If you take the most recent poll form all the states (or use the 2000 result if no polls this year) and then use the actual voter turnout from 2000 to create one big "super poll" this is what it looks like...
I used public polls only, from
http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html other than the two new ones from Minnesota and Illinois which came out today.
This 50 state result shows (surprise!) the race is tied.
A
long way from perfect I certainly admit, (some polls many many weeks old for example) but it does match up pretty darn well actually. You could go state by state and could get into picking polls (I just used the most recent one, didn't do any picking and choosing) But it is interesting how closely things currently agree.