New England City Results

[nclib]

What was the largest city in New England to vote for Bush in 2004?

[ag]

New England has one big city - Boston, and it, obviously, didn't. The rest are fairly smallish (if you count all of the Boston Metro as one city): Worcester is the second-largest, I think, followed by Hartford and New Haven. None of these has even 200,000 residents. In northern NE there aren't even 100,000-strong cities.  Still, this would be an interesting thing to check.

[Alcon]

I have not checked this, but my guess would be Manchester, New Hampshire.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Alcon's right, although it voted for Bush very marginally (and it does have over 100k) Out of cities where Bush got over 50%, probably Greenwich, CT.

[Alcon]

And, to cover the last base, the most conservative part of New England with a significant population is probably Bedford, New Hampshire.

[muon2]

These are the cities and towns over 100K in New England:
Boston MA 569K
Providence RI 178K
Worcester MA 175K
Springfield MA 152K
Bridgeport CT 140K
Hartford CT 125K
New Haven CT 125K
Stamford CT 120K
Manchester NH 109K
Waterbury CT 108K
Lowell MA 104K
Cambridge MA 101K

Bush only carried Manchester, and it was with less than 50%.
The largest community with over 50% was Greenwich CT (pop 62K).

[Cubby]

And the strange thing is while the rest of Fairfield County swung to the right in 2004, Greenwich went the other way (slightly).

Bush's best town in Connecticut in 2004 was Wolcott (population 16,000) a suburb of Waterbury, where he got 62.62% of the vote. Gore actually won it in 2000!

In 2000, it was Darien (population 19,000) a wealthy suburb not far from Greenwich, where he got 63.09% of the vote.

In both elections, the City of Hartford was the Democrats best performance, by about 80-85% both times.

[Alcon]

And the strange thing is while the rest of Fairfield County swung to the right in 2004, Greenwich went the other way (slightly).

Bush's best town in Connecticut in 2004 was Wolcott (population 16,000) a suburb of Waterbury, where he got 62.62% of the vote. Gore actually won it in 2000!

In 2000, it was Darien (population 19,000) a wealthy suburb not far from Greenwich, where he got 63.09% of the vote.

In both elections, the City of Hartford was the Democrats best performance, by about 80-85% both times.

Yeah, what was with Wolcott?  Lieberman effect?  It has a weird voting history.

[Nym90]

I wonder if New Hampshire is the only state in the country in which the largest city in the state is more Republican than the state as a whole.

Surely it must be the only state that voted for Kerry in which the largest city within the state voted for Bush.

[Alcon]

I wonder if New Hampshire is the only state in the country in which the largest city in the state is more Republican than the state as a whole.

It is hard to tell, but probably.  The only states where I can't definitely say the biggest city is more Democratic than state average are Alaska and Hawai'i.  I think both Anchorage and Honolulu probably are more Democratic than state average, but unexceptionally so.

[nclib]

These are the cities and towns over 100K in New England:
Boston MA 569K
Providence RI 178K
Worcester MA 175K
Springfield MA 152K
Bridgeport CT 140K
Hartford CT 125K
Stamford CT 120K
Manchester NH 109K
Waterbury CT 108K
Lowell MA 104K
Cambridge MA 101K

Bush only carried Manchester, and it was with less than 50%.
The largest community with over 50% was Greenwich CT (pop 62K).

Interesting. Does anyone know the largest city in Massachusetts to vote for Bush?

[muon2]

These are the cities and towns over 100K in New England:
Boston MA 569K
Providence RI 178K
Worcester MA 175K
Springfield MA 152K
Bridgeport CT 140K
Hartford CT 125K
Stamford CT 120K
Manchester NH 109K
Waterbury CT 108K
Lowell MA 104K
Cambridge MA 101K

Bush only carried Manchester, and it was with less than 50%.
The largest community with over 50% was Greenwich CT (pop 62K).

Interesting. Does anyone know the largest city in Massachusetts to vote for Bush?

North Andover, pop 28K.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oklahoma City is possibly more Republican than Oklahoma as a whole. Phoenix might be too, although I doubt it (in fact, I'd be Phoenix voted for Kerry by a very small margin if I had to guess)

[muon2]

Oklahoma City is possibly more Republican than Oklahoma as a whole. Phoenix might be too, although I doubt it (in fact, I'd be Phoenix voted for Kerry by a very small margin if I had to guess)

I don't think Okla City is either. Oklahoma County was just fractionally less for Bush than the state.

[Cubby]

And the strange thing is while the rest of Fairfield County swung to the right in 2004, Greenwich went the other way (slightly).

Bush's best town in Connecticut in 2004 was Wolcott (population 16,000) a suburb of Waterbury, where he got 62.62% of the vote. Gore actually won it in 2000!

In 2000, it was Darien (population 19,000) a wealthy suburb not far from Greenwich, where he got 63.09% of the vote.

In both elections, the City of Hartford was the Democrats best performance, by about 80-85% both times.

Yeah, what was with Wolcott?  Lieberman effect?  It has a weird voting history.

I honestly don't know. It was a big shock when the town data came out and a place other than Darien or Greenwich was most Republican. Bush seems to have had his best improvement in New Haven County, of which Wolcott is a part, a lot of towns switched sides in '04. Even the city of Waterbury (108,000) barely voted for Kerry. Their newspaper is called the Waterbury Republican by the way. The only thing besides the "9/11 Effect" that I can think of for a reason is that the Defense industry in CT has been booming due to the war these past 5 years, and maybe that played a role.

 

[minionofmidas]

I wonder if New Hampshire is the only state in the country in which the largest city in the state is more Republican than the state as a whole.

It is hard to tell, but probably.  The only states where I can't definitely say the biggest city is more Democratic than state average are Alaska and Hawai'i.  I think both Anchorage and Honolulu probably are more Democratic than state average, but unexceptionally so.

On the figures I compiled a while ago, I had Anchorage 59.9% Bush. This excludes some postal ballots from a heavily Republican part of the city, but it also excludes all early votes, which were somewhat more Democratic than postal and day votes. Safe to say Anchorage is not more Republican than Alaska.
Honolulu ... city or CDP? The official city equals the entire island of O'ahu, and was certainly a good bit more Republican than the state. The CDP, I dunno. Downtown was heavily Democrat, outer suburbs the most Republican part of the island but they're mostly outside the CDP. Probably more Democratic than the state, all told.

[Alcon]

Thanks, Lewis.  As always, you know a disturbing amount.

I had forgotten about Hawai'i's deeply weird CDP/city system.  Since there is probably no county in the world that draws election districts based on CDPs, I would have to count the city - so I suppose Hawai'i and New Hampshire would be the states, with Alaska coming closest (?) to being a third.

[Q]

These are the cities and towns over 100K in New England:
Boston MA 569K
Providence RI 178K
Worcester MA 175K
Springfield MA 152K
Bridgeport CT 140K
Hartford CT 125K
Stamford CT 120K
Manchester NH 109K
Waterbury CT 108K
Lowell MA 104K
Cambridge MA 101K

What about New Haven (124K)?

[muon2]

These are the cities and towns over 100K in New England:
Boston MA 569K
Providence RI 178K
Worcester MA 175K
Springfield MA 152K
Bridgeport CT 140K
Hartford CT 125K
New Haven CT 125K
Stamford CT 120K
Manchester NH 109K
Waterbury CT 108K
Lowell MA 104K
Cambridge MA 101K

What about New Haven (124K)?

Thank for the catch. I inadvertently deleted it when I deleted the spreadsheet entry for New Haven County. I've corrected my original post.

[jimrtex]

Thanks, Lewis.  As always, you know a disturbing amount.

I had forgotten about Hawai'i's deeply weird CDP/city system.  Since there is probably no county in the world that draws election districts based on CDPs, I would have to count the city - so I suppose Hawai'i and New Hampshire would be the states, with Alaska coming closest (?) to being a third.

Virginia Beach and Jacksonville.  Jacksonville is about 95% of the population of Duval County, and Duval County was 5.7% more Republican than the State.   Even if Jacksonville only had 90% of the voter turnout for the county, it would still be more Republican than the state.

Bush carried Lexington, but not as strong as the rest of the state.

[Alcon]

Thanks, Lewis.  As always, you know a disturbing amount.

I had forgotten about Hawai'i's deeply weird CDP/city system.  Since there is probably no county in the world that draws election districts based on CDPs, I would have to count the city - so I suppose Hawai'i and New Hampshire would be the states, with Alaska coming closest (?) to being a third.

Virginia Beach and Jacksonville.  Jacksonville is about 95% of the population of Duval County, and Duval County was 5.7% more Republican than the State.   Even if Jacksonville only had 90% of the voter turnout for the county, it would still be more Republican than the state.

Bush carried Lexington, but not as strong as the rest of the state.

Jacksonville is 100% of Duval County's population, actually, so Jacksonville counts.  I had forgotten about Jacksonville.  Virginia Beach counts too, of course.  Thanks for catching me there. 

Louisville has since (due to consolidated city/county government) taken over Lexington's title, but Lexington is still nowhere near Kentucky's voting average anyway.   There are a good number of states where the largest city likely voted Republican (the Dakotas, Nebraska, Oklahoma...)

[dazzleman]

Alcon's right, although it voted for Bush very marginally (and it does have over 100k) Out of cities where Bush got over 50%, probably Greenwich, CT.

Greenwich isn't a city.  It's a large town.

[jimrtex]

Virginia Beach and Jacksonville.  Jacksonville is about 95% of the population of Duval County, and Duval County was 5.7% more Republican than the State.   Even if Jacksonville only had 90% of the voter turnout for the county, it would still be more Republican than the state.

Jacksonville is 100% of Duval County's population, actually, so Jacksonville counts.

It depends on how you count.  Jacksonville Beach, Neptune Beach, Atlantic Beach. and Baldwin have their own city governments, but residents also vote for Jacksonville city council members and mayor. 

But they are small enough, that even if they went 100% Bush, that Jacksonville proper would have been more Bush than Florida.

[socaldem]

I wonder if New Hampshire is the only state in the country in which the largest city in the state is more Republican than the state as a whole.

It is hard to tell, but probably.  The only states where I can't definitely say the biggest city is more Democratic than state average are Alaska and Hawai'i.  I think both Anchorage and Honolulu probably are more Democratic than state average, but unexceptionally so.

Yeah, in Hawaii Bush's numbers in the Honolulu-based district were a lot better than in the outer island district.  Of course, the better performance for bush may be because of military-related voting on Oahu outside of Honalulu city limits.

New Mexico's somewhat of a close call.  Albuquerque is about as evenly divided between the parties as the state as a whole.  In legislative and other elections, though, the GOP continues to be competitive in Albuquerque whereas dems clean up statewide.

Oklahoma, of course, is definitely a state where the cities are more GOP than the outlying areas.  However, since Dems have done so poorly recently in their party's traditional rural strongholds, the margins in the big GOP cities--tulsa and Oklahoma--may be better than in the rest of the state.

What about Florida?  While definitely not the state's largest population center, the largest city is Jacksonville.  I don't have the data on hand, but I'm guessing that it went to Bush a little more heavily than Florida did in '04. 

[ottermax]

I wonder if New Hampshire is the only state in the country in which the largest city in the state is more Republican than the state as a whole.

It is hard to tell, but probably.  The only states where I can't definitely say the biggest city is more Democratic than state average are Alaska and Hawai'i.  I think both Anchorage and Honolulu probably are more Democratic than state average, but unexceptionally so.

Can someone explain Manchester's Republican leanings?

From what I know of Hawaii, Republicans are strongest in the Waikiki area of Downtown Honolulu, and the Kahala area to the east of Downtown, (which is one of the most affluent parts of Oahu). Hawaii differs from the rest of the U.S. in that its largest city is the most Republican part of the state. Overall, Hawaii is very Democratic (just look at the state legislature)