Do the state polls add up?
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  Do the state polls add up?
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Author Topic: Do the state polls add up?  (Read 1943 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: May 31, 2004, 04:50:42 PM »
« edited: May 31, 2004, 08:19:04 PM by The Vorlon »

If you take the most recent poll form all the states (or use the 2000 result if no polls this year) and then use the actual voter turnout from 2000 to create one big "super poll" this is what it looks like...

I used public polls only, from http://www.davidwissing.com/bushkerrystate2004.html other than the two new ones from Minnesota and Illinois which came out today.

This 50 state result shows (surprise!) the race is tied.

A long way from perfect I certainly admit, (some polls many many weeks old for example) but it does match up pretty darn well actually. You could go state by state and could get into picking polls (I just used the most recent one, didn't do any picking and choosing) But it is interesting how closely things currently agree.

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struct310
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« Reply #1 on: May 31, 2004, 05:06:00 PM »

Not really, the Oregon, Washington, and New Hampshire margins are too large.  New Hampshire should go to Kerry. Oregon should go to Bush and Washington should be much closer.  We need a new Washington poll out, where is it?
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classical liberal
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« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2004, 07:18:30 PM »

The Rasmussen poll in NH has Kerry over Bush 47-45, not Bush over Kerry 47-45.
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agcatter
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« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2004, 09:04:36 PM »

These state polls do indeed seem to line up well with the current national polls.  I didn't really think they would be that much in line.  
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