Okay, I'm new here, so could someone please tell me why an incumbent Republican governor in a GOP state is having so much trouble? Is Bush bringing Perry down, or is it Perry himself?
If not for Bush, Perry would not have been elected Lt.Governor in 1998.
You'd expect a Republican to win about 60:40. Right now he is ahead about 40:20 over Bell. There is no reason to assume that it is Perry vs. Strayhorn-Bell-Friedman. It is quite unlikely that all the votes will coalesce on a single candidate. With Bell doing so poor, some voters are going think, "why the hell not" and vote for Friedman, who is running against politics. They're voters who will either not vote or vote for Friedman. And there are voters who are constitutionally incapable for voting for anyone but a Democrat. They're not going to vote for Friedman.
Some of the Strayhorn support and Bell support may switch. Bell is running hard against Strayhorn right now. But if Strayhorn is seen as dropping, some of her GOP vote will go to Perry; her Democrat vote will go to Bell, and her anti-politician will go to Friedman.
And we don't really know if the poll is reliable or not. It doesn't make sense that Perry would drop 20 points in Harris County in a month, and almost none elsewhere; or the number of graduate school voters would increase by 5% in a month.
