another 1904 storyline

[WalterMitty]

lets get another story going on the 1904 election.  but let's start with the premise that mckinley doesnt get shot and serves out his full term.

[WalterMitty]

anyone?

im really curious if roosevelt would have become president without mckinley's assassination.

[johnpressman]

TR was the ultimate political outsider.  But for McKinley's assasination, I just   could not see him ever being President. 

A follow-up question could be: Missing Theodore Roosevelt; how would history be forever changed?

[polpro]

Had McKinley not been assasinated, I doubt very much that an outsider like Theodore Roosevelt would have become President. Indeed, in the entire history of the Republic, the only Vice Presidents to be nominated for President (or elected President while Vice President) were John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Richard Nixon, George H.W. Bush, and Al Gore. Richard Nixon and Walter Mondale were the only two former Vice Presidents to be nominated after leaving office as Vice President.

Note the huge gaping whole beween 1836 (Van Buren) and 1960 (Nixon). To paraphrase Vice President John Nance Garner (1933-1941), the Vice Presidency wasn't thought to be worth "a bucket of warm spit."

[WalterMitty]

Had McKinley not been assasinated, I doubt very much that an outsider like Theodore Roosevelt would have become President. Indeed, in the entire history of the Republic, the only Vice Presidents to be nominated for President (or elected President while Vice President) were John Adams, Thomas Jefferson, Martin Van Buren, Richard Nixon, George H.W. Bush, and Al Gore. Richard Nixon and Walter Mondale were the only two former Vice Presidents to be nominated after leaving office as Vice President.

Note the huge gaping whole beween 1836 (Van Buren) and 1960 (Nixon). To paraphrase Vice President John Nance Garner (1933-1941), the Vice Presidency wasn't thought to be worth "a bucket of warm spit."

who would have been the 1904 republican nominee then?

mark hanna died early in the year.

[Lincoln Republican]

It is interesting speculation as to whether TR would have ever become President had McKinley not been assassinated.

To begin with, William McKinley's first Vice President was Garret Hobart of New Jersey.  Hobart died of heart failure on November 21, 1899, one year before the 1900 Presidential election.  It is reasonable to assume that Hobart, had he been in good health, would have been nominated as Vice President again in 1900, and would therefore have become President upon the death of McKinley on September 14, 1901.  In this event, Roosevelt would not have become Vice President, and therefore, would not have become President, at least not in 1901.  

Theodore Roosevelt had been serving as Governor of New York since 1899, and was rooting out corruption and machine politics.   The Republican boss in New York, Thomas Platt, evidently forced Roosevelt on McKinley as the Vice Presidential runnng mate in 1900, in order to regain control of the state for the machine politicians.  Therefore, TR became President in 1901.  The question here is, would TR have been chosen by McKinley as his VP running mate in 1900 on his own?  If not, if he had chosen someone else, obviously, that individual would have become the new President in 1901.  In that case, TR would not have become President, and may never have become President.  In order for TR to run for President in 1904, he would likely have to run against the Republican President for the nomination, not likely to happen.

Back to the question, would TR have become President had McKinley not been assassinated.

The key to this question is, would TR want to run for President in 1904, after having served four years as VP, or would he return to private life?  TR found the Vice Presidency unfulfilling, and in fact did consider returning to law school after leaving office as VP.

TR no doubt had ambition, and in this respect, he would have found being President a challenging and rewarding experience.  In this case, I believe he would run in 1904, would have won the nomination, and would have won the election.  TR may be one of the few VP's who could pull this off, moving directly from being VP to becoming President, through the sheer force of his personality and his charisma.  He may even had run for re-election in 1908, if he had found his first term to be rewarding, and if he believed he had unfinished business to attend to.

The other side of this speculation, is that TR may by this time have found public life too confining, and would have returned to private life, to pursue his world travels and adventures.

Overall, I believe TR would have found the prospect of becoming President worth his while, and would have pursued it in 1904, after four years as VP.  

    

[WalterMitty]

i dont think roosevelt would have been elected president had mckinley lived.

1. VPs werent held in high esteem in those days.  it was really an insignificant office.  i think the republican convention would rather have nominated a governor or senator instead of a vp.

2.  roosevelt was seen as eccentric....a loose cannon...a cowboy.

[Lincoln Republican]

Walter, that would be true of an ordinary, garden variety VP.  TR, however, was anything but ordinary. 

His well known name, political experience, forceful personality, charisma, and exceptional speaking abilities would have put him at the forefront in the 1904 Republican nomination and election, I believe. 

[WalterMitty]

Walter, that would be true of an ordinary, garden variety VP.  TR, however, was anything but ordinary. 

His well known name, political experience, forceful personality, charisma, and exceptional speaking abilities would have put him at the forefront in the 1904 Republican nomination and election, I believe. 

winfield, im wondering how a fellow from you home state, nelson aldrich, may have figured into a 1904 scenario?

[Lincoln Republican]

You know, Walter, when I was thinking of this 1904 scenario, Nelson Aldrich honestly never came to mind.

But now that you mention it, with McKinley not being assassinated, and there being an open Republican nomination in 1904, this very powerful Senator, Aldrich, could possibly have been a significant player.  Perhaps he could have become the only Rhode Islander to ever become President.  Although, the fact he came from the samll state of Rhode Island may have played against him as a Presidential contender.

It seems to me, Aldrich was enjoying his very powerful position of influence in the United States Senate, and perhaps had no interest in giving this up to make an uncertain run for the Presidency.  He was up for re-election to the Senate in 1904.

Nelson W. Aldrich was, as you know, a most interesting politician.

President, Providence City Council
Speaker, Rhode Island House of Representatives
United States House of Representatives 1879-81
United States Senate 1881-1911

A very powerful and influential Senator, responsible for most of the financial legislation of the early 20th century.

From Wiki, "Because of his impact on national politics, he was referred to as "general manager of the United States." 

Aldrich's daughter, Abbey Aldrich, of course, married tycoon John D. Rockefeller, Jr., likely America's wealthiest man at the time, and Nelson Aldrich is, of course, the maternal grandfather of his namesake, Nelson Aldrich Rockefeller, who, as we all know, became a very powerful and influential politician himself, New York Governor, and sought the Presidency himself three times. 

[WalterMitty]

i think aldrich would definitely beat roosevelt at the republican convention.  roosevelt was too much of a maverick.

another question: if roosevelt was denied the republican nomination in 04, would he have run as an indy? 

[Lincoln Republican]

Well, let's see actual events, and compare them to possible events.

1904, we know that even though he was President, TR faced a possible strong challenge from a very powerful Senator, Mark Hanna of Ohio.  Hanna was expected to challenge TR for the Republican nomination in 1904, however, Hanna died in February of that year, and TR won the nomination with no further opposition.

1908, we know that TR pushed through the nomination of his Secretary of War, William Howard Taft, who went on to be elected President.

1912, we know that TR and Taft had had a falling out, and that Taft defeated TR in a bitter nomination battle, and that TR ran for President as a Progressive, in the contest that saw the election of Woodrow Wilson as President.

We know as well that TR was planning on making another run for President in 1920, but that he died in 1919.   

I don't know that Aldrich would have been able to defeat a sitting President for the 1904 nomination.  In 1912, even TR was unable to win the nomination against President Taft.

With your scenario, in which Aldrich does defeat TR for the nomination in 1904, given TR's history, it seems likely he may very well have made an independent run for President.

Then the question becomes, with Republican Aldrich and independent Roosevelt running, does this open the door for New York Judge, Bourbon Democrat, Alton B. Parker to win the Presidency? 

[johnpressman]

No, TR would NEVER have gotten the support of the Republican Party machinery, neccessary to win the nomination for President in those pre-primary days.

Winfield, I'm curious, where did you read that he was planning on running for President in 1920??

[WalterMitty]

Well, let's see actual events, and compare them to possible events.

1904, we know that even though he was President, TR faced a possible strong challenge from a very powerful Senator, Mark Hanna of Ohio.  Hanna was expected to challenge TR for the Republican nomination in 1904, however, Hanna died in February of that year, and TR won the nomination with no further opposition.

1908, we know that TR pushed through the nomination of his Secretary of War, William Howard Taft, who went on to be elected President.

1912, we know that TR and Taft had had a falling out, and that Taft defeated TR in a bitter nomination battle, and that TR ran for President as a Progressive, in the contest that saw the election of Woodrow Wilson as President.

We know as well that TR was planning on making another run for President in 1920, but that he died in 1919.   

I don't know that Aldrich would have been able to defeat a sitting President for the 1904 nomination.  In 1912, even TR was unable to win the nomination against President Taft.

With your scenario, in which Aldrich does defeat TR for the nomination in 1904, given TR's history, it seems likely he may very well have made an independent run for President.

Then the question becomes, with Republican Aldrich and independent Roosevelt running, does this open the door for New York Judge, Bourbon Democrat, Alton B. Parker to win the Presidency? 

in 1912, roosevelt won more delegates than taft, but was cheated at the convention by the republican-powers-that-be.

had he endorsed taft, he certainly would have been the frontrunner for the 1916 nomination and would have easily beaten wilson.

[Lincoln Republican]

No, TR would NEVER have gotten the support of the Republican Party machinery, neccessary to win the nomination for President in those pre-primary days.

Winfield, I'm curious, where did you read that he was planning on running for President in 1920??

John

There are several references and this is considered to be a historical fact.  Two references made to 1920 are in the Dictionary of American Biography, and in the Encyclopedia Americana.  TR had hoped to lead a united Republican Party in 1920, but death intervened in 1919.

TR as well, aspired to the 1916 Republican nomination, and was disappointed when the party chose Supreme Court Judge Charles Evans Hughes.  The Progressives had, in fact, wanted TR to be their nominee in 1916, but he withdrew as the candidate, and supported Hughes in the election.

There is a book coming out in the spring of 2007, "1920 The Year of Six Presidents" by David Pietrusza.

Theodore Roosevelt, "only the hand of God can keep him from the White House."

Woodrow Wilson, the incumbent President, he clings to hopes of a third term.

Warren G. Harding, the candidate elected President.

Calvin Coolidge, elected Vice President, later to become President.

Herbert Hoover, in 1920, wants to be President, and later becomes President.

Franklin D. Roosevelt, "if the Republicans can't nominate a dead Roosevelt, the Democrats will nominate a live one - Franklin - for Vice President."  He goes on later to become President.

[johnpressman]

Winfield:

Sorry for the delay.  Interesting title "1920: Year of Six Presidents".  I did read of TR's desire for the 1916 Republican Nomination and his refusal of the Progressives' nomination.  I also read that he did not actively campaign, just hoped for a deadlock.  I have always thought that TR became President by accident and, already an outspoken maverick, was never forgiven by the GOP for 1912.

As for Wilson seeking a third term??? I doubt it.  Besides the uproar a third term try would bring in 1920, he was a very sick man at the end of his Presidency.   I think he was pretty unpopular toward the end of his 2nd term as well.

Do you get the name Winfield from The Grapes Of Wrath?

[Lincoln Republican]

True, Wilson was not in good health by the end of his second term.  Whether it was a sense of duty on his part wanting to complete work yet undone, or pure vanity, I don't know. 

He may have wanted a third term, in his mind, but it was clearly something that was not at all possible. 

If by some act of stupidity the Democrats nominated Wilson in 1920, Wilson would no doubt have gone down to an overhwhelming and humiliating defeat, the same kind of defeat Harry Truman would have suffered if he had run in 1952.

To answer your question, the answer would be no.  I was not aware there was someone with my name in The Grapes of Wrath. 

[M]

There's also the "Loos Bandage" TL, where

http://www.geocities.com/wmlives/ALB1.html

*SPOILERS*








Hearst becomes President, occupies Mexico and ends democracy, leading to a Second Civil War against TR. Total ASB.

[Michael Z]

TR was the ultimate political outsider.  But for McKinley's assasination, I just   could not see him ever being President. 

That's very true. Roosevelt is a classic example of an accidental President turning out to be a great President.