Associated Press/Ipsos: Mfume (D) leads Steele (R) and leads Cardin.

[Mike in Maryland]

Here's my $.02 (also posted at myelectionanalysis.com):

I think either Democrat will be favored, though Cardin more strongly. Once the general election gets rolling, I think Steele will be shown to be less moderate and independent than he wants us to think he is.

The Democratic primary is shaping up as competitive, but I wonder if Mfume is really as strong as the WP poll makes him seem. He has a devoted base among blacks and some liberals, but the poll shows that he may have tapped that out with most African-Americans already in his corner. Cardin lags in name recognition, particularly in the Washington area (where I live, and where I have yet to get any mailings or automated phone calls from any Senate candidate.) Since Cardin has a much larger campaign treasury, he may well be in a better position to pick up the large undecided vote (about 1/3 of the total) and move clearly ahead as he becomes better known.

In the general election, the racial issues are somewhat hard to predict. Steele has said he needs a quarter of the black vote to win, but the poll showed him getting that against Cardin and losing by 10 points. At that rate he’d need about 40% or more of blacks, and I find that somewhat improbable. An Mfume-Steele matchup would be closer largely because many moderate whites who lean to Cardin would instead defect to Steele if Mfume is nominated, though I think Mfume’s total would be at least a couple of points better than what the “likely voter” polls say. Traditionally, black voters have turned out at a substantially lower rate than whites and so I think are underrepresented in likely voter surveys. However, enthusiasm for Mfume would likely change that.


I find the racial split here somewhat disconcerting, though the division is not the candidates' faults; both Cardin and Mfume have been carefully and sometimes eloquently campaigning in colorblind terms.  (And calling a black man a race baiter while praising the Confederacy and denouncing Abraham Lincoln is really rich.  LOL)

[Mike in Maryland]

(And calling a black man a race baiter while praising the Confederacy and denouncing Abraham Lincoln is really rich.  LOL)

I think you supporting Mfume and O'Malley is far far more rich. Though which one is a bigger joke? Mfume or O'Malley? Hard to decide really. MFume could be a joke because he was the head of the racist NAACP or you could consider O'Malley a bigger joke because he lies about lowering the crime rate in Baltimore which is complete fiction.

I didn't say I favored Mfume; I'm actually leaning to Cardin, but not firmly decided.  I will support either in November.  As to O'Malley, I'm also undecided there; I could conceivably vote for Ehrlich.

[Mike in Maryland]

Also, Hotline said that either way, Cardin or Mfume will have a tough race against Steele.  Hotline says that Cardin will lose some black support to Steele and Mfume would lose conserv catholics to Steele. And both will be very close to Steele.  Mfume is currently tied to Steele. Cardin may be 12 points ahead, but Hotline said that it isn't going to be that lopsided. They said it come down to swing voters in MD on election day, and they predicted before long, Cardin would only lead by 1.  The NJ, PA, MD, and VA media markets are linked together, and everytime you are a Dem or Republican, if you have a competetive race it will come down to the undecided votes thats why Allen has a race on his hands.

Sounds like Hotline is reading Republican talking points.  I wonder if they realize just how Democratic Maryland is, all other things being equal, or just how unpopular the Bush administration and the national GOP are here.

For a state that's so close to Washington, this analysis sounds like it was written by partisans who can't find it on a map.

[Mike in Maryland]

Sounds like Hotline is reading Republican talking points.  I wonder if they realize just how Democratic Maryland is, all other things being equal, or just how unpopular the Bush administration and the national GOP are here.

For a state that's so close to Washington, this analysis sounds like it was written by partisans who can't find it on a map.

Maryland is only "really Democratic" in three places. The entire rest of the state is pretty heavily republican.

Those three places (Montgomery Co., Prince George's Co., and Baltimore City) are about 40% of the total population.  The only heavily Republican areas are Western MD, most of the Eastern Shore, and some exurbs, which only make up about 25% of the total.  That leaves suburban Baltimore counties like Baltimore Co. (separate from the city), Howard, and Anne Arundel to determine the balance, and these are swing-voting areas winnable for either party.  

But since the heavily Democratic areas are larger than the heavily GOP areas, the Republicans have to sweep the table and run up huge margins in the swing areas to win.  Gov. Ehrlich did this in 2002, winning, for instance, 61% of the vote in Balt. Co. and 65% in Anne Arundel, for a narrow 52-48 win statewide.  But two years later President Bush lost Balt. Co. narrowly (about 52-48) and won AA by 56-44, a split showing, but lost statewide 56-43.

[Mike in Maryland]

Yea Mike,  Annapolis is very Republican.  It is mostly Democratic presidentially, but in State races Republicans are more competetive. And all hotline was saying was that MD, VA, NJ, and PA, are not safe seats, the minority party in those 4 states can be competetive.

I think that Republican competitiveness in statewide races is harder to replicate in federal-level races where an unpopular GOP president is more of an issue (I've said this in the prediction threads.)  Given that, if Ehrlich loses reelection (a 50-50 chance, I think) I find it hard to see Steele doing better absent some special mistake by the Democratic candidate.

The general election could well be competitive, but I don't know where Hotline got that "Cardin by only 1" business from, since the polls show him leading pretty healthily even with a sizable number of black defections. 

[Mike in Maryland]

Because he can lose African American votes to Steele. And some liberals might now come out.

Perhaps, but as I noted, he can lose at least a quarter of them and still lead decisively.  I doubt he'd lose much more once the general election gets engaged and Steele is shown to be a likely vote for most of the Bush agenda.  Same thing for liberals; I don't think they'll sit on their hands and not vote, especially if the race is close.  Whatever issues they have with Cardin pale next to the much less appealing alternative of giving the GOP an extra vote.  For his lead to melt away almost totally there would have to be massive black, liberal, and other Democratic defections, and I think that prospect is mostly Republican wishful thinking, at least for now.

As for Ehrlich, I'm trying to square his decent approval rating with the fact that in the last poll he trailed O'Malley by a significant margin.  The only reason I can think of is that the Republican label hurts, though I suspect that that race will tighten once Ehrlich fully engages in a defense of his own record and criticizes O'Malley's Baltimore record.

[Mike in Maryland]

But like I said before, Republicans targeting this race as a top tier battleground state and do to Republicans winning in statewide races before, like Ehlrich, this will come down to undecided votes, and no lead is safe in MD, VA, NJ, and PA. Just like every poll has Casey up by 18 and Zogby has Casey up by 6. All the seats are competetive because they share media markets, and undecided voters will make the difference.

And since Steele having been Lt. Governor, his appeal to white conserv evangelicals can make  a dent in the Cardin or Mfume machine. But I still think Dems win by 3-5 points. That 12 point lead by Cardin is puffed up.

There aren't as many white religious conservatives in MD as in many other swing states, and I suspect that Steele already has them.  Anyhow, my current prediction is that Cardin, if nominated, wins by about 54-45 or 53-46, while I think Mfume wins by about 51-48, aided by a high black turnout.
I still have this as Leans Democratic in my predictions; same for Pennsylvania, now that you mention it, though I don't think Casey will win by 18.  By about 10 seems a more realistic option.

[Mike in Maryland]

But you have Ehlrich winning.

I base that on the fact that Ehrlich has his own record to sell to voters, while Steele must persuade voters to give President Bush's party and agenda an extra Senate vote, a tougher task given the state's national Democratic tilt and Bush's unpopularity.

Actually, I have the governor's race as a tossup and am considering shifting it to O'Malley.  It's easy to make arguments for either candidate winning.