Battle Ground States Predctions

[John]

Florida
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 47%
PA
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 46%
more Later

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Florida
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 47%
PA
Kerry: 50%
Bush: 46%
more Later

Based on current polling...
FL Kerry by <1%
PA Kerry by 6%
WV Kerry by 2%
OH Kerry by 2%
WI Kerry by <1%
MN Kerry by 4%
IA Kerry by 2%
MO Kerry by 1%
NV Kerry by 2%
NH Kerry by 2%
ME Kerry by 4%
OR Kerry by 6%
WA Kerry by 8%
AR Bush by 4%
VA Bush by 6%
NC Bush by 5%

Yes, thinks really look this bleak for Bush right now, but I think he'll take back OH, MO, FL, NV, WV, and NH (and possibly WI and IA) after the RNC, and we'll have oursleves a race again.

PA is a lost cause for Bush.

[AuH2O]

Don't be too hasty. Not much is a lost cause this far out, save Massachussetts and the like.

[jacob_101]

I say:

FL
Bush 49%
Kerry 49%

PA
Bush 48%
Kerry 51%

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Don't be too hasty. Not much is a lost cause this far out, save Massachussetts and the like.

I think there's too much bad vibe in the Philly area to overcome.  Had he kept the steel tarrifs in place (which, of course, would have been totally impossible) he might have carried enough of the west to have a shot.   But I just don't see it happening.

Any gains that Bush makes at this point are going to be in middle America (Ohio, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Michigan if he really builds up a lead), the South (Florida), and the West (Oregon, Washington, Nevada, New Mexico).  The best-case scenario for Bush:



And that's with Bush carrying 55% of the popular vote.

[WalterMitty]

florida:
bush > kerry

ohio:
bush > kerry

pa:

bush < kerry

wv:
bush > kerry

oregon:
bush < kerry

iowa:
bush < kerry.

minnesota:
bush = kerry

wisconsin:
bush = kerry

[Lunar]

How is it Bush = Kerry in Minnesota?

I disagree about West Virginia, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

[WalterMitty]

i think minnesota and wisconsin may be the two biggest tossups.

by election day those two states will be essentially tied.  kerry may be (slightly) ahead in those states at the moment.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

How is it Bush = Kerry in Minnesota?

I disagree about West Virginia, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

In a tied national race, all three go to Kerry.  But Florida, Missouri, and Ohio go to Bush, yielding a 269-269 tie.

Interesting how that works out.

[AuH2O]

Trust me, if Bush wins 55% of the vote, he will win PA and even probably Vermont, Illinois, and possibly California.

[Bogart]

[John]

Here is another Poll
Ohio
Bush: 49%
Kerry: 45%
I think Ohio will go to Bush

[classical liberal]

I think that, given a PV tie, there are 10 real battlegrounds.  4 are slight Bush; 4 are slight Kerry.  The other two will decide the race.  If they are split then the EC is tied, if both go to a candidate then that candidate wins.



Bush-264
Kerry-264
Tossup-10

[Lunar]

I would add New Hampshire, Oregon, West Virginia, and Minnesota as lean Kerry, all should be between 1 and 3 percent in his favor.

And then Nevada for lean Bush.

[khirkhib]

I think that there are 10 real battlegrounds.  4 are slight Bush; 4 are slight Kerry.  The other two will decide the race.  If they are split then the EC is tied, if both go to a candidate then taht candidate wins.



Bush-264
Kerry-264
Tossup-10

I wouldn't change a thing.  That looks just about right.  Florida could surprise you though.  
I know people on this board have spoken about the military vote in Florida but what about the immigrant vote.

New voters in Florida
The Miami Herald reports that in Florida "almost 54,000 immigrants applied for citizenship between October and May,
a 63 percent increase over the previous eight-month period." The principle reason cited for immigrants applying is that
they want to be able to vote in the upcoming election. That's amazing. The amount of energy in this race is reaching
people who aren't yet citizens, and they want to become Americans to do it.

This isn't just a trend in Florida. The Herald reports "that Federal statistics show that almost half a million immigrants
have sought citizenship between October and May, 32 percent more than in the same period last fiscal year."
Which party is likely to benefit from this? Well, the article quotes James Gimpel, a professor at the University of
Maryland who tracks new citizen voter participation. He says that Democrats are the overwhelming beneficiaries
of votes from newly-minted citizens.

One of the things that polls in the 2004 race are unable to measure is the number of people who are likely to
vote, but didn't vote in the 2000 race. Part of this is because the presidential race pollsters ask their questions
to likely voters (i.e. people who voted in previous elections). The pollsters sample group is only 50% of the eligible
voters in this country. It's harder to guess how many people are going to vote who haven't before. But there is
a such a thing as zeitgeist, and if this story doesn't indicate that there will be turnout on a scale not seen for a
 long time, what does?

[khirkhib]

http://www.local10.com/news/3598475/detail.html

Florida Woman's dying wish "Bush Defeated"

[classical liberal]

I would add New Hampshire, Oregon, West Virginia, and Minnesota as lean Kerry, all should be between 1 and 3 percent in his favor.

And then Nevada for lean Bush.

While MN, NH, and OR will be close, they aren't "battlegrounds" per se.  Look at the revised map: I changed the color scheme so that it's easier to read.

[classical liberal]

I think that, given a PV tie, there are 10 real battlegrounds.  4 are slight Bush; 4 are slight Kerry.  The other two will decide the race.  If they are split then the EC is tied, if both go to a candidate then taht candidate wins.



Bush-264
Kerry-264
Tossup-10

Updated Map:



Bush-264
Kerry-264
Tossup-10

[mddem2004]

I think that, given a PV tie, there are 10 real battlegrounds.  4 are slight Bush; 4 are slight Kerry.  The other two will decide the race.  If they are split then the EC is tied, if both go to a candidate then that candidate wins.



Bush-264
Kerry-264
Tossup-10

Extremly plausable....good point.

My gut is telling me:
W. VA - To Bush by 3%
NH -  To Kerry by 5%
PA  -  To Kerry by 5%
MI -  To Kerry by 6%
NM - To Kerry by 3%
WA - To Kerry by 7%
MN - To Kerry by 5%

Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Oregon and Nevada in my view are the hardest.

I'm going with Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada by 2% to Kerry
Oregon to Kerry by 4%
Ohio to Bush by 2%
Florida to Kerry by 2%
And the sleeper is Missouri to Kerry by 2%