My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[John]

Here are my Predictions on election night
Dean: 32%
Kerry: 27%
Edwards: 20%
Gepthart: 14%
Gephart drops out three days after Iowa

[© tweed]

Spelling is getting better by the predictions aren't.  gephardt isn't losing by 18%.

[Carey]

there's a funny coincidence about most of the people who are saying Dean is gonna win big - about the colour of their avatars. That wouldn't be wishful thinking, would it, guys?

(No offense to actual Dean supporters btw)

[John]

Well you are Right
Gephart will get 18%

[Platypus]

Well, I don't think Dean will wn big, if he wins at all, and i'm an Iowan democrat

[Carey]

no, I was getting at the fact that every Republican is predicting a big win for him.

[John]

Well i think Dean win in a close Race

[Flying Dog]

I think Kerry and Edwards momentum will help them in Iowa, but it all comes down to organization. Gephardt and dean are the ones with it. Dean has the 5,000 young people going out there knocking on doors and and operating phones. Gephardt has the union members who are experienced with the caucases and has the base of seniors.
but when it all comes down to it, well here are my predictions

1-Gephardt
2-Dean
3-Kerry
4-Edwards
5-Clark
6-Lieberman
7-Kuchinich
8-Sharpton

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Latest Zogby numbers:

Kerry       25%
Dean       22%
Edwards  21%
Gephardt 18%

No matter what position Edwards finishes in Iowa will be a boost to his campaign.
I don't think that it's wise to rule out Gephardt, although things are looking bad for him.

[John]

You are Right
Gepthart is looking bad After toiught he is done

[M]

My final predictions are as follows:

Dean on top. Many of his people don't show up as well in polls, and I think that, though young, Deaniacs have the enthusiasm and drive to stat firm at the caucuses for hours if necessary. The good news for Dean is that Iowa caucuses are dominated by extremists and special interest groups. (heh heh...)

2nd and third are between our buddies Lurch and Jawn Edwahds. This should be the night's most exciting race.

Gep is last. Sorry, old chum, but whatever presence the unions have in Iowa isn't going to come out too strongly for you... they've soured on you, my friend. And the undecided incumbent rule (a favorite of some Leipian forumites) works against him here: he's the closest thing to an incumbent, because this is the closest thing to his "home turf".

Onward, Deaniacs! Charge forth like brave but angry lemmings!

[Beet]

Zogby update-

Kerry - 25
Dean - 22
Edwards - 21
Gephardt - 18
Undecided - 9

Pollster John Zogby: "Kerry continues to poll strong. Remember, he started with just 14% a week ago. Dean seems to have bottomed out and moved almost back to where he was. His support among the youngest voters and self-identified liberals appears to be solid. Gephardt rebounded with a good day of polling and he remains the favorite among the oldest voters. And Edwards had another good day.

Intrade futures market

Dean - 39
Kerry - 38
Gephardt - 10
Edwards - 8

I still think Dean will win decisively but that doesn't mean I hope he will.

[© tweed]

I think Kerry and Edwards momentum will help them in Iowa, but it all comes down to organization. Gephardt and dean are the ones with it. Dean has the 5,000 young people going out there knocking on doors and and operating phones. Gephardt has the union members who are experienced with the caucases and has the base of seniors.
but when it all comes down to it, well here are my predictions

1-Gephardt
2-Dean
3-Kerry
4-Edwards
5-Clark
6-Lieberman
7-Kuchinich
8-Sharpton

Clark and Lieberman are skipping Iowa.

[emergingDmajority1]

Kucinich has just come out in support for John Edwards. Not sure what kind of an impact this will have in Iowa, will whatever supporters kucinich has comply and stand in the Edwards corner? I figured most of them would flock to Dean.

[Gustaf]

I will point this out again. An important factor, NOT to be overlooked, is the 15% rule. If I remember it correctly, any candidate with less than 15% of attendants of a caucus meeting is removed. This will most likely happen in a lot of places, considering the fact that all candidates are around 20%. I believe most of these voters will not go for Dean. This will give Kerry/ Edwards a boost, and might be enough to beat Dean.

[Mort from NewYawk]

Kerry and Edwards will come out on top, with Dean and Gep trailing.

Gephardt will quit, perhaps throwing his support to Kerry (Gep the protectionist would never support Lieberman, the free-trader, as someone suggested).

In NH, Clark and Edwards will be on top.

Dean is done for, though his faithful will keep him in it until the end. Liberals are deserting him for Clark in droves, as Clark garners more celebrity endorsements. This is Clinton in the background again one-upping Gore (the influence of Hollywood is NOT to be underestimated). Gore will not encourage Dean to go third-party.

Clark-Edwards is the ticket.

Lieberman, the true DNC candidate, is ignored by the party "leaders", but his message of foreign policy toughness will again emerge in 2008 after the Dems fall on their face against GWB.

It's 9/11, stupid Democrats!

[opebo]

Kerry and Edwards will come out on top, with Dean and Gep trailing.

Gephardt will quit, perhaps throwing his support to Kerry (Gep the protectionist would never support Lieberman, the free-trader, as someone suggested).

In NH, Clark and Edwards will be on top.

Dean is done for, though his faithful will keep him in it until the end. Liberals are deserting him for Clark in droves, as Clark garners more celebrity endorsements. This is Clinton in the background again one-upping Gore (the influence of Hollywood is NOT to be underestimated). Gore will not encourage Dean to go third-party.

Clark-Edwards is the ticket.

Lieberman, the true DNC candidate, is ignored by the party "leaders", but his message of foreign policy toughness will again emerge in 2008 after the Dems fall on their face against GWB.

It's 9/11, stupid Democrats!

Confidently stated, Mort, and possibly correct.  Except won't people notice Clark is a loon at some point along the way?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Iowa will probably be decided by the 15% rule... it's going to go down to the wire.

[Inmate Trump]

I can't wait to see Gephardt drop out.

Hopefully tonight....

I'm guessing he'd throw his support to Kerry or Edwards - not that that's going to help them much outside of Iowa.

[© tweed]

Nice Clinton-Gore logo majority!  But here's my guy:

[Gustaf]

I can't wait to see Gephardt drop out.

Hopefully tonight....

I'm guessing he'd throw his support to Kerry or Edwards - not that that's going to help them much outside of Iowa.

It wil reduce the split in the "non-Dean vote" some. It would help them in MO on Feb. 3rd, wouldn't it?

[Inmate Trump]

It wil reduce the split in the "non-Dean vote" some. It would help them in MO on Feb. 3rd, wouldn't it?

It helps them a little bit, but not much.  Gephardt isn't really polling that great outside of Iowa....

It might help them in Missouri, I admit.  Might.  But that's it.

[Gustaf]

It wil reduce the split in the "non-Dean vote" some. It would help them in MO on Feb. 3rd, wouldn't it?

It helps them a little bit, but not much.  Gephardt isn't really polling that great outside of Iowa....

It might help them in Missouri, I admit.  Might.  But that's it.

It could have an effect in close races. Also, it will affect the positions of unions, which could have an effect.

[Inmate Trump]

It could have an effect in close races. Also, it will affect the positions of unions, which could have an effect.

True, I didn't think about the unions...

But if Gephardt doesn't actually endorse another candidate, I predict his union endorsements will go to Dean - not Kerry or Edwards.

[Gustaf]

It could have an effect in close races. Also, it will affect the positions of unions, which could have an effect.

True, I didn't think about the unions...

But if Gephardt doesn't actually endorse another candidate, I predict his union endorsements will go to Dean - not Kerry or Edwards.

Yes, I realized that as well...damn, just when I thought we were getting rid of Dean!