"Lock" on the Presidency???

[Beet]

I think that Republicans may have had a lock on the presidency between 1896 and 1928. The only reason Wilson won is because of the Republican split between the Bull Moose and Taft, if you look at the vote totals, had the Republicans been united they would have won by a landslide. Also, the 1916 election was the narrowest in the entire 20th century, despite the strong economy and the fact that Wilson kept the U.S. out of the war.

[Beet]

On the other hand, had it not been for Linda Tripp and the whole scandal in 1998, Gore would not have pursued the strategy of "distancing" himself from his economically successful predecessor. If Gore had become President and 9-11 had happened (although there is ample evidence that Democrats were more serious about antiterrorism and Republicans preferred to dawdle in missile defense plans), Democrats would have reaped the big bounce that Republicans reaped post-9/11.

[Beet]

Clearly something is going to have to happen before Florida becomes competitive. The primaries and campaign may provide the Dems a bounce early in 2004, but that won't be enough to survive summer and fall.