My Prediction

[12th Doctor]

EXTREMELY over-optimistic.  No way Bush does that well.  I'm not saying a Bush win isn't possible, but it will be a lot closer than your map.

Extremely?  Huh?  His map only has Bush winning by a couple points.  Note how New Hampshire goes Kerry.

He has Bush getting over 60% in most southern states, just not possible due to the black population.

In most southern states?  Hardly.  I only have those margins in South Carolina (which went almost 58% for Bush last time), Alabama and Mississippi.  That's just three according ot my count.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bush hit his ceiling in those states in 2000. The only whites who didn't vote for him are the few poor liberals stuck in those nightmarish hellholes, and that won't change this year. He'd have to get around 90% of the white vote in Mississippi to get 60%. Plus all three of those states have gained black population since 2000, there's been a bit of a migration of blacks back to the south.

[12th Doctor]

Bush hit his ceiling in those states in 2000. The only whites who didn't vote for him are the few poor liberals stuck in those nightmarish hellholes, and that won't change this year. He'd have to get around 90% of the white vote in Mississippi to get 60%. Plus all three of those states have gained black population since 2000, there's been a bit of a migration of blacks back to the south.

I disagree.  I see it that Kerry will imporve on Gore's percentages in California and New York, probably by as much as three percent in each.  This will give Kerry an additional 500,000 or so votes from these states.  Bush, however, will gain broadly in many smaller and some southern state, especially Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Georgia.  This will then grant Bush an additional 500,000 votes or so and thise numbers will even out.  Bush will barely win in Wisconsin.  Bush will take Iowa.  And win by slim margins (about 2%) in PA.  Thus the race will finish with a slim Bush PV victory and a slightly wider Bush EV victory.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What makes you think Bush is going to improve in the Deep South? He basically got as much as the white vote that's possible in 2000.

[classical liberal]

Bush will loose a bit of his support in the new south and has pretty much maxed out in the old south.

[muon2]

Much as many republicans would disagree with me this is the case…

I'm one who would not generally disagree on your Joe-Public quotes. It matches plenty of the thoughts I hear around my neighborhood.

I won't back you on your Senate sentiments however. And we could quibble over the map, but there are enough tossups to let it go for June.

So this election is a “Liked” (with reservations) President running for re-election in what should be a fairly open race against a Democratic Candidate who overall is probably weaker than him. I would say that Bush is set to win by default through Kerry just nether being a strong candidate or the right candidate to challenge him but that would be to underrate Bush and that has been a big mistake for many in he past . But that is basically the case, against a strong, charismatic Democrat Bush would be behind by a noticeable margin in the polls and imho would probably lose against Kerry I think that in the end he will win. And Bush winning might not even be a terrible thing just so long as the Democrats retake the senate .


...this is how the race looks to me at the moment... although I think Kerry could (With Iraq still deteriorating and with Edwards as VP) pull of wins in both WI and PA and perhaps even WV but OBP i doubt it...
 

[??????????]

Not for the Iraqis. They are much more scared of Americans than Hussein and other Iraqi criminals.

Thats a very trollish comment.

[Smash255]

Bush hit his ceiling in those states in 2000. The only whites who didn't vote for him are the few poor liberals stuck in those nightmarish hellholes, and that won't change this year. He'd have to get around 90% of the white vote in Mississippi to get 60%. Plus all three of those states have gained black population since 2000, there's been a bit of a migration of blacks back to the south.

I disagree.  I see it that Kerry will imporve on Gore's percentages in California and New York, probably by as much as three percent in each.  This will give Kerry an additional 500,000 or so votes from these states.  Bush, however, will gain broadly in many smaller and some southern state, especially Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Florida and Georgia.  This will then grant Bush an additional 500,000 votes or so and thise numbers will even out.  Bush will barely win in Wisconsin.  Bush will take Iowa.  And win by slim margins (about 2%) in PA.  Thus the race will finish with a slim Bush PV victory and a slightly wider Bush EV victory.

Once again what are you basing this on.  EVERY SINGLE Flkorida poll puts it very close.  Seven polls in a row it has gone back & forth.    Every Arkansas poll has it close.  Most the Iowa polls show Kerry ahead, Kerry has been ahead in 4 PA polls in a row, EVERY SINGLE Wisconsin poll with the exception of Badger (which was WAY off in 00 shows Kerry ahead comfortably in Wisconsin, so what are you basing your results on???