Which Party Will benefit from demographic change?
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  Which Party Will benefit from demographic change?
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Question: Which Party will benefit from domographic change?
#1
Democrats
 
#2
Republicans
 
#3
Other
 
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Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: Which Party Will benefit from demographic change?  (Read 5952 times)
Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« on: May 22, 2006, 12:31:55 PM »

Red states are growing faster but growth in minority populations, especially latinos, could tern some states blue. Also there is a rapid growth in independents. Which states will become "bluer", and which will become "reder"?
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2006, 12:34:21 PM »

Also there was that study by heritage predicting 100 million new immigrants in the next twenty years. In that case we may get a Hugo Chavez style socialist regime.
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2006, 12:36:13 PM »

Heritage Report: http://www.heritage.org/Research/Immigration/wm1076.cfm
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Max
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2006, 12:39:37 PM »

Democrats will benefit, if they come up to my expections and become more populist in the next decades.





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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2006, 03:09:50 PM »

Whats with the democrats becoming the dominant party in the future?
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2006, 03:39:42 PM »

Right now, Democrats, but that could change if Republicans continue to gain among Latinos.
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adam
Captain Vlad
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2006, 01:57:56 PM »

The GOP's wishy washy split on immigration will appeal to the growing Latino population if they deal it out right. However on the flipside, this is hurting their base. I think the utter disgust they are creating amongst their white conservative base will hurt them as much as the demographic change will help them.
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2006, 03:09:57 PM »

I know there is a growing number of unafilliated voters, beyound racial or ethnic lines. Would The Reform Party, be affacted by demographica change, assuming most of the members are white?
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2006, 04:57:28 PM »

I know there is a growing number of unafilliated voters, beyound racial or ethnic lines. Would The Reform Party, be affacted by demographica change, assuming most of the members are white?

The Reform party doesn't really exist anymore. . .
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Colin
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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2006, 07:23:27 PM »

I know there is a growing number of unafilliated voters, beyound racial or ethnic lines. Would The Reform Party, be affacted by demographica change, assuming most of the members are white?

The Reform party doesn't really exist anymore. . .

Yeah it basically ceased to exist in 2000.
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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2006, 07:54:09 PM »

I know there is a growing number of unafilliated voters, beyound racial or ethnic lines. Would The Reform Party, be affacted by demographica change, assuming most of the members are white?

The Reform party doesn't really exist anymore. . .

Yeah it basically ceased to exist in 2000.

I'd put it at after the 1998 elections.
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MaC
Milk_and_cereal
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2006, 03:54:54 PM »

Map of how I see things:

Gray-not sure how things look, not enough data
Light Red-going more democratic (whether it currently is or not)
Light Blue-going more republican (whether it currently is or not)
Red-looks solid, no foreseeable change
Blue-looks solid, no foreseeable change

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opebo
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2006, 04:23:15 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2006, 04:25:32 PM by opebo »

Looks more like this to me - and this is overestimating Republican movement in the upper midwest just to be generous:


Light pink = moving Dem slowly
Red =  moving Dem rapidly
Light blue = moving Rep slowly
Gray = not moving much or at least not enough to change the balance anytime soon
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MaC
Milk_and_cereal
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2006, 07:43:04 PM »

Looks more like this to me - and this is overestimating Republican movement in the upper midwest just to be generous:


Light pink = moving Dem slowly
Red =  moving Dem rapidly
Light blue = moving Rep slowly
Gray = not moving much or at least not enough to change the balance anytime soon


not a bad map.  How do you see Nevada and New Hampshire moving faster than the others?
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2006, 03:19:03 PM »

Why is Democrat Red and GOP Blue, rather than the other way around? I think the growing latino population will turn Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevado more democratic, and mostly white states like Maine, Wisconsin, and Minesota, will become more republican or independent.
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Nym90
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2006, 04:51:04 PM »

The Democrats. I think that the public is growing weary of the conservative trend of the last 25 years and the pendulum is going to begin to swing in the opposite direction again.
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MaC
Milk_and_cereal
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2006, 05:31:11 PM »

Why is Democrat Red and GOP Blue, rather than the other way around?

Back when Dave Leip was first making maps he used these colors.  They very well could be orange and green (as he states on the home page).  However, the media-being that they distort things have twisted around the meaning of what a 'red' or 'blue' state is.
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Nym90
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« Reply #17 on: May 28, 2006, 05:48:25 PM »

Why is Democrat Red and GOP Blue, rather than the other way around?

Back when Dave Leip was first making maps he used these colors.  They very well could be orange and green (as he states on the home page).  However, the media-being that they distort things have twisted around the meaning of what a 'red' or 'blue' state is.

Also, these have traditionally been the colors associated with the parties; the media's flipping of the colors is a recent phenomenon.

I prefer Dave's color scheme.
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Reignman
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« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2006, 06:41:25 AM »

Looks more like this to me - and this is overestimating Republican movement in the upper midwest just to be generous:


Light pink = moving Dem slowly
Red =  moving Dem rapidly
Light blue = moving Rep slowly
Gray = not moving much or at least not enough to change the balance anytime soon


I don't think Ohio is really moving left in the long-run.
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2006, 07:15:37 PM »

Can someone explain why those states on the map are changing? I would gues the SW may become more Dem as it becomes more latino, but white dems in the upper mid west may become republicans, as the democratic party becomes dominated by latinos.
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Governor PiT
Robert Stark
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« Reply #20 on: June 07, 2006, 12:49:02 PM »

How will California change politically? Immigration may turn CA more liberal, but the fastest growing parts of the state are conservative exurbia, and the slowest growth is in the coastal liberal areas like the bay area.
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