POLLING SECTION UPDATED - Arkansas

[The Vorlon]

Here are the polls

Click here for Robo-Rasmussen Showing Bush +5

Click here for a Zogby Internet Adventure showing Bush +4

Click here for an older Robo-Rasmussen showing a tie

Click here for an Arkansas University poll showing Bush up 8

Click here for a Survey USA Robo Poll showing Bush +2

These polls an average result of Bush up maybe 4% or so. - None of these polls is anything I would hang my hat on.  The Zogby Internet poll is unproven at very best, (it's internet and it's Zogby) there are 3 robo-polls and one from a University...

Based on the national trends and how the various demographic groups have shifted nationaly this would be my GUESS..

Slightly below middle class, working class people are mildly breaking for Kerry nationally, while the industrial base of Arkansas is actually picked up a bit, the social issues hellp Bush a tad, while Kerry has picked up a bit from the mild urbanization of Arkansas around Little Rock.

The Survey USA internals more or less support this, (and SUSA actually does a pretty decent job generally speaking) so I'll go with the Survey USA being pretty close.  Lets say Bush +3 (I'll update my own map soon!)