Shock State

[English]

Which state is going to cause a shock in November?

A Bush win in RI and a Kerry win in Idaho!!

[Josh/Devilman88]

A bush win in NY

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

"Going to," or "would cause the greatest?"  If I had to pick two "shockers," one for Kerry, and one for Bush:

If Bush wins: New Jersey

If Kerry wins: Tennessee (I no longer consider Virginia to be a "shocker," even though the media would play it up as one)

Another "shocker" would be Bush sweeping the Dukakis Five (WV, WI, IA, MN, WA) - something that is a distinct possiblity.

[Rococo4]

Another "shocker" would be Bush sweeping the Dukakis Five (WV, WI, IA, MN, WA) - something that is a distinct possiblity.

I have a question.......why do you call these the "Dukakis Five" when he won a few other states as well?  Just curious.  Thanks

[Keystone Phil]

Another "shocker" would be Bush sweeping the Dukakis Five (WV, WI, IA, MN, WA) - something that is a distinct possiblity.

I have a question.......why do you call these the "Dukakis Five" when he won a few other states as well?  Just curious.  Thanks

Exactly what I was wondering...

[King]

Do you think Bush will win the Mondale One?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Another "shocker" would be Bush sweeping the Dukakis Five (WV, WI, IA, MN, WA) - something that is a distinct possiblity.

I have a question.......why do you call these the "Dukakis Five" when he won a few other states as well?  Just curious.  Thanks

The media has long referred to them as that, and I'm not exactly sure why.  I think because they are five states that Dukakis picked up from Reagan, and since then have always gone Democrat (except for WV in 2000).  Of course, NY, MA, and CT also fall into that category, but maybe those are considered heavily Democrat-leaning states anyway.  IA, OR, and WA (and to some extent, WI) were predominantly Republican before 1988.  IA and OR went Republican every election from 1968-1984, and since Dukakis have always gone Democrat.

(From Googling around a bit, I get the impression that "Dukakis Five" was coined by the Bush 2000 Campaign to refer to states that were solidly Dukakis/Clinton, but still highly vulnerable, and worth targeting.  But I distinctly remember hearing that term long before Bush began his campaign in 1998.)

[Giant Saguaro]

See, I'm a bit of a pessimist so I'm a bit easier to surprise. A Bush win in PA and MI would shock the hell out of me; add to that OR and WA.

On the other hand, a Kerry win in KY or TN would similarly surprise me.

[Lunar]

Most media pundits unfortunately refer to TN as a swing state already (due to the 2000 results and Clinton winning it twice), so it wouldn't be a "surprise."  

I would say North Carolina, which is a distinct possiblity should Kerry pull 5% ahead, could be a good shock state.  I suppose New Jersey could be a surprise, but I still  see it as 10% in Kerry's favor.

[nini2287]

I think for Bush it could be Delaware (since NJ has already been exposed)...not a lot of polling nor campaigning going on there, but it may be closer than some people think.

For Kerry, I'd say South Carolina.  Although the state isn't in play, Edwards did win the primary there and some polls have shown a closer race than expected.