Casey (D) with Lead over Incumbent Santorum (R) in Pennsylvania

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Strategic Vision on 2006-05-07

Summary: D: 49%, R: 41%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[© tweed]

Santorum's halved his disadvantage.  When do people start agreeing with me (and Mitty) on this one?

[Alcon]

Santorum's halved his disadvantage.  When do people start agreeing with me (and Mitty) on this one?

When Santorum starts leading?

[Keystone Phil]

I was just about to post this. I think it's now fair to say that the margin of Santorum's deficit is six-eight points. Yes, he's starting to comeback but Casey is still more likely to win at this point. Who knows what November holds.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Santorum's halved his disadvantage.  When do people start agreeing with me (and Mitty) on this one?

And he's still down 13 in Quinnipiac.

Besides, this "trend" logic is the same thing that had that electoral site having Kerry win Utah in their electoral projection. A candidate is not going to consistently rise at the same rate the entire race.

[Gustaf]

Actually, the perception about PA is based largely on the two college polls that should probably be thrown out. Strategic Vision has Santorum +2 compared to last poll, Quinnipac has him -2. We'll see what Rasmussen says first, but is isn't a given that Santorum is gaining yet.

[Sam Spade]

Actually, the perception about PA is based largely on the two college polls that should probably be thrown out. Strategic Vision has Santorum +2 compared to last poll, Quinnipac has him -2. We'll see what Rasmussen says first, but is isn't a given that Santorum is gaining yet.

Eh, Quinnipiac is a college poll also, but one that seems to get more street cred around here (though their 2004 numbers in PA were much like their's in NJ, i.e., all over the map).

Fact is, Pennsylvania is a state which polls normally and where most polls (even Zogby, not Interactive) should be trusted.  Also a range of 6% and 13% is well within the MOE of itself and would place the race at somewhere between +9% and +10%, which feels right to me.

Anyway, let's just wait until Mason-Dixon polls here again.  I'd even take SUSA in this case (though their results are much more volatile).

[Gustaf]

Actually, the perception about PA is based largely on the two college polls that should probably be thrown out. Strategic Vision has Santorum +2 compared to last poll, Quinnipac has him -2. We'll see what Rasmussen says first, but is isn't a given that Santorum is gaining yet.

Eh, Quinnipiac is a college poll also, but one that seems to get more street cred around here (though their 2004 numbers in PA were much like their's in NJ, i.e., all over the map).

Fact is, Pennsylvania is a state which polls normally and where most polls (even Zogby, not Interactive) should be trusted.  Also a range of 6% and 13% is well within the MOE of itself and would place the race at somewhere between +9% and +10%, which feels right to me.

Anyway, let's just wait until Mason-Dixon polls here again.  I'd even take SUSA in this case (though their results are much more volatile).

First off, Quinnipac has been verified by the Great Vorlon as not the same trash as other Uni polls.

Secondly, unless a poll is really, really bad you can always use it for trend analysis, which is what I was doing.

Now, it's obvious that Santorum has gained compared to when he was down by 15%, but I'm not sure he's pulling away from 10% towards 6% yet.