How likely is your party of winning the 2008 election.

[Nym90]

The Republicans hold the electoral votes. Currently, we tend anywhere from 279-259 without Iowa or New Hampshire, and 290-248 with Iowa and New Hampshire. If we won the 2000 vote exactly in 2008, we would come out 278-260...more than even in 2000.

If we had a good candidate, like Pawlenty or McCain...and we could pull Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and all of the Bush 2004 states...and come over the 350 EV mark. If the democrats run a bad candidate, even candidates like George Allen and Mitt Romney would be able to cross well over 300 EV.

If Bush's approval ratings stay where they are, 350 electoral votes is a fantasy for the Republicans, regardless of who is nominated. Even 270 would be highly unlikely.

Of course, 2 and a half years is a lifetime in politics, so we'll see what happens. But I think it's a bit unrealistic to think that Bush and people's opinions of him won't be a factor in the 2008 election. A lot of people seem to be assuming that the election will be decided simply on the basis of the candidates involved without considering this factor.

[Nym90]

It would depend on how Democrats use their majorities in Congress vis-a-vis President Bush.  If, like the Republicans of 1994 (assuming Democrats gain control of both houses of Congress by similarly lopsided margins this November), they overreach themselves in pandering to the extreme Bush-hating elements of the party, we could see a possible Republican resurgence in 2008, which could also affect the presidential race.

That's true; the chances of the Republicans winning the Presidency in 2008 would probably be increased if the Democrats take control of Congress this year.