2006 Dutch election

[freek]

Based on the preliminary results, I did some calculations and they differ slightly from the predictions in the papers and on television:

CDA: 21
PvdA: 14
CU: 4 (with some doubt, might be 5 as well, as noted in my previous posting CU and SGP shared a list in 2 provinces)
=====
Total 39 or 40 seats, a small majority

VVD: 15
SP: 12
GrLinks: 4
SGP: 2 (but might be 1 as well)
PvdD: 1
D66: 1
Independent Senate Fraction: 1

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

List Pim Fortuyn

[Angel of Death]

List Pim Fortuyn

A bit late to the party, are we? After the Senate will be formally elected, they will be down to a mere 10 municipality council members.

[freek]

Based on the preliminary results, I did some calculations and they differ slightly from the predictions in the papers and on television:

CDA: 21
PvdA: 14
CU: 4 (with some doubt, might be 5 as well, as noted in my previous posting CU and SGP shared a list in 2 provinces)
=====
Total 39 or 40 seats, a small majority

VVD: 15
SP: 12
GrLinks: 4
SGP: 2 (but might be 1 as well)
PvdD: 1
D66: 1
Independent Senate Fraction: 1

Today, Senate elections were held in all 12 Provincial parliaments.

There were more combined lists than ever before, which means that my prediction above is worthless:

CDA, CU & SGP

VVD, D66 & OSF

GrLinks & PvdD

Combined lists means that parties have separate lists, but for surplus seat calculations (D'Hondt), the combined number of votes for all lists in the combination is used, which might result in an extra seat in the Senate

Since smaller provinces have relatively more members in their parliaments, there is a correction factor, based on the population of the province. For an example, see my page on the First Chamber (Senate) elections of 2003: http://www.nlverkiezingen.com/en/EK2003.html

In Noord-Holland province, 1 GroenLinks elector cast an invalid vote on purpose, since he/she tried to vote for 7 parties at a time. This meant that instead of the 5 seats expected with these list combinations, they now have 4 seats. SP gains an extra seat and end up with 12.

Preliminary results:

CDA 21
PvdA 14
CU 5

Coalition: 40 seats

VVD 15
SP 12
GrLinks 4
SGP 1
PvdD 1
D66 1
OSF 1

Opposition 35 seats

[freek]

Preliminary results:

CDA 21
PvdA 14
CU 5

Coalition: 40 seats

VVD 15
SP 12
GrLinks 4
SGP 1
PvdD 1
D66 1
OSF 1

Opposition 35 seats

Final results:

CDA 21
PvdA 14
CU 4

Total 39  seats

VVD 14
SP 12
GrLinks 4
D66 2
SGP 2
PvdD 1
OSF 1

It seems that some prick at the Dutch news agency (or whoever published the preliminary results) forgot to calculate the effect of the combined lists on seat allocation, resulting in VVD and CU losing a seat, and D66 and SGP winning one.