Impact of Katrina on Redistricting, Louisiana Politics
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  Impact of Katrina on Redistricting, Louisiana Politics
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Author Topic: Impact of Katrina on Redistricting, Louisiana Politics  (Read 5469 times)
Q
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« on: April 11, 2006, 11:24:58 PM »

I've been involved in research conducting flow analyses for materials and population as a result of Hurricane Katrina.  We have calculated that the change in population of the state of Louisiana between July 2005 and the present is a loss of approximately 345,500 people.  If the population does not change between now and 2010 (although our forecasts of course call for an increase (magnitude to be determined) in LA's population between now and then), is this enough to cause Louisiana to lose one of its seven congressional districts in the upcoming redistricting?  Also, is there any state that gained enough displaced residents to gain another congressional district, if redistricting were held today?

Feel free to discuss in this thread this or any other issue related to the effect of Katrina on Louisiana politics.
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MODU
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« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2006, 07:29:44 AM »



I don't think it would be unlikely that they would lose an EV.  Texas did take in many of their evacuees, but not enough to make a major difference in their population.  With that in mind, Texas might still gain a few EVs due to their ever increasing population with many companies opening up offices down there. 
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Q
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« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2006, 12:32:10 PM »

I don't think it would be unlikely that they would lose an EV.  Texas did take in many of their evacuees, but not enough to make a major difference in their population.

I know a congressional district is generally worth in the range of 600k to 700k people, but a difference of, say, 10k people could potentially make a differerence during reapportionment in 2010, due to how reapportionment is conducted (based on a ranking of states' populations in various rounds of apportionment).

So it's probably most likely that LA will lose a CD (if it experiences no more population growth in the next 4 years) but that TX will not gain one as a result, I suppose?
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WMS
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« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2006, 12:41:38 PM »

Paging muon2 and jimrtex, paging muon2 and jimrtex... Wink
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Brandon H
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« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2006, 01:33:34 PM »

Well the next census won't be until 2010, so I think a lot of the population will return to La. by then, assuming we don't get another major storm. But other states along the gulf coast could also suffer a similar fate if a major hurricane were to come.

Now since Congressional Disitricts are suppose to have roughly the same population, the redrawing of the districts will be very interesting. While most people will come back to La., many will not come back to the same area.
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« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2006, 03:03:19 PM »

Aren't Katrina evacuees still officially living in Louisiana on paper?
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Q
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« Reply #6 on: April 12, 2006, 08:41:54 PM »

Aren't Katrina evacuees still officially living in Louisiana on paper?

I think that the Census looks at where people declare themselves to be living at the present, regardless of where they are registered to vote, so I think most of the evacuees will be, on paper, living in their new locations.

Btw, right now we're projecting (very rough preliminary estimates) of the state's population in 2010 being about 175,000 people fewer than the pre-Katrina high.
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Alcon
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« Reply #7 on: April 12, 2006, 08:54:59 PM »

Aren't Katrina evacuees still officially living in Louisiana on paper?

I think that the Census looks at where people declare themselves to be living at the present, regardless of where they are registered to vote, so I think most of the evacuees will be, on paper, living in their new locations.

Btw, right now we're projecting (very rough preliminary estimates) of the state's population in 2010 being about 175,000 people fewer than the pre-Katrina high.

This is fascinating stuff.  I do not know how much you can tell us, but how will New Orleans' population change?  Any interesting statistics you could give us would be great.  I don't mean to intrude, but this is depressing, but very interesting.

That is nearly a 10 percent loss statewide, so I can only imagine.
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Q
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« Reply #8 on: April 12, 2006, 11:29:29 PM »

This is fascinating stuff.  I do not know how much you can tell us, but how will New Orleans' population change?  Any interesting statistics you could give us would be great.  I don't mean to intrude, but this is depressing, but very interesting.

I will likely be able supply you many numbers, actually.  My work is, at the end of the line, sponsored by a non-profit, so they might allow us to release our findings as we see fit.

The population numbers, I should warn, are merely incidental to the project, though.  Our focus is actually to calculate the amount of raw materials that will be used to rebuild 5 parishes surrounding New Orleans.

The N.O. population numbers you ask about will be forecast for three scenarios that have been proposed by various leaders and agencies and have the potential to be enacted: 1) City rebuilt as before storm.  2) Most of city restored, but certain low-lying areas are returned to their natural state (including, for example, the complete leveling of the Lower Ninth and New Orleans East and those portions of Gentilly and Lakeview lying 2 or more feet below sea level).  3) The most likely scenario -- most of city returns to 90% capacity (100% in the 4 surrounding parishes), with vulnerable areas (as defined in Scenario 2) returning to 50% capacity.

If you were wondering.  Wink
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: April 13, 2006, 01:19:40 AM »

Paging muon2 and jimrtex, paging muon2 and jimrtex... Wink

Yeah, yeah, I had to go downstate Monday and then spent two days catching up with other work. Here's my analysis in the immediate aftermath of Katrina:

The US is over halfway to the next decennial Census and subsequent reapportionment. Each year, near the end of December, the Census puts out current estimates of state population. This can be used for projections to forecast the apportionment in 2010 as was done at this thread.

Based on those numbers, LA was only gaining 0.2% per year and could be expected to lose one seat in the 2010 reapportionment. Katrina will certainly have an effect on the population there, and there is likely to be a lingering effect through the next census. I've made some estimates of the impact of relocation of displaced persons, and lack of growth while reconstruction is at work over the next few years.

A simple model is to assume that some number of people who have been relocated out of state, choose to stay in their new locations. There are over 1 M people in the NOLA area, and over half live in the flooded parishes of Orleans, St. Bernard, and Plaquemines. My model assumes that some fraction choose to relcate out-of-state that are not replaced by new immigrants from other states. Also, the population that matters are those present on April 1, 2010.

If the net outflow is less than 250K, then LA will probably stay on its current projection of a loss of one seat in 2010. However, if the net outflow reaches 300K, then LA stands to lose a second seat. If no other state gains excessively the projections give that seat to CA, increasing its gain to +2.

However, the majority of displaced people have taken temporary residence in TX. If that holds up over the next five years, TX could find itself with an additional seat. My estimates are that about 150K people from LA need to end up in TX for that state to gain 4 rather than the currently projected 3 seats.


This was my analysis after the most recent set on Census estimates:
The Census Bureau released its estimates of the populations in each state for July 1, 2005. A press release and excel file contain the official info.

As in previous years I have used this data to project the House apportionment for 2010. My methodology and projections follow.

The Census provides an apportionment population and base residential population for April 1, 2000. The apportionment population includes residents out of state such as overseas military personnel. An annual rate is calculated from the base population and the new estimate (July 1, 2005) using a period of 5.25 years. The annual rate is applied to the base population for a period of 10 years, and the difference between the 2000 apportionment population and base population is added. This results in a projected apportionment population for each state.

The House seats are apportioned on the priority method used for past decennial reapportionments. Each state is assigned one seat. An average number of residents per seat is calulated each state with the current seat assignment and for an assignment of one additional seat. The priority is calculated for each state by taking the geometric mean of those two averages. The state with the highest priority is given the next seat, and its next priority is calculated. The process continues until 435 seats are assigned.

The 2010 projections would result in these changes:

AZ +2
CA +1
FL +3
GA +1
IL -1
IA -1
LA -1
MA -1
MI -1
MN -1
MO -1
NV +1
NY -2
OH -2
PA -1
TX +3
UT +1

The following states were the last to get seats: 431 AL-7, 432 PA-18, 433 CA-54, 434 AZ-10, 435 FL-28.

These states would be next in line to get seats: 436 MN-8, 437 MI-15, 438 NY-36, 439 IL-19, 440 LA-7.

Compared to the 2004 estimates this is one additional seat for AZ and FL, and one less for MI and MN.

Note that this does not include the affects of relocations due to Katrina which occurred after the date of the estimates. To test the effects I moved 300K from LA in 2010 and assigned 150K to TX, 50K to GA and 20K to each of AR, CA, NC, SC, and TN. That amount of movement had no effect on the reapportionment, though MO would be at priority 440 instead of LA.

The key is that LA is expected to lose a seat without any Katrina effects. Katrina made it a virtual certainty. There is still an outside possibility of a second seat loss from Katrina, but that seems unlikely with current estimates.
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WMS
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« Reply #10 on: April 13, 2006, 01:29:58 PM »

Paging muon2 and jimrtex, paging muon2 and jimrtex... Wink

Yeah, yeah, I had to go downstate Monday and then spent two days catching up with other work. Here's my analysis in the immediate aftermath of Katrina:

[tons snipped]

The key is that LA is expected to lose a seat without any Katrina effects. Katrina made it a virtual certainty. There is still an outside possibility of a second seat loss from Katrina, but that seems unlikely with current estimates.

Oh, I wasn't expecting you to return right away and answer Wink

Nice summary Smiley
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« Reply #11 on: April 13, 2006, 10:21:08 PM »

Thank you very much, Muon.  That was the exact information I was wondering about.
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muon2
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« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2006, 01:43:48 PM »

Thank you very much, Muon.  That was the exact information I was wondering about.

You're welcome. If you have any data about where the 345K displaced residents are located, I can project the effect on the 2010 reapportionment.
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Brandon H
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« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2006, 04:46:23 PM »

Thank you very much, Muon.  That was the exact information I was wondering about.

You're welcome. If you have any data about where the 345K displaced residents are located, I can project the effect on the 2010 reapportionment.


Texas and Atlanta have a large chunk of the population. Nagin was actually airing campaign commercials on Houston radio and La. Sec. of State Al Ader went to Houston and Atlanta to help explain to evacuees about the absentee voting.
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muon2
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« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2006, 11:54:36 PM »

Thank you very much, Muon.  That was the exact information I was wondering about.

You're welcome. If you have any data about where the 345K displaced residents are located, I can project the effect on the 2010 reapportionment.


Texas and Atlanta have a large chunk of the population. Nagin was actually airing campaign commercials on Houston radio and La. Sec. of State Al Ader went to Houston and Atlanta to help explain to evacuees about the absentee voting.

I was looking for specific breakdowns. I know there were some late last year, and I wondered if there were new estimates of the evacuees state by state.
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Brandon H
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« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2006, 11:46:08 PM »

Thank you very much, Muon.  That was the exact information I was wondering about.

You're welcome. If you have any data about where the 345K displaced residents are located, I can project the effect on the 2010 reapportionment.


Texas and Atlanta have a large chunk of the population. Nagin was actually airing campaign commercials on Houston radio and La. Sec. of State Al Ader went to Houston and Atlanta to help explain to evacuees about the absentee voting.

I was looking for specific breakdowns. I know there were some late last year, and I wondered if there were new estimates of the evacuees state by state.

I don't know any specifics. There is a chance though that we will get a number of voters for location during the mayorial election next weekend (which would only involve New Orleans evacuees, but it's something). I'll do some research on it.
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« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2006, 02:53:35 AM »

If you have any data about where the 345K displaced residents are located, I can project the effect on the 2010 reapportionment.

Sorry, I don't.  We're looking only at LA and nothing more broad than that.
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muon2
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2006, 06:28:13 AM »
« Edited: June 19, 2006, 09:09:20 PM by Dave Leip »

The Census Bureau released some new estimates last week for the Hurricane-affected states and counties. One set of estimates shows a 345K loss for LA and the other set shows a 380K loss for LA. Orleans Parish is estimated to drop 280K (64%), and St Bernard Parish drops 61K (95% !!). Baton Rouge picks up 17K of that population.

This is still consistent with on one seat loss after 2010. Roughly, the area served by CDs 1,2 and 3 would only have enough population for 2 CDs.
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« Reply #18 on: July 28, 2006, 12:54:27 AM »

The Census Bureau released some new estimates last week for the Hurricane-affected states and counties. One set of estimates shows a 345K loss for LA and the other set shows a 380K loss for LA. Orleans Parish is estimated to drop 280K (64%), and St Bernard Parish drops 61K (95% !!). Baton Rouge picks up 17K of that population.
Texas is claiming around 40,000 additional school children related to Katrina, so let's maybe multiply by 6 to to get around 250,000 extra persons assuming a fairly normal population distribution.  Texas was reasonably close to a 33rd representative in 2000, so perhaps this would be enough to push the state closer to 36 than 35 in 2010.
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