1988 scenario

[kashifsakhan]

FROM WIKIPEDIA:
Controversy broke Biden's candidacy for the U.S. presidency in the 1988 Presidential campaign. He was found to have plagiarized a speech from British Labour Party leader Neil Kinnock. The speech, embarrassingly, included details of Kinnock's personal and ancestral life which were not true in Biden's case. After Biden withdrew from the race, it was learned that he had correctly credited Kinnock on other occasions but failed to do so in an Iowa speech that was recorded and distributed to reporters by aides to Michael Dukakis, the eventual nominee. Dukakis fired the senior aide responsible, but the damage had already been done to Biden.

I've got a few questions relating to this:

What do you think would have happened had this information not been leaked to the media?

What were Biden's chances of getting the Democratic nomination?

How would Biden have fared against Bush in the 1988 election if he had gotten the nomination, and who would  have been his running mate?

[adam]

Scandal or not, I don't think Biden had much of a chance against Dukakis. Dukakis was the governor of a state that was doing fairly well and Biden was just some unintresting senator for Delaware. Had Biden been nominated however, the map would have looked something like this...

Bush - 53% - 416 EVs
Biden - 46% - 122 EVs
Other - 1%

[jokerman]

Biden's "plagarized" speech is not leaked to the press and is never made a story and he doesn't drop out.

Iowa Caucuses preceed much as before, however Biden manages to gain a strong second behind Dick Gephardt.  Michael Dukakis doesn't even garner a single delegate, receiving only 13% behind Paul Simon's 16%, Biden's 29% and Gephardt's 32%.  This loss is a major setback for Dukakis and the momentum of Biden's upexpected strong finish causes Biden to upset Dukakis in New Hampshire, with Biden capturing 35%, Dukakis 33%, Gephardt 16% and Gore 15%.

In the end, Biden manages to wrap up the primary a week or so after Super Tuesday.  Senator Biden chooses as his running mate moderate Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton.  The Republican primary proceedes as normal with Bush choosing Senator Dan Quayle.

The race proceeds without much controversy.  Other than Iran-Contra and a few other minor things people are fond of the Reagan Presidency and Bush is able to ride that throughout the campaign to become the frontrunner.  Biden and Clinton both win their respective debates, making the race appear close but it's not enough to quite win the day.

Final result:

PV:
Bush/Quayle - 49.84%
Biden/Clinton - 49.23%

EC:
Bush/Quayle - 283
Biden/Clinton - 255

[Reignman]

I dunno.  1988 was a Democrat-advantage election.  A competent Democratic candidate wouldn't have blown it.