pieman
Rookie
Posts: 141
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« on: June 09, 2004, 10:55:06 PM » |
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I think voters perceptions and voting patterns can be much different in congressional races than presidential elections. Particularly when the challenger is unknown.
A lot of voters will wait until the last week before they even look at the congressional race in detail. A challenger would get their first serious look at this point and if they are gaining momentum throughout the race could easily sway voters their way.
As previously stated, in a race with a celebrity, scandal, or known challenger, the challenger bump is muted.
A challenger bump also seems to be less likely if the electorate already has a perceived "feel" for what the challenger is like either via previous office or celebrity status. There is less untapped momentum that can be exploited by the challenger.
A lot of times a challenger will bring a new issue or idea to an election and it takes time to gain traction. Sometimes this new issue or idea is reflected in a personal strength that counters an incumbent's weakness. A highly ethical challenger, for example, against a scandal plagued incumbent.
I would suggest that the challenger bump is due to a lack of serious exposure to the challenger or the challenger's issues or ideas.
In the current presidential race we are missing a lot of the factors that could lead to a challenger bump due to a lack of serious exposure to the challenger or his ideas. First, the electorate is much more in tune with a Presidential race than a congressional race. Second, the challenger is well known 20 year senator. Third, Bush's approval numbers are down in part due to Abu Grahaib, a "scandal." Fourth, Kerry is not putting forth any new issues or ideas that the electorate is considering.
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