Lake Research: MT Sen. Tester (D) 43%, Burns (R) 42%

[Adlai Stevenson]

A Lake Research poll taken 6/20-6/26 for state Senate Pres. Jon Tester (D) shows him in a statistical tie with Sen. Conrad Burns (R), leading him 43%-42%, with 3% for the Libertarian and 12% undecided. That's a pretty good place for a Senate challenger to be only 4 months out from election day, though GOPers might note that Tester has actually held slightly larger leads in previous public polls. The Lake poll has quite a large sample size (1200 LVs, +/-2.8% MoE) and shows Burns with a fav/unfav of 46%/50% compared to Tester's 48%/18%.

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/07/big_sky_tie.html

[Alcon]

I know we've seen Lake Research poll before, but I do not remember how they did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think this is where the race is at not where Rasmussen says it is.

[Sam Spade]

As I remember, Lake Research is part of the usually-associated-with-Democrats polling firm Lake, Snell and Perry and pollster Celinda Lake, who does the Battleground poll with Republican pollster Ed Goaes.

[ATFFL]

As I remember, Lake Research is part of the usually-associated-with-Democrats polling firm Lake, Snell and Perry and pollster Celinda Lake, who does the Battleground poll with Republican pollster Ed Goaes.

Correct.  They had a bad 2004 when they split with the Tarrance Group over the final Battleground poll.  Tarrance suggested a somewhat even split in the undecideds, which was proven correct, while Lake put 90% of the undecided vote for Kerry. In the end, Tarrance won in getting the official Battleground poll to be what they wanted.  Lake put out a separate interpretation of the poll predicting a Kerry victory.