What will happen in NH?

[Gustaf]

What if Dean loses resoundingly in Iowa? Will he win NH no matter what?

[12th Doctor]

I don't think so.  But a bad showing in Iowa could mean a less than specatcular showing in New Hampshire, which could lead to him being upset on "Mini- Super-Tuesday".

[Gustaf]

I don't think so.  But a bad showing in Iowa could mean a less than specatcular showing in New Hampshire, which could lead to him being upset on "Mini- Super-Tuesday".

I think Dean *could* lose in New Hampshire. But even if he finishes first, but only wins narrowly, it will be seen as a sign of weakness. Most likely, whoever does well in Iowa will get a boost in NH, and thus get the attention from that primary as well. But this is really getting exciting...

[Platypus]

I was reading Slate the other day, and they had a rather offensive quote from NH.

"Iowans pick corn. We pick presidents"

Well, firstly, we have more evs then you, NH. Plus we are also a swing state.

Also, the results in NH will be skewed, b/c Clark, Lieberman and Sharpton have been campaigning ferociously there.

Nationally their supprot is fairly lw, but in NH it's reasonably high (Clark is around 15% IIRC)

I think Dean will win if he comes 3rd or better in Iowa. If he comes fourth, it will be close.

[© tweed]

The candidate who wins Iowa has a great shot at New Hampshire.  Clark is trailing Dean ins ingle digits there now...so he can win it.

[Gustaf]

I was reading Slate the other day, and they had a rather offensive quote from NH.

"Iowans pick corn. We pick presidents"

Well, firstly, we have more evs then you, NH. Plus we are also a swing state.

Also, the results in NH will be skewed, b/c Clark, Lieberman and Sharpton have been campaigning ferociously there.

Nationally their supprot is fairly lw, but in NH it's reasonably high (Clark is around 15% IIRC)

I think Dean will win if he comes 3rd or better in Iowa. If he comes fourth, it will be close.

Also, Iowa is actually better at picking "right", I think. New Hampshire tend t go for outsiders, who don't win anyway.

[© tweed]

McCain won NH by 19 points, Tsongas won NH in 1992, so I guess that it is safe to say NH goes for the outsiders, hence dean's lead.

[Gustaf]

McCain won NH by 19 points, Tsongas won NH in 1992, so I guess that it is safe to say NH goes for the outsiders, hence dean's lead.

That's what I was saying.

[© tweed]

I was just backing up what you said with some cold info.

[Gustaf]

I was just backing up what you said with some cold info.

Yeah, and I appreciated it, I just formulated my post a little badly...

[© tweed]

I was just backing up what you said with some cold info.

Yeah, and I appreciated it, I just formulated my post a little badly...

Yeah, it sounded like you were snapping at me

[Platypus]

Now I know why you have such high post counts

[© tweed]

Now I know why you have such high post counts

Yes, we have been doing this for a while, we used to build pyramids with DarthKosh.  

[John]

Dean Will Win NH by a Slim Margin
Dean: 40%
Clark: 32%
Kerry: 20%
others go into small Numbers

[YRABNNRM]

Does anyone know Edwards current stance in NH?

[Platypus]

AFAIK, he has been focusing on Iowa.

NH doesn't really matter, the Democrats will win the Northeast anyway (although maybe not NH and ME)

Iowa does. The midwest is going to be the battle ground for election '04.

(I'm not being arrogant, just truthful. Iowa is more important to do well in)

[agcatter]

I think a lot depends on Iowa and what kind of momentum is generated by the winner who emerges from that state.

I'll go out on the limb here.  Kerry the last few days has risen to within one point of Clark for second.  Dean 28, Clark 20, Kerry 19.  It appears to me that voters there are really starting to give Kerry a second look.  He could win there.

[Platypus]

Well, I think Dean has won it, but if he does badly here then who knows what could happen.

If Dean does well, then its very unlikely to go any other way

[Inmate Trump]

First, let me just remind everyone that no candidate has not gotten a fourth place or better showing in Iowa and gone on to win the nomination.  So historically, Clark doesn't have a chance at the nom.

That said, I do think it's possible that Dean loses in N.H.  But I don't think it's very likely.

All the top candidates in Iowa will get boosts in N.H.  Clark will be knocked out by Kerry and Edwards - who will both still lose the state b/c the "centrist" vote is going to be split between four candidates (would've been five, but Gephardt will drop tonight/tomorrow after he loses Iowa).  Dean, being the only major liberal candidate, won't have his vote split.  He'll win.

My predictions:

1.) Dean
2.) Kerry
3.) Clark
4.) Edwards

I've done some thinking lately.  If I *had* to choose a Democrat to be president in 2005 (meaning GWB wasn't on the ballot - giving me no choice but a Dem), I would pick Edwards.  Everyone says he's Clinton-like, but I see him more Kennedy-like.  To be Clinton-like, Edwards would have to be an admitted sex-addict and criminal.  I really do think he's the only Democrat able to win this November.

[MAS117]

I think that Dean can win but he will fight again like in Iowa. It isnt locked up anymore.

[Gustaf]

I think that Dean can win but he will fight again like in Iowa. It isnt locked up anymore.

I agree. Why don't you register to vote in the fantasy election of the forum, btw? We need you to beat the Republicans!

[© tweed]

Go get him to vote for us!  
MAS, we need you.  Listen to Gustaf.

[Inmate Trump]

MAS, you don't really want to register to vote in the fantasy election.

::waves hand, using Jedi mind trick::

You will not register to vote in the fantasy election.

[© tweed]

MAS, you don't really want to register to vote in the fantasy election.

::waves hand, using Jedi mind trick::

You will not register to vote in the fantasy election.

He signed off already, it's no use.

[Inmate Trump]

::does Stewie from "Family Guy" impression::

Damn you all!