Details of Mason-Dixon West Virginia Poll

[millwx]

I have posted a .pdf for those interested.

Thanks for getting this Vorlon!

I'd like to point out, since someone on another threat commented on Bush's strength in the eastern Panhandle...  I have a cabin out there and spend much time there; it is like a DC suburb practically.  I'd be hard-pressed to see Bush winning that part of WV... but, frankly, I was unsure, so I didn't question the statement of Bush's strength there.  That region is the 2nd CG.  This internal data shows Kerry with a decent lead there.  He's better in the 3rd and worse in the 1st, but, nonetheless, at least according to this poll, Kerry leads in the eastern WV Panhandle.  I would expect that.  Thanks again for posting this!

[millwx]

the easternmost one (Jefferson) leans Dem (since the Civil War) and is probably the one you've got your cabin in.

No.  It's in Morgan.  Morgan County *IS* solid Bush, as you note, but it is changing as the Washingtonians invade... this is especially noticeable in the county seat (Berkeley Springs).  Yes, Morgan will STILL probably go for Bush in 2004.  But it went 63%-34% for Bush over Gore in 2000.  I'd bet it'd be around 55%-45% this year.  Berkeley County will probably lean Bush.  Jefferson County will likely go to Kerry... by a smaller percentage win than Morgan goes for Bush, but by more than enough popular vote count for Kerry to take the Panhandle in 2004.

Mind you, most Washingtonians are, like I, part time residents, not registered to vote and, thus, still vote in MD.  So, I'm NOT saying Kerry will suddenly wipe the floor with Bush in all three counties.  No way.  Morgan will almost certainly still go to Bush.  Berkeley is only a little more Dem firendly.  My point is... it's changing, and the gap in Morgan and Berkeley Counties is closing enough such that Jefferson can "flip" the Panhandle to Democrat in a very close election.  In close elections (keep in mind, 2000 was NOT terribly close in WV... not a landslide, but not tight... 6+%), I don't think the Panhandle will ever go Republican in the foreseeable future.  The Dems won't win by huge margins, and may lose one (or two, barely) of the three counties, but they'll take the Panhandle in close elections.

FWIW, Gore lost by about 12% in the Panhandle in WV.  Levelling his 6% statewide loss to simulate a close election, it'll yield a 6% loss in the Panhandle.  The vote total in the Panhandle was about 43,000.  So, 6% is about 2600 votes.  Nader got almost 1000 in the Panhandle.  So, Kerry (or the Dems in general) need only flip about 1500 voters in the entire Panhandle in order to turn that region of the state.  I'd be surprised if this hasn't already happened.

[millwx]

, if you think it might affect Morgan county by 10%, would it affect Frederick county as well?

Not necessarily.  I understand your reasoning on the gap between the major metro area out to Morgan County, but it's not a continuous transition.  Morgan County, because of Berkeley Springs and surrounding towns, is probably Democratizing faster than Berkeley or Jefferson County, WV or Frederick or Montgomery County, MD.

Yes, I do believe, as urban sprawl continues, all of those counties will slowly move left.  But Morgan County is a special case.  It is becoming very "crunchy granola" as the locals call it.  There is a heavy influx in Berkeley Springs and surrounding areas of gays, environmentalists, and otherwise left-of-center people.  MOST are NOT permanent residents, but more and more so are becoming such.  I personally know of a half dozen such people who have moved there in the past fw months (all of who will vote for Kerry, if he's not too RIGHT wing for them!).  Yes, it's only a half-dozen, but this is in a short time, and I wouldn't call myself either a social butterfly or someone who's primarily acquainted with left-wingers.

Anyway, yeah, I think all of those counties will slowly ease left... but Morgan County will do so more rapidly.

[millwx]

This fast growing Loudon county is typical of the fastest growing counties in the US - strongly Republican.  So much for the theory that 'the suburbs are trending left'.

"Strongly Republican" means absolutely nothing in terms of trend.  In fact, the data show Loudon County *definitely* trending "left".  Compare the Loundon County voting to the overall state...
1980 Loudon County was +13.5% Republican (Reagan)
1984 Loudon County was +11.3% Republican (Reagan)
1988 Loudon County was +13.1% Republican (Bush)
1992 Loudon County was +7.2% Republican (Bush)
1996 Loudon County was +9.8% Republican (Dole)
2000 Loudon County was +7.2% Republican (Bush)

This may seem to bounce too much to be an obvious trend, but Loudon County was +4.2% in 1992 compared to the rest of the state for Perot.  Since more (though certainly not all) of Perot's support came from Bush, Loudon County would have otherwise been in the +8 to +12% Republican range (compared to the rest of the state) in 1992 were Perot not there.  So, 1988 is the only bump, and it's a pretty small one at that.  Otherwise, there has been a steady decline in the Republican advantage in Loudon County.

So, over 20 years there's been a greater than 6% Democrat swing in Loudon County.  Growth there (influx of more centrist, if not left of center voters) has not been linear; it has been increasing.  It is no coincidence that 5% of that 6% Democrat swing has been in the past 10 years.  I'm pretty confident in saying that Loudon County will be +5% Republican compared to the rest of the state in the 2004 election.  I expect Bush to win VA by about 5% (maybe a bit more), so Bush should take Loudon County by 10%... 55% to 45% (with some exception for a few percentage to Nader and others).