Will China invade Taiwan?

[J. J.]

It's going to be a while, if at all. 

[J. J.]

In looking at the Hong Kong/Macao models, it seems prudent for the PRC just to wait.

[J. J.]

1.  Militarily, it would be costly for the PRC to invade Taiwan.  Taiwan would inflict huge damage on an invading army and would likely form a massive guerilla movement.  Occupation would be far worse that the US in Iraq.

2.  An invasion would destroy resources that the PRC wants (unlike both Kuwait and Iraq).

3.  There are models of peaceful takeovers (Hong Kong and Macao), that worked very well.  While there might be an "Iron fist in a velvet glove" takeover, with an implied military threat, it won't be an invasion.

4.  Internally, the PRC is seeing the advantage of economic, not military, expansion.  It can benefit, much more greatly, from economic ties to Taiwan that it ever could by a bloody occupation (and war with the US).  If the PRC plays its cards right, in 20 years, Taiwan might be asking to be re-incorporated in the PRC.