Rasmussen: Steele(R) catching up to Dems

[Mike in Maryland]

Well, Mfume's lead is within the margin of error--still a bit too close for me to feel comfortable yet, though better than he was often doing earlier in the campaign.

The Cardin/Steele result is somewhat closer than most other recent reliable polls have had, though I'm not sure if that's a trend or just "statistical noise". (500 voters can provide a sizable margin of error.)  Rasmussen has been all over the lot in polling this race (and several others) so I take his results with a grain of salt.  Still, this doesn't look too much off base compared to others, though I have questions about his methodology.

[Mike in Maryland]

The Baltimore Sun just put out a new poll showing Cardin leading Steele by 11 and Mfume ahead by 2.  In the Democratic primary, Cardin led Mfume by 4 points with about a third still undecided.

[Mike in Maryland]

Mfume cannot beat Steele statewide, period. There really isn't a whole lot else to say. If you know anything about politics and can bring your pro-Dem bias down from +8,000,000% for one second, it would be rather obvious.

Steele holds the entire GOP. Independents lean Steele. White Dems defect in relatively high quantities. Game over. He doesn't even need black votes.

Not so fast.  There are a lot of liberal white Democrats and independents, especially in the DC suburbs (where I live), that will vote for Mfume if nominated.   Whatever the race or personal characteristics of the candidates, these voters are not going to vote to give another Senate seat to the party of George W. Bush.

That said, I'm not sure if there are enough of those voters to put Mfume over the top.  The Baltimore area has a lot of more conservative white Democrats and independents that will defect from Mfume, though not necessarily enough to swing the election.   Most of them will likely stick by Cardin, however.