Kean, Jr (R) and Menendez still Close in New Jersey

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: New Jersey Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-05-16

Summary: D: 37%, R: 40%, U: 23%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

Menendez will take this. I can't say I'm real concerned at the moment about this one.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Menendez will take this. I can't say I'm real concerned at the moment about this one.

Yeah, if it's like Corzine's governor race, we all know how the undecideds will split.

[Ben.]

Menendez will take this. I can't say I'm real concerned at the moment about this one.

Yeah, if it's like Corzine's governor race, we all know how the undecideds will split.

Hmmm... but thing is this isnt Corzine's governor race, whats more this is Kean (the Bob Casey of NJ) not some GOP none entity.

[Sam Spade]

Menendez will take this. I can't say I'm real concerned at the moment about this one.

Yeah, if it's like Corzine's governor race, we all know how the undecideds will split.

Interestingly, at this point (June 12) in the Corzine-Forrester contest, the three most recent polls showed Corzine +7, +10, and +10.

Corzine ended up winning by +10%.

Right now, the difference is that both Kean and Menendez are polling in Forrester territory.  If all elections were similar, we would expect all 10% of those presently undecided to break towards Menendez.

Of course, not all elections are the same.  I know the way New Jersey typically works, but as I told Lewis, until I see things change, it would be rather presumptuous of me to presume that the same thing will happen again regardless of candidate and situation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2004 is a better analogy than Corzine's governor race.

Remember all those polls that had Bush ahead by about this much and Bush and Kerry in about the same range and people saying Bush had a chance to win New Jersey?

Obviously Kean is a much better candidate for NJ than Bush, but it's also a much worse time for the GOP.

[ATFFL]

I do not recall Bush ever leading in New Jersey.  I remember some ties, but no leads.  Could just be slipping my memory.

New Jersey decides late, and it tends to break hard for one candidate or another.  If the Republican is a decent fit for New Jersey and they cna think of a reason to not vote for the democrat, the Republican has a chance to win. 

Kean is a good fit and his scandal gives New Jersey a reason to not vote democrat.  Kean has a real chance.

[Sam Spade]

2004 is a better analogy than Corzine's governor race.

Remember all those polls that had Bush ahead by about this much and Bush and Kerry in about the same range and people saying Bush had a chance to win New Jersey?

Obviously Kean is a much better candidate for NJ than Bush, but it's also a much worse time for the GOP.

Interestingly, after Kerry was named as the nominee, only one publicly released non-partisan polls out of the 43 that were released had Bush up on Kerry.  It was a SurveyUSA poll conducted right after the Republican convention that had Bush +4.  Needless to say, SUSA is the polling company most tied to turnout issues; I think it's safe to call it the Gallup of state polling for this reason.

Six publicly released non-partisan polls had Bush tied with Kerry during this period, but 3 of them were Strategic Vision, whom you consider a Republican polling firm anyways. 

Only 3 of the 44 polls ever had Bush getting higher than the 46% that he got in New Jersey on election day.

What am I trying to say here (other than Republicans were often too optimistic on this one):  This is essentially an open seat race right now, with both candidates mired in Forrester line territory.  The future will decide this one.  If any race can be compared to it, consider Corzine-Franks 2000, the last truly open seat Senate race we've had in Jersey.

[Eraserhead]

First, at this point last year, Corzine was ahead by around 10% by all accounts.

Second, the one, maybe two polls that had Bush leading in NJ were from around August, after the resgination of Jim McGreevey.

This race as of now, is a dead heat. I don't expect that to change at all until November 7. I honestly don't know which one will pull it off, but either very well could.

lol Its not gonna happen.

[TomC]

If I lived in NJ, this is a race I might vote Republican in.

[MasterJedi]

Menedez winning is one of the horrible things likely to happen.

[Eraserhead]

It isn't impossible, eraserhead. Kean isn't like any nominee for Statewide office in recent NJ Republican history.

If this was a good year for Republicans, Kean may have had a great shot but this year...I would be beyond shocked.

[Gustaf]

"Clean Kean" sounds like a good slogan then.

This remains tied in my book, but I give Menendez a slight edge because of the Democratic strength in NJ.

Eraserhead, does your name derive from the Lynch movie?

[bullmoose88]

When was the last time NJ elected a Republican senator?

[Sam Spade]

When was the last time NJ elected a Republican senator?

Clifford Case, 1972.

[Eraserhead]

"Clean Kean" sounds like a good slogan then.

This remains tied in my book, but I give Menendez a slight edge because of the Democratic strength in NJ.

Eraserhead, does your name derive from the Lynch movie?

Yes.