a little theory
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 03:38:13 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  a little theory
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: a little theory  (Read 6054 times)
kfseattle
Rookie
**
Posts: 65


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 31, 2004, 04:13:11 AM »

In playing around with Dave's electoral college calculator map over the past...what...almost a year now, I've come to a theory:

Whichever party wins three of these states wins the election:
Florida
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Ohio

Things get trickier when these four are split...the election turns on smaller battleground states that are tough to predict.

I think that 2004 will see these four split again, the same way as in 2000.  So I really think that the Democrats will need to pick up a state they lost (or several) in order to win.  I think we should go for states like Arkansas, Louisiana, maybe Missouri.  Maybe Wes Clark would help bring these states in.   Maybe Gephardt would bring Missouri and West Virginia.  Maybe Edwards could bring in North Carolina, but I see this as the most unlikely.

What do you think?  Is it possible (likely) for a party to win three of those four and lose the election?
I think you win with three of those...
Logged
Lunar
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2004, 12:53:46 PM »

Not Michigan.  Michigan won't be close unless the election is already lost.  Make that 2 out of 3 and you got the standard 2/3 rule of thumb that most people go by.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2004, 01:04:06 PM »

Bush main weakness lies in the big states. Discarding the 3 biggest, safe states, TX, CA and NY, leaves 5 roughly equal big states with more than 15 EVs: MI, IL, PA, OH and FL. Gore won those 3-2 and still lost the election. Since then it has been tilted even more against the Democrats. If Bush can win 3-2 there is no way Kerry can win the election. There simply are no plausible smaller states to make up about 30 EVs. On the other hand, Bush could lose 2-3 and still win. He could even lose 1-4 ans still win. If Bush loses all of the above states except Florida, he only needs to win 2 states, such as Oregon/Iowa and New Mexico to win the election.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2004, 01:06:26 PM »

I have a theory:  the guy with 270 EV's will win.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2004, 01:27:19 PM »

I have a theory:  the guy with 270 EV's will win.
Unless they change the size of the EC.
Logged
Shira
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,858


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2004, 01:40:47 PM »


Michigan looks good for Kerry at this point. In unbalanced election (e.g: Bush wins 53:47), Michigan will go with the winner.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,657


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2004, 01:46:23 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2004, 01:57:05 PM by The Vorlon »

Actually, to mildly disagree...

The small changes in the 2004 vs 2000 electoral college make there a lot of fairly sane scenarios where Bush loses 2 out of three of the Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania and still gets his required 270 EVs.

Bush lost:

     Wisconsin (10 EVs)
     Oregon (7 EVs)
     Iowa (7 EVs)
     New Mexico (5 EVs)

All by less than 1% in 2000.

He also lost Minnesota (10 EVs) by just 2.41%

Based on these 5 states, there are a few scenarios without Ohio for Bush that are entirely sane and reasonable.

The polls for Oregon, Iowa, and New Mexico are all mixed right now with neither candidate having a consistent lead, ie - they are tossups more or less. (Wisconsin seems to be semi-safe in the Kerry column)



There are also a number that are "sane" for Bush without Florida



As well as a (marginally) sane scenario without Florida AND Ohio





Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 31, 2004, 01:58:13 PM »

Unless Bush completely collapses it is actually looking safer for him as we get further into the thing.
Logged
Reds4
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 789


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 31, 2004, 02:06:45 PM »

i agree with lunar, MI can't be included in that group. I would guess Kerry will win Michigan by 6 points if it is about a tie nationally.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,150


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 31, 2004, 02:13:29 PM »


I'm not sure Michigan is such an easy Kerry state.  The recent polls have shown it as more or less a toss-up.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2004, 02:54:17 PM »

Vorlon, I think that's exactly what I said, though I didn't use any fancy maps for it... Wink
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,657


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2004, 03:38:27 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2004, 03:40:08 PM by The Vorlon »

Vorlon, I think that's exactly what I said, though I didn't use any fancy maps for it... Wink

yes you did, actually....

I guess I am a visual learner, not too good at that "read'n" stuff.

Cheesy
Logged
Monty
Rookie
**
Posts: 92


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2004, 04:22:27 PM »

Ohio is Kerry's best shot at winning a close election.  The only other scenarios I see Kerry winning are by holding the Gore States and flipping...
1) Florida (duh...)
2) Missouri (Gephardt for VP?)
3) Nevada + West Virginia (Is Yucca Mountain enough to flip it to Kerry?)

If Kerry can flip Ohio & West Virginia, he'll have a nice 15-point cushion, and I can go to bed after Iowa & Wisconsin are called for Kerry, knowing that he can lose New Mexico & Oregon and still win. Smiley
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 31, 2004, 04:23:14 PM »

Vorlon, I think that's exactly what I said, though I didn't use any fancy maps for it... Wink

yes you did, actually....

I guess I am a visual learner, not too good at that "read'n" stuff.

Cheesy

I've been following those "notes to self" eagerly anticipating progress... Wink
Logged
struct310
Rookie
**
Posts: 246


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 31, 2004, 04:31:28 PM »

Hey Vorlon, on your map Oregon is really red, but shouldnt it be New Mexico red?  Oregons even more of a tossup this time around than last.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,657


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2004, 04:46:08 PM »
« Edited: May 31, 2004, 06:06:54 PM by The Vorlon »

Hey Vorlon, on your map Oregon is really red, but shouldnt it be New Mexico red?  Oregons even more of a tossup this time around than last.

My map represents a current estimate.

Kerry up 2-4% in Oregon currently seems about right, but hey up 0-2 or 4-6 I would not argue too hard either way.

Oregon is always a tough state to call.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,150


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2004, 04:52:08 PM »

Hey Vorlon, on your map Oregon is really red, but shouldnt it be New Mexico red?  Oregons even more of a tossup this time around than last.

My map represents a current estimate.

Kerry up 2-4% in Oregon currently seems about right, but hey up 0-2 or 4-6 I would nor argue too hard either way.

Oregon is always a tough state to call.

FWIW, there have been six public polls in Oregon since April and none of them have shown Kerry leading by more than two.  

They were:
Kerry +2
Kerry +2
Tied
Tied
Bush +2
Bush +5

Pretty much the exact definitition of a Toss-Up state.
Logged
The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,657


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2004, 05:02:34 PM »

Hey Vorlon, on your map Oregon is really red, but shouldnt it be New Mexico red?  Oregons even more of a tossup this time around than last.

My map represents a current estimate.

Kerry up 2-4% in Oregon currently seems about right, but hey up 0-2 or 4-6 I would nor argue too hard either way.

Oregon is always a tough state to call.

FWIW, there have been six public polls in Oregon since April and none of them have shown Kerry leading by more than two.  

They were:
Kerry +2
Kerry +2
Tied
Tied
Bush +2
Bush +5

Pretty much the exact definitition of a Toss-Up state.

The most recent poll, a May 6th Research 2000 poll http://www.portlandtribune.com/archview.cgi?id=24364 has Kerry up 4% head to head, and up 2% with Nader. So I figure Kerry up 2-4% seems about right.

Of the admittedly weak lot, the Research 2000 is also the poll I'd be most inclined to trust.

But as I said, Kerry up 0-2%, or pure toss up is not something different enough from Kerry up 2-4 to be worth the debate.

The state is close, it's 5 months left to go. Oregon is very much in play.



Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2004, 06:45:00 PM »

Still 5 months off!! When will it get here already!!!! I have already gotten two non voters to register and plan on throwing a Bush/Cheney party. Their are over 6 of them going on in my town.
Logged
Blazers93
Lamrock
Rookie
**
Posts: 83
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2004, 09:14:23 PM »

We, the democrats could lose all those states and still win. 260- Pennsylvania: 21- Michigan: 17= 222. If we can't win those states we will win: 222+ Arizona: 10+ Nevada: 5+ West Virginia: 5+ Missouri: 11+ Louisiana: 9+ Colorado: 9+ Arkansas: 6= 277. There are more states the Democrats will win plus we will win those 85 Electoral Votes.
Logged
12th Doctor
supersoulty
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,584
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2004, 09:17:00 PM »

We, the democrats could lose all those states and still win. 260- Pennsylvania: 21- Michigan: 17= 222. If we can't win those states we will win: 222+ Arizona: 10+ Nevada: 5+ West Virginia: 5+ Missouri: 11+ Louisiana: 9+ Colorado: 9+ Arkansas: 6= 277. There are more states the Democrats will win plus we will win those 85 Electoral Votes.

Ha, you can't be serious?  You won't win all of those states and if Kerry loses Pennsylvania and Ohio, it's all over.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 31, 2004, 09:29:20 PM »

We, the democrats could lose all those states and still win. 260- Pennsylvania: 21- Michigan: 17= 222. If we can't win those states we will win: 222+ Arizona: 10+ Nevada: 5+ West Virginia: 5+ Missouri: 11+ Louisiana: 9+ Colorado: 9+ Arkansas: 6= 277. There are more states the Democrats will win plus we will win those 85 Electoral Votes.

All those states are out of your parties reach with the possible exception of Nevada.
Logged
Blazers93
Lamrock
Rookie
**
Posts: 83
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 31, 2004, 09:41:19 PM »

Well, we are looking at a Kerry landslide. I mean, Bush's numbers consistantly go down and he is basically messed up. If you want, see my prediction. It is first or second on the most EV Dem.
Logged
??????????
StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 31, 2004, 09:49:28 PM »

You're out of your mind. (pardon) If you really believe Kerry is really going to win all those states.. Here's the map.



Explain how Montana, N.Dakota, SD, Colorado, Ariz, MO, Arkansas, LA, TN, KY, IN, VA, WVA, NC, SC, GA, Florida are going for Kerry? You can't he is ahead in EVERY one fo those states and mostly by large margains. You are insane if you believe that is really going to happen. Bush is up almost 12 in TN and almost 10 in LA the same for NorthDakota and South Dakota. Barring a MAJOR MAJOR scandal that will Never happen. I often do read your predictions and they are a good laugh.
Logged
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 31, 2004, 09:51:23 PM »

Louisiana, Colorado and Arkansas?

Ok, we'll win Connecticut and Vermont.  (Crack pipe now passed back to you)
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 11 queries.