will little casey win every county in the pa?
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  will little casey win every county in the pa?
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Author Topic: will little casey win every county in the pa?  (Read 2805 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: June 05, 2006, 03:41:23 PM »

haha.  just trying to get phil's blood pumping.

i, of course, say no.

in fact, i still predict santorum will win the race.  however, i also predicted bush would carry oregon and we see how that went.
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Wakie
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« Reply #1 on: June 05, 2006, 03:47:48 PM »

Tricky Ricky will do his best to buy this election but I doubt he'll succeed.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #2 on: June 05, 2006, 03:49:01 PM »

Santorum will probably win a majority of counties.
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Wakie
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« Reply #3 on: June 05, 2006, 03:59:08 PM »

Santorum will probably win a majority of counties.

He'll win the T but he'll lose Allegheny and Philadelphia counties.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4 on: June 05, 2006, 04:01:30 PM »

Uh, no.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2006, 04:14:34 PM »

Santorum will probably win a majority of counties.

He'll win the T but he'll lose Allegheny and Philadelphia counties.
Well, obviously. Smiley
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Galactic Overlord
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2006, 06:51:38 PM »

Santorum will likely win the T region as he usually does.  The question, though, is by how much.  Santorum scored around 70% in many of those counties.  Granted, they are not heavily populated, but every little bit counts.

The big question mark involve the three suburban counties around Philly: Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks.  They didn't take a shine to Casey's dad and don't seem to like Casey Junior either due to his pro-life views.  But I don't know what they're going to do this time.  Then there's Western PA.  Five counties to the west and south of Allegheny County voted for Klink and will likely do so again for Casey.  Santorum barely carried Cambria County by a point, I would bet Casey wins it this time. 

I guess that Santorum will lose ground in Western PA and in the areas around Scranton (Paul Kanjorski's district).  But how he does in the T turnout wise, in the Philly burbs, in the Leigh Valley and in Erie, I'm not sure.
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Gabu
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2006, 07:14:21 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: June 05, 2006, 07:29:46 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.

I think Heinz did in his last election because I heard somewhere that he won the city of Pittsburgh.  Wait, nevermind, he probably didn't win Philadelphia county.  It would be easier for a Democrat to win every county than a Republican because of Philadelphia.
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Jake
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« Reply #9 on: June 05, 2006, 08:02:36 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.

All but Philadelphia has been done a few times, most recently by Ridge in 1998. He lost Philadelphia 60-35. Specter lost only two (Philly and Somerset) in 1998.
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Gabu
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« Reply #10 on: June 05, 2006, 08:06:54 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.

All but Philadelphia has been done a few times, most recently by Ridge in 1998. He lost Philadelphia 60-35. Specter lost only two (Philly and Somerset) in 1998.

Yes, I know all but Philly has been done, but that isn't "every county".

Republicans used to win there, but then the Democrats won some other counties.
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Alcon
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« Reply #11 on: June 05, 2006, 08:20:56 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.

All but Philadelphia has been done a few times, most recently by Ridge in 1998. He lost Philadelphia 60-35. Specter lost only two (Philly and Somerset) in 1998.

Why did Specter lose Somerset?
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: June 05, 2006, 08:26:14 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.

All but Philadelphia has been done a few times, most recently by Ridge in 1998. He lost Philadelphia 60-35. Specter lost only two (Philly and Somerset) in 1998.

Why did Specter lose Somerset?

I used to wonder that too.  The guy who ran against him was the State Senator from Somerset, and must have been very popular.

He was so unknown, I read somewhere that he had like 10% name recognition on election day.
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Gabu
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2006, 08:30:10 PM »

I used to wonder that too.  The guy who ran against him was the State Senator from Somerset, and must have been very popular.

He was so unknown, I read somewhere that he had like 10% name recognition on election day.

Do you think he could have won if he was better known?  A Democrat getting over 60% in Somerset County is no small feat.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2006, 08:46:27 PM »

I used to wonder that too.  The guy who ran against him was the State Senator from Somerset, and must have been very popular.

He was so unknown, I read somewhere that he had like 10% name recognition on election day.

Do you think he could have won if he was better known?  A Democrat getting over 60% in Somerset County is no small feat.

No way he could have won under normal circumstances.  Specter was uber popular back then in Pennsylvania.  He was never radically popular (like Hagel in Nebraska in 2002), but Specter could always pull a good 58% at least (2004 had Clymer in the race).
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2006, 08:54:56 PM »

haha.  just trying to get phil's blood pumping.

i, of course, say no.

in fact, i still predict santorum will win the race.  however, i also predicted bush would carry oregon and we see how that went.

Indeed.
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nclib
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« Reply #16 on: June 05, 2006, 08:58:09 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.

All but Philadelphia has been done a few times, most recently by Ridge in 1998. He lost Philadelphia 60-35. Specter lost only two (Philly and Somerset) in 1998.

How close did Casey Sr. get in 1990?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #17 on: June 05, 2006, 09:18:09 PM »

Has there ever been a time where someone won every county in Pennsylvania?  I can't find a single election where that happened.

All but Philadelphia has been done a few times, most recently by Ridge in 1998. He lost Philadelphia 60-35. Specter lost only two (Philly and Somerset) in 1998.

How close did Casey Sr. get in 1990?

i think he lost 5 counties.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2006, 04:20:10 AM »

I think one year Casey Sr. only missed Montgomery county.
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Gabu
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« Reply #19 on: June 06, 2006, 04:28:29 AM »

Interesting that there really doesn't seem to be any election whatsoever where one candidate won every county.  Might make Pennsylvania a candidate for "most polarized state".
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #20 on: June 06, 2006, 05:03:03 AM »

Interesting that there really doesn't seem to be any election whatsoever where one candidate won every county.  Might make Pennsylvania a candidate for "most polarized state".

I'm reasonably sure (70% or so) that the last time Pennsylvania was swept was by a Republican presidential candidate in the 1920s...Harding or Coolidge...but I'm not sure, and I can't check the county data to verify.
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Alcon
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« Reply #21 on: June 06, 2006, 05:54:36 AM »

Interesting that there really doesn't seem to be any election whatsoever where one candidate won every county.  Might make Pennsylvania a candidate for "most polarized state".

I'm reasonably sure (70% or so) that the last time Pennsylvania was swept was by a Republican presidential candidate in the 1920s...Harding or Coolidge...but I'm not sure, and I can't check the county data to verify.

Nope, Cox won Columbia, Greene, and Monroe.  The closest Pennsylvania has come to a GOP sweep since data began in 1892 was 1972, when McGovern only won Philadelphia County.

The closest for the Dems was 1964; the GOP won Lebanon, Snyder, Union, and Wayne.
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