dazzleman
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Posts: 13,777
Political Matrix
E: 1.88, S: 1.59
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« on: November 09, 2003, 01:04:14 PM » |
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I don't think one party will ever have a long-term lock on the presidency.
Under true democracy, the two parties will split roughly 50-50 over the long term. That was not true in the south for a long period after the civil war, but the south cannot be considered to have been a true democracy during that period.
In the modern political era (post 1968), vote splits in the south have returned to more normal split of 60-40 Republican in presidential elections.
I think that under a competitive system, there is a natural correcting mechanism if one party becomes too dominant. The other party will eventually figure out why it can't attract support, and change its positions. Also, a dominant party will eventually split into factions that will open up possibilities for the opposition party.
The Democrats were locked out of the presidency for most of the period from 1968-1992 because they did not offer positions on issues that could attract sufficient nationwide support. The party changed (or appeared to change) in 1992, and conditions also changed at that time to the benefit of the Democrats, de-emphasizing issues where the Democrats had been particularly weak (such as national defense) in the past, opening the way for Democratic victories in the next 2 elections.
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