My Finish Predictions - Iowa

[Gustaf]

The Iowa Poll Numbers

Kerry-------------26%
Edwards---------23%
Dean-------------20%
Gephardt--------18%

Good quote, and really interesting. Seems to dispel the idea that Dean will win due to his supporters voting more. Gephardt is in huge trouble. I alter my prediction to Gephadt finishing 4th and Kerry winning. Not sure about Edwards and Dean though. If Edwards finishes 2nd it will be a major boost for him, if he fnnishes 3rd it will still be good, but then Kerry will get more attention for winning. 1 day left...

[© tweed]

Edwards?  Now there's a shocker.  He wouldn't even be able to win his own home state.

Probably true, but he would make it competitive, forcing Bush to spend some time in NC.  And he would swing Louisiana and Arkansas to the democrats, plus make Tennessee a tossup and Florida more competitive.  He is the strongest Dem in the field.

[© tweed]

The Iowa Poll Numbers

Kerry-------------26%
Edwards---------23%
Dean-------------20%
Gephardt--------18%

We're movin' on up!

Hugh, please make Edwards your first choice.  For the sake of the world, make edwards your first choice.

[NorthernDog]

My Guess for IA:

Dean 26%
Gep   23%
Kerry  22%
Edw    19%

Not every vote counts in caucus.  Dean will eeke out delegate count b/c Deanics are helping w/ GOTV.  Turned very cold here in MN so IA is probably the same for 1/19. Will it hurt turnout?

[© tweed]

Edwards is on the rise, he won't fall back to fourth place.  and dena is eating breakfast with Jimmy Carter today in Georgia?  I don't get that.

[7,052,770]

I'll say
Dean--26%
Edwards--25%
Kerry--23%
Gephardt--19%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Edwards is in strategically the best position as he doesn't need to win Iowa.
A strong 2nd, 3rd or even 4th (if it's very close) would be a huge boost to his campaign which should be enough to win SC.
It's similer for Kerry.

Gephardt needs to win (obvious, eh?), as does Dean.
If Dean fails to win Iowa whatever momentum his campaign had will evaporate.

[Gustaf]

Edwards is in strategically the best position as he doesn't need to win Iowa.
A strong 2nd, 3rd or even 4th (if it's very close) would be a huge boost to his campaign which should be enough to win SC.
It's similer for Kerry.

Gephardt needs to win (obvious, eh?), as does Dean.
If Dean fails to win Iowa whatever momentum his campaign had will evaporate.

That's exactly what I've been saying. It's clear now that Iowa will be a win for Edwards and Kerry and a blow to Dean and Gephardt, the only question is how bad will it be, since if Dean squeaks out a fair result it will hirt him less, etc. Gephardt is dead though.

[TheWildCard]

Okay here are mine with percantages.

Dean-25%
Kerry-23%
Gephardt-20%
Edwards-19%

[Gustaf]

I am not gonna make any predictions of percentages, it's way too close for that. I do think that Kerry will win, and that Dean and Edwards will be in the running for secon place. Gephardt wil finish 4th and then drop out.

[Nation]

Just throwing my predictions into the ring. I have a solid track record of being wrong though, hah.


1) Dean 24%
2) Kerry 23%
3) Edwards 21%
4) Gephardt 19%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All four could win and it's still waaaaaaaaaaay too close to call...
The caucus system means that polls are not as usefull as in NH...
However it makes for a very interesting race!

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

I am hoping that Edwards wins IOWA. He is charismatic like Clinton. He is more optimistic that his plan can really change America.
I still support Clark for President. However, ignoring IOWA could prove to be a mistake as the pundits are indicating.
My realsitic predictions are: 1. Kerry
                                            2. Edwards
                                            3.Dean
                                            4. Gephardt

[StevenNick]

Okay, I'm sure I'll be eating crow tomorrow night, but here are my predictions:

Dean 31%
Kerry 24%
Edwards 23%
Gephardt 18%

In any event, Dean will finish stronger than expected and Gephardt is in serious trouble.  I could see Edwards finishing second and Kerry third, but I think Dean will finish first and Gephardt will finish fourth.

[Gustaf]

Okay, I'm sure I'll be eating crow tomorrow night, but here are my predictions:

Dean 31%
Kerry 24%
Edwards 23%
Gephardt 18%

In any event, Dean will finish stronger than expected and Gephardt is in serious trouble.  I could see Edwards finishing second and Kerry third, but I think Dean will finish first and Gephardt will finish fourth.

Hm, it seems like everyone is pretty certain that Gephardt will go down, which is worse for him than any of the others, since he has the highest expectations on him.

Btw, wont second choices matter a lot? In a lot of places at least one of the four front runners are bound to fall below 15%. Where will those voters go? I think that they will not primarily go to Dean, and that it might hurt him in a number of places.

[TheWildCard]

Something I'd like to point out if you break it down to raw stats 55% of people who win the Iowa caucus win the nomination, 11% of second place finishers win the nom. and a whopping 33% of 3rd place finishers win their parties support at the end.

So those top 3 spots are a big deal.

[12th Doctor]

Okay, I'm sure I'll be eating crow tomorrow night, but here are my predictions:

Dean 31%
Kerry 24%
Edwards 23%
Gephardt 18%

In any event, Dean will finish stronger than expected and Gephardt is in serious trouble.  I could see Edwards finishing second and Kerry third, but I think Dean will finish first and Gephardt will finish fourth.

Hm, it seems like everyone is pretty certain that Gephardt will go down, which is worse for him than any of the others, since he has the highest expectations on him.

Btw, wont second choices matter a lot? In a lot of places at least one of the four front runners are bound to fall below 15%. Where will those voters go? I think that they will not primarily go to Dean, and that it might hurt him in a number of places.

I think that Gepardt will go down and that will benefit Edwards, but not enough to beat Dean.

[Gustaf]

Something I'd like to point out if you break it down to raw stats 55% of people who win the Iowa caucus win the nomination, 11% of second place finishers win the nom. and a whopping 33% of 3rd place finishers win their parties support at the end.

So those top 3 spots are a big deal.

What are you basing this on? Dems only, or Reps as well? How far back are you going, etc. So, anyone finishing 4th place has never, ever won the nomination? Interesting...

[TheWildCard]

Something I'd like to point out if you break it down to raw stats 55% of people who win the Iowa caucus win the nomination, 11% of second place finishers win the nom. and a whopping 33% of 3rd place finishers win their parties support at the end.

So those top 3 spots are a big deal.

What are you basing this on? Dems only, or Reps as well? How far back are you going, etc. So, anyone finishing 4th place has never, ever won the nomination? Interesting...

It includes republicans and I'm unsure how far back it goes.

[Gustaf]

Something I'd like to point out if you break it down to raw stats 55% of people who win the Iowa caucus win the nomination, 11% of second place finishers win the nom. and a whopping 33% of 3rd place finishers win their parties support at the end.

So those top 3 spots are a big deal.

What are you basing this on? Dems only, or Reps as well? How far back are you going, etc. So, anyone finishing 4th place has never, ever won the nomination? Interesting...

It includes republicans and I'm unsure how far back it goes.

Where does it come from? And would it be possible to break it down to Dems only, since the dynamics are different for the parties?  

[Platypus]

If Edwards survives the first round, he'll pidk up ALOT of the leftovers (who would primarily be Gephardters)

He is seen as "not a bad guy"

A bit like a conservative Kennedy. Not that many people really liked him that much before the election, but alot of people thought he was an OK guy.

[Beet]

Here are my predictions:

Dean         31%
Kerry         24%
Gephardt  23%
Edwards   20%


Although the Des Moines Register poll has Dean in third, the Zogby poll paints a different picture. It has Dean surging by 4 points from 19 to 23 percent in just two days. In contrast, Kerry (at 24) and Edwards's (at 18) surges have been blunted, and the Gephardt (at 19) campaign does not seem to be making any headway-- he has good organization and will be able to rely on union turnout, and it'll be enough to beat expectations based on polls but not enough to beat Dean. Remember the number of dedicated voters where therefore be tremendously important.

But with at least 10 percent of all voters remain undecided, it is today's suicide bombing in Baghdad, the worst since Saddam Hussein's capture, the first in the U.S.-controlled "green line", that comes just one day before the crucial Iowa caucuses, that gives Dean the last minute boost he needs.

I always say that I have bad feelings about the candidate that Karl Rove once cheered for ("Go Dean! Yeah, he's the one we want!"), and this attack may help Bush by helping Dean. Islamic attacks have a history of helping hardline candidates. In 1980, Iranian revolutionaries held the hostages just long enough to spite Carter. In 1995-96, a series of devastating bus bombings just before the 1996 Israeli election brought down the Shamir government. In 2000, the breakdown of Camp David talks and the outbreak of the Palestinian intifada may have been just enough to cost Al Gore the election in Florida. The Sept. 11 terror attacks and the October 2002 sniper shootings certainly helped Republicans in that year's election. It looks like the cycle is repeating itself again.

Finally, Dean remains at the top of the Intrade futures market, with investors giving him 49.00 versus 22.00 for Kerry, 15.00 for Gephardt, and just 7.00 for Edwards.

[Platypus]

The union movement in Iowa isn't exactly significant

In my part of the state (Davenport, in the far east) It's a Dean/Kerry/Edwards affair; there are basically no Gephardt-ers campaigning here compared to Deanites (every second scorner )

Dean seems to be putting alot into our town, and I think he'll win it, but Kerry and Edwards will both be close. Gephardt might get 10% or so, and be an unviable group; his support will go to Edwards, i think, which will make it a Dean/Edwards race that Dean will win.

[emergingDmajority1]

1. Edwards (bit of a reach here, but I really like this guy. I'm choosing with my heart and not my head here

2. Kerry

3. Gephardt

4. Dean (hopefully this will be the shocking death blow)


is it likely? naaaah, but maybe if I wish hard enough it will happen.

[© tweed]

1. Edwards (bit of a reach here, but I really like this guy. I'm choosing with my heart and not my head here

2. Kerry

3. Gephardt

4. Dean (hopefully this will be the shocking death blow)


is it likely? naaaah, but maybe if I wish hard enough it will happen.

Gephardt and Dean's attacks on each other have helped Edwards and Kerry, which is why those two are surging.  And your prediction shows that, so it is not unrealistic.