Associated Press/Ipsos: Mfume (D) leads Steele (R) and leads Cardin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Maryland Senator by Associated Press/Ipsos on 2006-06-25

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mfume is the former NAACP chairman. He resigned over a dispute with Bond over the treatment of Bush. And he is running well because of the black vote in Baltimore.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kweisi Mfume is best on Minimum wage and getting out of the war in Iraq and Cardin isn't that good on the key issues.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Also, Hotline said that either way, Cardin or Mfume will have a tough race against Steele.  Hotline says that Cardin will lose some black support to Steele and Mfume would lose conserv catholics to Steele. And both will be very close to Steele.  Mfume is currently tied to Steele. Cardin may be 12 points ahead, but Hotline said that it isn't going to be that lopsided. They said it come down to swing voters in MD on election day, and they predicted before long, Cardin would only lead by 1.  The NJ, PA, MD, and VA media markets are linked together, and everytime you are a Dem or Republican, if you have a competetive race it will come down to the undecided votes thats why Allen has a race on his hands.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea Mike,  Annapolis is very Republican.  It is mostly Democratic presidentially, but in State races Republicans are more competetive. And all hotline was saying was that MD, VA, NJ, and PA, are not safe seats, the minority party in those 4 states can be competetive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because he can lose African American votes to Steele. And some liberals might now come out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think the hotline was saying that it is not a safe seat. I guess that's all they were saying. And Mike if you think that Ehlrich is unpopular you have him winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But like I said before, Republicans targeting this race as a top tier battleground state and do to Republicans winning in statewide races before, like Ehlrich, this will come down to undecided votes, and no lead is safe in MD, VA, NJ, and PA. Just like every poll has Casey up by 18 and Zogby has Casey up by 6. All the seats are competetive because they share media markets, and undecided voters will make the difference.

And since Steele having been Lt. Governor, his appeal to white conserv evangelicals can make  a dent in the Cardin or Mfume machine. But I still think Dems win by 3-5 points. That 12 point lead by Cardin is puffed up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But you have Ehlrich winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that this race is a tossup now, but lean towards the Dems.  And depends on the money that Kweisi Mfume has. Yes, if Cardin wins the primary he will have a cash advantage.  But Mfume wins he might not, and cause it to be competetive.  I rate this as tossup until Cardin has the lead again in the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mfume will win. Cardin is going to have to go negative to catch up.