My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[Gustaf]

If gephardt doesn't endorse anybody, Edwards would take most of his supporters along for the ride to Boston.  But, if Gephardt does endorse someone, a sizeable anount of his supporters would go to the endorsee.

Is endorsee a word?  

"And suddenly, the messERS, become the messEES!"

[© tweed]

What I was trying to say was the candidate who received Gephardt's endorsement.  Endorsee sounded right.  But it wasn't.  

[Gustaf]

What I was trying to say was the candidate who received Gephardt's endorsement.  Endorsee sounded right.  But it wasn't.  

Yeah, I realized that. I was just reminded of an episode of Friends...

You're a Jennifer Aniston fan, you should know!

[StevenNick]

Here are my predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gephardt

I think Dean will win with a significantly higher percent of the vote than he's polling right now.

Is that *think* or *hope*??

It's both.

Most of the polling in Iowa is conducted from a pool of "likely caucus goers" which means people that have attended caucuses in the past.  Perhaps a full half of Dean's turnout on caucus day could be from young people who have never attended caucuses before and aren't being included in the polls.  I would imagine that Dean is a solid five or six percent ahead of where he's polling right now in real support.

But we'll see I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A SurveyUSA poll showed that Edwards had a lead in IA if "probable" voters were included.
I'm guessing it's to do with rural voters.

[© tweed]

If Edwards wins Iowa....
Finishes second in NH....
Becomes the anti-Dean....

Watch out W.

[Gustaf]

If Edwards wins Iowa....
Finishes second in NH....
Becomes the anti-Dean....

Watch out W.

If he does that he wins the nomination. The essential thing is to knock out the other centrist candidates (Gephardt, Clark, Lieberman, Kerry) in time, so he can get their votes. He most likely will, and then Dean is toast. But as long as there are this many candidates, Dean will have an advantage.

[StevenNick]

A SurveyUSA poll showed that Edwards had a lead in IA if "probable" voters were included.
I'm guessing it's to do with rural voters.

That would certainly shake things up a bit if Edwards won in Iowa.  Gephardt would be out.  Dean would be badly damaged.  Edwards could become the front runner.

[Gustaf]

A SurveyUSA poll showed that Edwards had a lead in IA if "probable" voters were included.
I'm guessing it's to do with rural voters.

That would certainly shake things up a bit if Edwards won in Iowa.  Gephardt would be out.  Dean would be badly damaged.  Edwards could become the front runner.

Yes, and it's possible. It would also make for a much more interesting race...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For Edwards to win Iowa he needs a high turnout.
Turnout could be crucial.

[Nation]

If Dean does manage to pull it off in Iowa, would the results of the rest of the primaries be primarily a Dean sweep, or would Edwards/Kerry still provide for an exciting race?

[StevenNick]

If Dean does manage to pull it off in Iowa, would the results of the rest of the primaries be primarily a Dean sweep, or would Edwards/Kerry still provide for an exciting race?

I think it depends on how much Dean wins by and who comes in second.  If, say, Edwards come in second by just a couple of points, the media will report it is as a weak showing for Dean and a strong showing for Edwards.  If Dean and Gephardt finish one and two and Kerry or Edwards is a few points below that, I don't see that either of them (Kerry/Edwards) will be able to immediately replace Howard Dean as the front runner.

But, frankly, I expect Howard to win both Iowa and New Hampshire and the nomination.  I think the surges of Edwards and Kerry in Iowa and Clark in New Hampshire are simply too little, too late to stop the Dean machine.

[Gustaf]

If Dean does manage to pull it off in Iowa, would the results of the rest of the primaries be primarily a Dean sweep, or would Edwards/Kerry still provide for an exciting race?

As SteveNick says, it depends on victory marginals. Btw, when you made 2 more posts you could register to vote in the fantasy election! We're 1 vote behind, so we need your vote for Nym90!

[Nation]

hey, I'll vote for who I want to . I've paid a little attention to the fantasy election when I come on here -- the debate itself is more interesting than actually voting, heh.

[© tweed]

hey, I'll vote for who I want to . I've paid a little attention to the fantasy election when I come on here -- the debate itself is more interesting than actually voting, heh.

Just register.  Give gustaf a pay raise and Nym a vote.

[Gustaf]

hey, I'll vote for who I want to . I've paid a little attention to the fantasy election when I come on here -- the debate itself is more interesting than actually voting, heh.

AAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH! What kind of talk is that? Do you want the Republicans to win? Who's side are you on? *calming down*

OK, I suppose you could vote for whoever you want...but you'll regret it when the GOP wins again!

[M]

If Edwards is the nominee, Pennsylvania will be an "interesting" race. If Dean is the nominee, Maryland will be an "interesting" race.

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Gep

If I were a dem in Iowa, I'd vote Edwards. As a GOPer, I can't wait for the Deaniacs to pull through.

[© tweed]

I stand by my prediction that Dean would win Pennsylvania.

[Nation]

Since MD will go Democratic in the general, it'd be fun to be a part of an election that will actually be close )

[Gustaf]

Since MD will go Democratic in the general, it'd be fun to be a part of an election that will actually be close )

Exactly! Come on and register!

[Nation]

I was referring to the MD primaries on march 3rd, but okay, I'll register, heh.

[Gustaf]

I was referring to the MD primaries on march 3rd, but okay, I'll register, heh.

You know, I almost suspected that...

The primary might well be over by then, so I wouldn't bet on that exciting election...

So, you're making a wise choice! You will get your share of my pay raise, lol...

[Platypus]

The way we do caucus here is absolutely INSANE.

We all go into the room, and the chair, after a while, gets us to stand in corners. "Gephardt supporters in that corner, Dean in that one, Kerry over there, and Edwards here. Undecided please head to the center of the room."

Then, every group is rated on its viability.


So, If Kerry gets 25%, Dean gets 25%, Gephardt gets 20% and Edwards gets 10%, with 20% undecided, Edwards is eliminated, and the people who voted for Edwards would be disbanded, and join the other groups or sit in the undecided area.

Now, Kerry has 30%, Dean has 27% and Gephardt has 22%.

Becuase Gephardt's group is still viable, because with the undecideds (21%) it could have 43%, therefore being ahead of Kerry.

Now, all the groups try to convince the undecideds to join them. After an hour or so, the tallies look like this:

Kerry 35%
Gephardt 33%
Dean 32%

Now, delegates are assigned. Just say there are seven.

All the candidates automatically get one automatically (caucus law) and then because they all have the right amount, they can all get 1 more delegate. The last delegate goes to Kerry because he has the most support, even if the other two were just behind him.

This sydtem is good and bad. I think it's good that it is preferential, but bad in that we will never know how many people actually voted for whoever comes fourth.

If 15% of the state votes for Edwards, that would be great for his campaign, but ity is basically un-tallyable, because no figures of who voted for whom is there. 15% would be an unviable group, so he wouldn't get many electoral votes at all.

If there were seven delegates for the whole state, then the fifteen percent would get him one.

Unfair for Edwards, good for Dean and Kerry (their competition doesn't get anything)

Anyway, I predict Kerry will win, then Gephardt, then Dean. Su[pport for Dean has just evaporated here over the last week or so, and a lot of undecideds are going to Gephardt and Kerry.

I'm voting Dean, preferencing Edwards, then Kerry.

[© tweed]

The way we do caucus here is absolutely INSANE.

We all go into the room, and the chair, after a while, gets us to stand in corners. "Gephardt supporters in that corner, Dean in that one, Kerry over there, and Edwards here. Undecided please head to the center of the room."

Then, every group is rated on its viability.


So, If Kerry gets 25%, Dean gets 25%, Gephardt gets 20% and Edwards gets 10%, with 20% undecided, Edwards is eliminated, and the people who voted for Edwards would be disbanded, and join the other groups or sit in the undecided area.

Now, Kerry has 30%, Dean has 27% and Gephardt has 22%.

Becuase Gephardt's group is still viable, because with the undecideds (21%) it could have 43%, therefore being ahead of Kerry.

Now, all the groups try to convince the undecideds to join them. After an hour or so, the tallies look like this:

Kerry 35%
Gephardt 33%
Dean 32%

Now, delegates are assigned. Just say there are seven.

All the candidates automatically get one automatically (caucus law) and then because they all have the right amount, they can all get 1 more delegate. The last delegate goes to Kerry because he has the most support, even if the other two were just behind him.

This sydtem is good and bad. I think it's good that it is preferential, but bad in that we will never know how many people actually voted for whoever comes fourth.

If 15% of the state votes for Edwards, that would be great for his campaign, but ity is basically un-tallyable, because no figures of who voted for whom is there. 15% would be an unviable group, so he wouldn't get many electoral votes at all.

If there were seven delegates for the whole state, then the fifteen percent would get him one.

Unfair for Edwards, good for Dean and Kerry (their competition doesn't get anything)

Anyway, I predict Kerry will win, then Gephardt, then Dean. Su[pport for Dean has just evaporated here over the last week or so, and a lot of undecideds are going to Gephardt and Kerry.

I'm voting Dean, preferencing Edwards, then Kerry.

Why can't you just vote?

[Gustaf]

The way we do caucus here is absolutely INSANE.

We all go into the room, and the chair, after a while, gets us to stand in corners. "Gephardt supporters in that corner, Dean in that one, Kerry over there, and Edwards here. Undecided please head to the center of the room."

Then, every group is rated on its viability.


So, If Kerry gets 25%, Dean gets 25%, Gephardt gets 20% and Edwards gets 10%, with 20% undecided, Edwards is eliminated, and the people who voted for Edwards would be disbanded, and join the other groups or sit in the undecided area.

Now, Kerry has 30%, Dean has 27% and Gephardt has 22%.

Becuase Gephardt's group is still viable, because with the undecideds (21%) it could have 43%, therefore being ahead of Kerry.

Now, all the groups try to convince the undecideds to join them. After an hour or so, the tallies look like this:

Kerry 35%
Gephardt 33%
Dean 32%

Now, delegates are assigned. Just say there are seven.

All the candidates automatically get one automatically (caucus law) and then because they all have the right amount, they can all get 1 more delegate. The last delegate goes to Kerry because he has the most support, even if the other two were just behind him.

This sydtem is good and bad. I think it's good that it is preferential, but bad in that we will never know how many people actually voted for whoever comes fourth.

If 15% of the state votes for Edwards, that would be great for his campaign, but ity is basically un-tallyable, because no figures of who voted for whom is there. 15% would be an unviable group, so he wouldn't get many electoral votes at all.

If there were seven delegates for the whole state, then the fifteen percent would get him one.

Unfair for Edwards, good for Dean and Kerry (their competition doesn't get anything)

Anyway, I predict Kerry will win, then Gephardt, then Dean. Su[pport for Dean has just evaporated here over the last week or so, and a lot of undecideds are going to Gephardt and Kerry.

I'm voting Dean, preferencing Edwards, then Kerry.

Intersting post. Keep us posted on the Iowa-mood, will you?

I'm afraid I hope you're right about Dean finishing third. Why not help out poor Edwards and vote for him directly, huh?