San Jose State University: Schwarzenegger (R) has a 7 point lead on Angelida

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: California Governor by San Jose State University on 2006-06-30

Summary: D: 37%, R: 44%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

As expected ...

[Sam Spade]

http://www2.sjsu.edu/spri/06survey/calpressr.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't believe this poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It has registered voters and I believe likely voters more. 

[ATFFL]

It has registered voters and I believe likely voters more. 

You do know that likely voter polls tend to pull a few points to the GOP?

[ilikeverin]

It has registered voters and I believe likely voters more. 

You do know that likely voter polls tend to pull a few points to the GOP?

Actually, in this case it might be the other way around; Ahnold might be getting the support of people who could care less about politics (and thus won't vote) but still love him as an actor.

[ATFFL]

It has registered voters and I believe likely voters more. 

You do know that likely voter polls tend to pull a few points to the GOP?

Actually, in this case it might be the other way around; Ahnold might be getting the support of people who could care less about politics (and thus won't vote) but still love him as an actor.

That is possible.  Still, the tendency is for the LV polls to favor the GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It has registered voters and I believe likely voters more. 

You do know that likely voter polls tend to pull a few points to the GOP?

It's not a given in this election. No one really loves Arnold.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not necessarily that reg voters lean Dem because Quinnepiac uses registered voters and they always have Republicans doing better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

US Gallup poll had Kerry behind Bush by 8 points among registered voters in WI and 6 points behind Bush among likely voters.

[ATFFL]

Not necessarily that reg voters lean Dem because Quinnepiac uses registered voters and they always have Republicans doing better.

Do you have any basis for this?  They have the biggest lead for Rendell, are the only pollster to ever have the Dems up in Florida, and, looking at the states they are polling in, are always among the most favorable for the Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea, and in 2004 they had Bush leading Kerry in FL and now they have Crist over Davis.  We go through the same spill every election cycle that says that have Quinnepiac and Strategic Vision and Mason Dixion showing a more Republican bias than the main media polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Davis is behind Crist now in FL by 2, I see they went back to their bias again.

[Sam Spade]

Great, more so-called polling experts...

[ATFFL]

And Davis is behind Crist now in FL by 2, I see they went back to their bias again.

And the other polls have Crist up by more.  The Big Q is pulling to the Dem side of the average.

Yea, and in 2004 they had Bush leading Kerry in FL and now they have Crist over Davis.  We go through the same spill every election cycle that says that have Quinnepiac and Strategic Vision and Mason Dixion showing a more Republican bias than the main media polls.

Umm . . . didn't Bush, ya know, actually win Florida?  They overpolled him by, as I recall, 3%, well within the margin of error, though not as accurate as one would like.  Still, they are a University pollster and this is not bad for, effectively, a bunch of amatuers.  They should have stuck with their next to last poll which had Bush up 3%.

In PA they had a dead heat, 2.5% off the actual result.  Again, in the margin of error and not bad at all.

In NJ, they had Kerry up 5%, about 1.5% off the final result.

All slight pulls to the GOP, yes.  All within the margin of error and all after applying their likely voter screen.  Tough to do for the pros, tougher for students.  They really should stick to RV polls.

Problem with using The Big Q's past results is that half of the staff has been replaced from the 2004 results.  Looking back to 2002, we have 100% turnover outside of professors.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gallup blew up at the end of the election cycle.  They know this and have been looking at their methodology to fix it.  They also had Kerry up 3 in FL and Bush up 4 in PA.  Their methodolgy absolutely failed them and left them with an omlette on their face.


I do wonder who you consider good pollsters?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I simply said in the Republican based battleground Mason Dixon, Strategic Vision, and Quinnepiac oversample more republicans and in the Dem lean battleground they sample more Dems those are the facts. And to deny those facts is not looking at reality.

[ATFFL]

I simply said in the Republican based battleground Mason Dixon, Strategic Vision, and Quinnepiac oversample more republicans and in the Dem lean battleground they sample more Dems those are the facts. And to deny those facts is not looking at reality.

Prove those are facts.  SV does have a consistent GOP lean they are trying to correct as they attempt to become a media pollster.  The Big Q (I love calling them that) varies over time as the people running the polls change.  However, Mason-Dixon has the reputation of being the most accurate state pollster. 

WHICH POLLSTER WAS THE MOST ACCURATE?

I recall Slate Magazine having a similar article with similar conclusions.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yea but in the 1990's they were off. And Mason Dixon said that MN would be closer than what it turned out. And they said Kerry would lose WI and that didn't turn out. But Mason-Dixon samples 37D and 37R and most other pollsters sample 37D-35R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

And Mason Dixon so happened to be accurate last time in OH because their prediction on that sample of republicans came to past. In WI where that weren't that many it turned out to be false.

[Jake]

As anyone with a brain will tell you, six years plus is a long time in polling, so we're going to disregard the 1990s. Let me put it this way, basing a polling firm's reliability on data from three elections ago is akin to ranking a baseball team on their preformance three seasons earlier. It just isn't smart.

Seems like you just don't want to believe Mason-Dixon was correct almost everytime in 2004, so you're picking out the one or two examples of where they were off.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Knight Ridder is part of Mason Dixon and they did poll in the 90's and I recall they predicted AZ and FL would go Republican in 1996 and that didn't come to past.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said that if the number of Republicans came out the way mason dixon came out then in alot of those republican lean battlegronds like OH, FL, MN, and WI will come out to past. But if their poll of republicans doesn't come out they are wrong, and in 2004 we had a huge Republican turnout. That wasn't expected.

[Jake]

Knight Ridder is part of Mason Dixon and they did poll in the 90's and I recall they predicted AZ and FL would go Republican in 1996 and that didn't come to past.

Most normals ignore polling records from ten years ago. I'd advise you to do the same if you wish to stop looking foolish.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I go by LV polls: Gallup, Zogby, and Associated press Ipsos. Any other that uses variety like Knight Ridder, Mason Dixon, or Quinnepiac I forget about. Just like that Univ of Cincy poll had DeWine ahead by 10 and it was registered voters.