I'm beginning to doubt if the Democrats can unseat Bush in 2004, especially considering they're behind in places like Minnesota! This is the sort of place they need to win just to break even! They really shouldn't be behind in Michigan, Wisconsin or Minnesota, these should be core Democratic states.
One thing I'm sure of, I predict the North East will swing to the Dems, even if the rest of the country goes the other way. I reckon Vermont, Mass & RI may give the Dems +60% or +70%. I also predict they'll gain New Hampshire off the GOP. This is one of the few states where the Republicans have lost support since 2000.
Which specific figures are you looking at, not that I necessarily disagree with any of the conclusions.
I'm especially interested in the time frame of your numbers because for example the GOP has a trifecta in New Hamp. only last year winning all congressional and senate seats up, retaining the legislature and electing a Governor....all with healthier margins than the last.
When does your info say the swing towards democrats have occured??
I'll try and find the source. It was based on voter identification with the Dems and GOP. The percentage who identified themselves as Republicans increased in most states, except in about 3 north eastern states, where they declined. New Hampshire showed the biggest decline since 2000, however it was only 2%, which I'm sure is within the margin of error. Iowa should the biggest increase in voters who regard themselves as Republicans.
