ME - Colby College: Gideon +3 | Golden +25

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lisa Savage seems to active in the comments of the article this was posted in if anyone here has any questions.

They've polled second choices for the Senate race but not compiled results with RCV and not even compiled crosstabs for second choice by first choice preference. Thankfully, they wrote a bit on it in this article: https://www.colby.edu/news/2020/10/28/poll-shows-statistical-dead-heat-between-collins-and-gideon/

Colby College
October 21-25
Changes with September 17-23

Statewide
879 likely voters
MoE: 3.3%

First Round
Gideon +3% pre-rounding
Gideon 47% (+2)
Collins 43% (+2)
Savage 5% (n/c)
Linn 2% (-3)
Unsure 4% (-2)

Second Round (only Savage votes reallocated)
Their September 17-23 release had this to say on RCV:

However, their second choice was mostly scattered, with Gideon and Collins each netting about two percentage points.

6% remained undecided.

This release actually specifies the way Savage voters break (and includes voters who didn't bother to rank a second choice), so I'll extrapolate below.

Gideon +5
Gideon 49%
Collins 44%
Linn 3%
Undecided 4%

On other voters, it says this:

Using a ranked-choice process, the poll found that Lisa Savage voters selected Gideon as their second choice roughly 51 percent of the time, Max Linn 29 percent of the time, and Susan Collins 13 percent of the time. Linn voters, a much smaller cohort, cast their votes in a less consistent way.

“Given the closeness of the race, and the fact that minor-party candidates will probably net about seven percent of the overall vote, it’s likely the ranked-choice process will matter,” said Shea. “In our opinion, this may help Gideon more than Collins.”

ME-01
426 likely voters

Pingree 58%
Allen 31%
Unsure 11%

ME-02
453 likely voters

Golden 56% (n/c)
Crafts 31% (-2)
Unsure 13% (+2)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

And while often dismissed by the political junkies, I actually think the vote against Barrett could meaningfully bolster Collins independent image at the 11th hour.

LMAO!

That's not such an absurd idea. Earlier polls suggested her stance had a neutral effect on her favourability rating, but I suspect that would be more likely than not to amount to a boost among the voters she needs to win over and some extra disappointment amongst Republicans who are probably going to end up voting for her anyway, even if they only give her their second preference.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I'm a little bit worried about Sara Gideon. I hope that Biden will be able to drag her over the line or that this poll is off lol.

Gideon has never not been leading in a single public poll. She's +5 here after RCV. Collins is stuck at 43. Collins is getting no crossover support in any poll.

I just think that it's a little too close for comfort.

That is only because of the fairly serious, left-leaning third-party candidate and the presence of RCV. One of the takes I'm dreading after this election is that Collins would have won without it, when it's probable that Savage would simply have gotten much less support in the first round instead. If you look at results that do adjust for RCV, Gideon's in at least the high upper single digits in terms of margin and often over 50%.

Collins could absolutely win and MESEN is still competitive, but this late in the game, I'd say it's a likely D race.