Did I miss something? Mason-Dixon in WV.

[millwx]

Did I hit a speed bump in my brain tonight?

I've seen nothing on this forum regarding a new WV poll by rather reliable Mason-Dixon.  Yes, it was done for a private client.  So, it's not (yet) on their web site (I got it off of PollingReport) and this may also bring into question its reliability somewhat.  Still, it's Mason-Dixon... largely touted as one of the better firms.

What's more, based on its results, I feel like I missed some political development.  In *most* polls Bush has led there... yes, in some it's been within the margin of error.  But, it has been pretty consistent with the Bush lead.  I had little question that Bush was in the driver's seat there.  The Mason-Dixon results...

Kerry 47%, Bush 41%, MOE 4% (12% undecided).  A small but definite lead for Kerry.  I'd sure like to know who the private client is, to see if this is biased somehow.  Nonetheless, I'm surprised by these results.

[millwx]

Untill we see the "guts" it is hard to make a hard call on what the poll actually said.

Finally, even the very best can't get around statistical errors.  Assuming a 600 sample size, 1 poll in 20 will report a lead that is wrong by 8%.

Agreed.

And, yes, the sample was about 600 (625 likely voters, to be exact).

I'm not sure when or if we'll see the "guts", since I don't know how this came out.  But I hope we do see them.  I don't want to overanalyze or overemphasize one measly poll, but I certainly found its results intriguing.