Rasmussen: Napolitano (D) with Lead over Republican Challengers in Arizona

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

ARIZONA GOVERNOR
NAPOLITANO 60%
GOLDWATER 38%

ARIZONA SENATE
KYL 52%
PEDERSON 45%

[Adlai Stevenson]

But 2006 is a Democratic leaning year. If Kerry got 44% in 2004, why would 4-5% of his supporters vote for a conservative like Kyl?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Well if you say so.  I think in states like North Dakota incumbents are genuinely popular regardless of party.  Arizona isn't so much like that, I never got the sense they had a really strong attachment to Kyl.  I still can't understand why no Democrats ran against him 2000 though.  I feel that if he hadn't won 79% that year, he wouldn't be quite so high up now.