My Finish Predictions - Iowa
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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« on: January 17, 2004, 08:13:08 AM »

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2004, 08:15:16 AM »

Is Lieberman's economic viewpoints really as leftwing was Gephardt's? Because I doubt it.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2004, 08:22:16 AM »

Is Lieberman's economic viewpoints really as leftwing was Gephardt's? Because I doubt it.

I'm looking at issues overall.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2004, 09:35:30 AM »

I will make a "fun" prediction:

1. Kerry
2. Dean
3. Edwards
4. Gephardt

This prediction is biased and optimistic, but it's what I hope will happen (if I could really choose I would knock Dean down to third place, but that's too unrealistic).

I think you have a good point, GWBFan, when candidates start dropping out Dean's rivals will  benefit. Hopefully, Clark, Gephardt and Lieberman will all be gone, formally or de facto, by Feb 3rd, and then Dean goes down.

Wishful thinking? ME? No way... Wink
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« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2004, 10:12:19 AM »

Dean is dying a slow death.  Edwards still has his "5 days to change America tour" coming up.  So here it is:

1. Edwards
2. Gephardt
3. Kerry
4. Dean

All are within 5 points of each other though.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2004, 10:16:46 AM »

Dean is dying a slow death.  Edwards still has his "5 days to change America tour" coming up.  So here it is:

1. Edwards
2. Gephardt
3. Kerry
4. Dean

All are within 5 points of each other though.

I didn't dare to be that optimistic. I hope you're right though...
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Huckleberry Finn
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« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2004, 11:23:12 AM »

1. Dean
2. Gephardt
3. Clark
4. Edwards
5. Kerry
6. Kucinich
7. Sharpton
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2004, 11:28:34 AM »

1. Dean
2. Gephardt
3. Clark
4. Edwards
5. Kerry
6. Kucinich
7. Sharpton
Clark is polling single digits there.
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TheWildCard
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« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2004, 11:53:13 AM »

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

I'd have to agree with your predictions and I think Gephardts voters will probably split up and not go to any one person. Unless Gephardt gives an endorsement.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2004, 12:10:59 PM »

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

I'd have to agree with your predictions and I think Gephardts voters will probably split up and not go to any one person. Unless Gephardt gives an endorsement.

I think they will go to other candidates than Dean, though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2004, 01:16:14 PM »

It's waaaaaaay too close to call.

All 4 can win and all 4 are within the MoE...
I think that Edwards might be able to pull it off as he is campaigning strongly in rural areas and as a result his numbers might be underestimated.
He also has the momentum; look at the IA polls a month ago and compare to now.

It's going to be a really close finish...
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2004, 01:27:33 PM »
« Edited: January 17, 2004, 01:28:40 PM by Beet »

According to a financial futures market, Intrade.com, where investors put their money where their predictions are, Howard Dean is given a 55% chance to win the Iowa caucus, to the great dismay of those who believe in (1) a campaign with a message, and (2) preventing a conservative landslide this year. The US is becoming an ultraconservtive state and the future debate may be between conservatives and fascists.

Gephardt and Kerry both at 25, Edwards at 8.
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2004, 01:58:56 PM »

According to a financial futures market, Intrade.com, where investors put their money where their predictions are, Howard Dean is given a 55% chance to win the Iowa caucus, to the great dismay of those who believe in (1) a campaign with a message, and (2) preventing a conservative landslide this year. The US is becoming an ultraconservtive state and the future debate may be between conservatives and fascists.

Gephardt and Kerry both at 25, Edwards at 8.

Don't be so negative about Dean's chances; you risk hurting your party.

If you're on the ballot, you can win.  Howard Dean can win againt Bush.  (It just isn't likely right now, given Bush's popularity and a tendency of American voters to reject liberal candidates.)  But if you're on the ballot, you can win.

If this was my party primary, I would rather vote for the frontrunner with the most chance of winning the nomination...even if he/she has little chance defeating the opposition.  Better to unite quickly than to create divisiveness and hurt your chances even more.

Larry Sabato has an interesting table on his site.  Go here:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_competition.htm

Here's how he puts it....

"In modern, television-age elections (1960-2000), vigorous intra-party competition with a multitude of candidates did not hurt a party's chances of capturing the White House in many cases. But divisive nomination politics that left open wounds or exposed a party's unbridgeable fault lines did strongly suggest a disastrous November result.

"...competition that leads to major, obvious party division has always produced November defeat in both parties since 1960."

So far, the Democratic primary has been highly competitive.  We'll see it get pretty divisive if Dean isn't the nominee (as he himself has suggested).
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Gustaf
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« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2004, 02:11:29 PM »

It's waaaaaaay too close to call.

All 4 can win and all 4 are within the MoE...
I think that Edwards might be able to pull it off as he is campaigning strongly in rural areas and as a result his numbers might be underestimated.
He also has the momentum; look at the IA polls a month ago and compare to now.

It's going to be a really close finish...

Good points, momentum can mean a lot.
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Beet
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2004, 02:20:36 PM »

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I would prefer not to be negative but Dean does do worse than the other candidates in the polls against Bush and a defeat for him would take many other representatives at the national and state level due to the coattail effect. Also his plan for repealing middle class tax cuts would be not only unpopular but I don't agree with them. So objectively speaking I think it would be bad if Dean won the nomination. And although the other candidates voted for war authorization, that doesn't mean they supported the war as it was carried out so I dont think it necessarily means great division. Dean himself has promised to endorse whomever wins if it was not him.
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John
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« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2004, 02:34:15 PM »

Here are my
Dean
Kerry
Gepthatd
Ewards
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2004, 02:37:35 PM »

Reasonable prediction John.

But Gepthatd need to win Iowa or he is done.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2004, 02:37:50 PM »

Like I said he has a strong following in rural areas (Zogby has him leading in Central Iowa) and this could mean that his numbers are understated.
But I don't know that.

Another point to consider:

The higher the turnout the better chance Edwards has of winning.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2004, 02:56:13 PM »

Well, high turnout probably hurts dean, but I don't see why it helps Edwards more than Gephardt or Kerry.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2004, 04:12:21 PM »

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

Gepardt supporters (some of them) could go to Edwards.  Especially in the south.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2004, 04:15:08 PM »

If gephardt doesn't endorse anybody, Edwards would take most of his supporters along for the ride to Boston.  But, if Gephardt does endorse someone, a sizeable anount of his supporters would go to the endorsee.

Is endorsee a word?  Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2004, 04:15:26 PM »

Here's a place to post your predictions on who comes in first, second, third, and fourth in the Iowa caucus.  Here are my predictions:

1. Howard Dean
2. John Kerry
3. Dick Gephardt
4. John Edwards

The question is, once Gephardt is forced to drop out after losing Iowa, to which candidate do his voters go?  I would say Lieberman would be the most logical, seeing that he is closest to Gephardt's political views.  But I think more likely it would be Kerry - who would greatly benefit from a Gephardt endorsement, especially in New Hampshire.

Your predictions?

Gepardt supporters (some of them) could go to Edwards.  Especially in the south.

That means Edwards is looking even better then, since it's very likely that Gephardt is forced out after IA.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #22 on: January 17, 2004, 04:18:22 PM »

Edwards is the man!  He could give bush a run for his money, no matter the circumstances.
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StevenNick
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« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2004, 04:20:17 PM »

Here are my predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think Dean will win with a significantly higher percent of the vote than he's polling right now.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #24 on: January 17, 2004, 04:22:26 PM »

Here are my predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think Dean will win with a significantly higher percent of the vote than he's polling right now.
Is that *think* or *hope*??
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