MO-Sen: No-Talent retakes the lead.

[Moooooo]

Rasmussen:

MISSOURI SENATE
Jim Talent (R) 43%
Claire McCaskill (D) 40%

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Missouri Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-05-08

Summary: D: 40%, R: 43%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'm still hoping that McCaskill can and will win, I know it makes no sense to predict now but I say:

MCCASKILL (D) 51%
TALENT (R) 48%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

An incumbent at 43% is still rather dismal though. My prediction is close to Adlai's.

[Alcon]

An incumbent at 43% is still rather dismal though. My prediction is close to Adlai's.

It depends on how many undecideds there are.  It always does.  Seventeen percent is a lot; 43 percent is not all that bad, considering.

[Sam Spade]

An incumbent at 43% is still rather dismal though. My prediction is close to Adlai's.

It depends on how many undecideds there are.  It always does.  Seventeen percent is a lot; 43 percent is not all that bad, considering.

I would also keep in mind that McCaskill should also be a decently well-known figure to most of the voting public, with her running for governor in 2004 and all.  So the potential for name-recognition factors (either positive or negative) is probably not that great.

Toss-up on my list this remains.

[Defarge]

500 likely voters?  Is that a tad low?

[Alcon]

500 likely voters?  Is that a tad low?

Not exceptionally.

[Sam Spade]

500 likely voters?  Is that a tad low?

Not really.  The problem, as in all Rasmussen state polls, is the one-day sample, which in my opinion creates a greater opportunity for outliers and weird internals.

[Eraserhead]

This is a tossup. I give McCaskill a slight edge only because Bush is so unpopular in the state right now.

[minionofmidas]

Tossup Rep. Probably not going to move very much over the next year. (Of course three points isn't "much".)

[Keystone Phil]

This is a tossup. I give McCaskill a slight edge only because Bush is so unpopular in the state right now.

I agree but you also have to consider how things are for the state leadership. Talent has pretty good approval ratings and he isn't associated with any scandals. However, his opponent is a well known state office holder who was a candidate in the close '04 Gubernatorial race. McCaskill lost that November but look at how unpopular the man she lost to, Matt Blunt, is right now.

This is basically a case where the two candidates are popular but the one (Talent) is associated with the wrong people right now. It's a tossup-slight lean Dem race.

[Gustaf]

There could be a sore winner effect..."remember what happened last time we didn't vote for McCaskill...let's not do it again"

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree.  People often can feel they made the wrong decision and wish to correct it.  For example, if Humphrey had run in 1976 I'm sure lots of people would have voted for them due to the memory of Nixon/Watergate.  Or in Britain in 1997, people voted Labour so heavily because they regretted losing their nerve in 1992. 

Especially as McCaskill received 48% of the vote in 2004, an amazing feat considering Bush carrying Missouri with 53% of the vote; the unpopularty of an existing Democratic administration in the state and the fact that she defeated an incumbent of her own party.  This year, she is definitely the best candidate to win and this race favours her.

[Keystone Phil]

Especially as McCaskill received 48% of the vote in 2004, an amazing feat considering Bush carrying Missouri with 53% of the vote

It's far from an amazing feat that she received two more points than Kerry.

[HardRCafé]

I agree.  People often can feel they made the wrong decision and wish to correct it.  For example,

Jean Carnahan.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that given the situation at the time in Missouri (plus I forgot Senator being re-elected with 56%) and all things considered, McCaskill did well.  No, I don't think Carnahan-Talent was one of those occaisons, the Bush 2002 Congressional election had a lot to do with it, and also I bet if Carnahan ran now she'd be doing better than McCaskill.