i support cantwell in this race. but i still cannot figure out why this race is even competitive.
I'll post my best explanation again.
There are generally three kinds of politicians in Washington. One is the Democrat who crosses partisan barriers. This rarely occurs outside of state office, but former Gov. Gary Locke is a good example. This Democrat can net about 60 percent of the vote and win some eastern Washington counties.
Next is the partisan split, which makes the Democrat win by about 3-10 votes. Kerry, Cantwell, and Murray are all this type of politician. Republicans vote Republican, Democrats vote Democrat, and independents vote Democrat by a small-to-moderate margin (determining the outcome).
Finally is the moderate, likeable Republican, which is what McGavick is playing as. They tend to come within two points or even win by up to four. Rarely in a partisan office can a Washington Republican go much above 50 percent as a non-incumbent.
It all depends on whether, like in Murray vs. Nethercutt, the Democrat can make the Republican look less attractive - or whether it will be a situation like Gregoire vs. Rossi.
That being said, I would be pretty shocked if semi-popular incumbent Cantwell lost against McGavick in a state which just elected generally-unpopular Gregoire against generally-popular Rossi in an open seat contest.
Hope that makes sense.
