Bush is Up 2% (3 way) or 1% (Head to Head) says new TIPP/IBD National Poll

[millwx]

Nader 7?  With that we can tell that they have a bad likely voter screen.

3rd party usually polls high anyway early on.  Check out Fox/OD from 2000 (I'm not a huge fan of Fox/OD, but aside from my opinion, they have a good reputation... that's why I'm referring to them)...

At this time of year in 2000 Fox/OD only had Nader at 3%, but only a few weeks later (by late June... after he declared?) he polled 7%.  He then went up to 8% in July.  And while these were RV polls, the issue doesn't appear to be RV versus LV, just people willing to give the 3rd party a look until they realize their vote is important in the two way race.  Why do I think this?  Well, by late July Fox/OD did a Likely Voter poll and Nader's numbers only dropped to 6%.  Then, by September, October, and November, they ran between 3% and 5%... averaging just under 4%.

Gallup was similar, peaking Nader at 6% in a LV poll in June.  Tarrance/Snell, oddly, had him much lower at the same time... still he peaked in their LV poll at 6% too, by early August.

Point is, 7% for Nader in a RV poll is not out of whack.  Even 7% in a LV poll in June/July/August is only slightly high.  If he's still at 7% come September/October, then it's time to ask some serious questions.

[millwx]

Would you consider this poll to be better news for Bush or Kerry?

Personally, I have a tough time telling.  One internal I noticed which I think is bad for Bush is that there are more Democrat undecideds... I'm assuming that's bad for Bush because A) they may be debating between Kerry and Nader (Bush nowhere to be seen) or B) they may well return to the "fold".  But that may be too simplistic... For example, many Southern Dems are rather conservative and may truly be undecided between Bush and Kerry.  BUT, the southern vote has the smallest undecideds, so my GUESS is that A or B above is true.

But Bush is leading among Independents... a clearly bad sign for Kerry.  But there's also a huge pool of undecideds amongst the independents, and who knows how they'll break (traditionally, they'd break to Kerry, but it might be too early to use that guideline).  Based on a STRICT interpretation Kerry should get 6% of the undecideds, Bush 3%... and Kerry should pull 3% of the Nader votes.  That's make it 50% Kerry, 46% Bush.  But, like I said, that strict interpretation may be invalid this early and this year.  So, in the end, I'd just call it even and say neither has an advantage based on this poll.

[millwx]

 Based on a STRICT interpretation Kerry should get 6% of the undecideds, Bush 3%... and Kerry should pull 3% of the Nader votes.  That's make it 50% Kerry, 46% Bush.

Incidentally, this is, surprisingly, almost exactly (definitely within MOE) what the Gallup poll of LV shows.  Even though I'm the one who through that "poll interpretation" out there, I would NOT expect it to be right in a RV poll almost 5 months before the election.  But Gallup pretty much validates this.

So, I'd say this TIPP poll is a split decision... Once "iterpreted" Kerry is probably in the lead, outside the MOE - good news for him.  But Bush has crept up and since we need to "iterpret" to get Kerry in the lead, it means giving Kerry a vast majority of undecideds... a group Bush COULD easily win back over.  Given recent economic news and IF Iraq stabilizes, this may not be at all difficult for Bush to take back those voters.  In that regard, it's good for Bush.