Favored Quarters

[Sol]

Inspired by Palandio's post in the progressive moderate thread, I figured it'd be good to analyze how favored quarter vote/have swung. I think it'd be best to first find what exactly are the 50 largest cities' cities favored quarters, so that then we can go in on their voting patterns.

NYC--not clear if there is a favored quarter. Maybe an argument for Westchester?
LA--Western LA (Malibu, Beverly Hills, etc.)
Chicago--North Side
Dallas-Fort Worth--North Side
Houston--West Side
DC--West/northwest Side
Miami--not clear to me--possibly the east/areas along the coast?
Philadelphia--West side/Main Line
Atlanta--North Side
Phoenix--North Side
Boston--Northwest Side
San Francisco--Not an obvious favored quarter?
Detroit--not super clear, maybe an argument for the NW?
Seattle--not sure--maybe Eastern?
Minneapolis--Western
San Diego--Northern
Tampa--Southern
Denver--Southern
St. Louis--Western
Baltimore--Northern
Charlotte--Southern
Orlando--Tbh I don't know Orlando well enough to say--it seems very jumbled?
San Antonio--Northern
Portland--Western
Sacramento--Eastern? Another city I don't know as well as I should
Pittsburgh--not a clear favored quarter--the geography is too chaotic for one.
Las Vegas--Northwest? Seems very jumbled.
Austin--West
Cincinnati--Eastern/northeastern
Kansas City--Southwest
Columbus--Northern
Indianapolis--Northern
Cleveland--Eastern (with a rather interesting pattern--the favored quarter is surrounded by poorer majority Black areas)
Nashville--Southwest
Hampton Roads--seems fairly jumbled, in line with the multinodal nature of the cities.
Providence--Not sure (not that knowledgeable about RI, apologies)
Milwaukee--Northern
Jacksonville--Southeastern
OKC--Northwestern
Raleigh--Northern
Memphis--Eastern
Richmond--Northwestern
New Orleans--Western
Louisville--Northeastern
SLC--Eastern
Hartford--Western
Buffalo--Northeastern
Birmingham--Southeast

[lfromnj]

Orlando is central Orange to Southern Seminole, northern Seminole has Sanford which is a heavily AA exurb.

In Cleveland its actually a mix.Rocky River and Lakewood are on the West. Its only the southern part without any rich suburbs. It follows the OG Streetcar lines in Cleveland.

Portland- to be specific is West of the River with a very clearly divide going on in Clackamas county between two cities on opposite sides of the river. The one exception is Happy Valley.

Cincinatti is actually very clear,
Yes it is Eastern and NE with a line extending into SW Warren County.

Western suburbs are more middle class whiteflight exurbs while northern suburbs are lower middle class , diverse suburbs.

In Pittsburgh its mostly on the Northern side and Western side with a line extending int Butler, however both SW and NE have some high income areas. Only the Southern and SE Pittsburgh  suburbs don't really have any favored areas.

NYC is fairly large, however there is a favored quarter in the NE, such as northern Nassau and NW Suffolk, Southern Fairfield, and Eastern Westchester seems a bit more rich. On the NJ side its a bit different and more of a radiation.

[Sol]

You can see here the relative common-ness of Western favored quarters, which has been oft-discussed due to Western areas being upwind of industry. 17 of the top 50 cities have their favored quarters to the west in some way (unless I miscounted).

Interestingly, as discussed in the other threads, Northern favored quarters are very common, without an obvious explanation, with 18 of the cities included (double counting NW favored quarters). There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for this, and I'm curious if it's just a coincidence or the result of some other factor.

[lfromnj]

You can see here the relative common-ness of Western favored quarters, which has been oft-discussed due to Western areas being upwind of industry. 17 of the top 50 cities have their favored quarters to the west in some way (unless I miscounted).

Interestingly, as discussed in the other threads, Northern favored quarters are very common, without an obvious explanation, with 18 of the cities included (double counting NW favored quarters). There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for this, and I'm curious if it's just a coincidence or the result of some other factor.

Midwestern theory might be easier to reach summer vacation retreat?

[kwabbit]

You can see here the relative common-ness of Western favored quarters, which has been oft-discussed due to Western areas being upwind of industry. 17 of the top 50 cities have their favored quarters to the west in some way (unless I miscounted).

Interestingly, as discussed in the other threads, Northern favored quarters are very common, without an obvious explanation, with 18 of the cities included (double counting NW favored quarters). There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for this, and I'm curious if it's just a coincidence or the result of some other factor.

Midwestern theory might be summer vacation retreat?

My guess is that winds in those areas usually blow from north to south, resulting in better air quality to the north of the city and worse to the south of the city. When suburbanization/White flight occurred post WWII, most of the White urban professionals moved to the north where the air quality was more pleasant.

[lfromnj]

You can see here the relative common-ness of Western favored quarters, which has been oft-discussed due to Western areas being upwind of industry. 17 of the top 50 cities have their favored quarters to the west in some way (unless I miscounted).

Interestingly, as discussed in the other threads, Northern favored quarters are very common, without an obvious explanation, with 18 of the cities included (double counting NW favored quarters). There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for this, and I'm curious if it's just a coincidence or the result of some other factor.

Midwestern theory might be summer vacation retreat?

My guess is that winds in those areas usually blow from north to south, resulting in better air quality to the north of the city and worse to the south of the city. When suburbanization/White flight occurred post WWII, most of the White urban professionals moved to the north where the air quality was more pleasant.

White suburbanization did occur mostly post World War 2, however these favored quarters are from the 19th century as these were the early Rich groups.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Miami is southwest from Miami Beach towards Brickell,  Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Cutler Bay.

NY is too jumbled to be relevant but NE towards Westchester and CT would make sense except for the Bronx. Really, though, NY is a story of alternating rings of wealth and poverty.

Also linking to this in case it's relevant: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=406625.msg7681257#msg7681257

[kwabbit]

You can see here the relative common-ness of Western favored quarters, which has been oft-discussed due to Western areas being upwind of industry. 17 of the top 50 cities have their favored quarters to the west in some way (unless I miscounted).

Interestingly, as discussed in the other threads, Northern favored quarters are very common, without an obvious explanation, with 18 of the cities included (double counting NW favored quarters). There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for this, and I'm curious if it's just a coincidence or the result of some other factor.

Midwestern theory might be summer vacation retreat?

My guess is that winds in those areas usually blow from north to south, resulting in better air quality to the north of the city and worse to the south of the city. When suburbanization/White flight occurred post WWII, most of the White urban professionals moved to the north where the air quality was more pleasant.

White suburbanization did occur mostly post World War 2, however these favored quarters are from the 19th century as these were the early Rich groups.

How early in the 19th century? 1875 then air pollution might've been an issue still. 1825 then I have no idea.

[Sol]

You can see here the relative common-ness of Western favored quarters, which has been oft-discussed due to Western areas being upwind of industry. 17 of the top 50 cities have their favored quarters to the west in some way (unless I miscounted).

Interestingly, as discussed in the other threads, Northern favored quarters are very common, without an obvious explanation, with 18 of the cities included (double counting NW favored quarters). There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for this, and I'm curious if it's just a coincidence or the result of some other factor.

Midwestern theory might be summer vacation retreat?

Hmm, maybe. In a lot of cases it makes sense--like Chicago for example the lakeshore runs slightly diagonal, so the North is also slightly west--so you're upwind and you have waterfront property.

[lfromnj]

Basically NE/Midwestern Favored quarters are very old/old money.(Think late 19th century around) I assume there would also be a bit of this in the earliest West Coast cities and New Orleans too due to when they were built. However most Southern/SW cities only really started to grow post WW2 and the change was much greater in those areas meaning their favored quarters in general are a bit more new.

In the Midwest favored quarters may have been brought along with "public transportation" in the form of streetcars. Meanwhile in the South they have actively avoided public transportation.

[Sol]

You can see here the relative common-ness of Western favored quarters, which has been oft-discussed due to Western areas being upwind of industry. 17 of the top 50 cities have their favored quarters to the west in some way (unless I miscounted).

Interestingly, as discussed in the other threads, Northern favored quarters are very common, without an obvious explanation, with 18 of the cities included (double counting NW favored quarters). There doesn't seem to be an obvious explanation for this, and I'm curious if it's just a coincidence or the result of some other factor.

Midwestern theory might be summer vacation retreat?

My guess is that winds in those areas usually blow from north to south, resulting in better air quality to the north of the city and worse to the south of the city. When suburbanization/White flight occurred post WWII, most of the White urban professionals moved to the north where the air quality was more pleasant.

White suburbanization did occur mostly post World War 2, however these favored quarters are from the 19th century as these were the early Rich groups.

How early in the 19th century? 1875 then air pollution might've been an issue still. 1825 then I have no idea.

It's kind of a path dependence as well--once an area gets a reputation for being desirable the wealthy will naturally continue to flock to it, even if the original factor is no longer relevant.

[Gracile]

I’m not familiar with every single city here, but some of these regions seem way too broad and could be better targeted by neighborhood or zip code (I had a similar issue with Blairite’s thread on the same subject). Even in relatively affluent areas there is a large amount of socioeconomic diversity.

[Sol]

I’m not familiar with every single city here, but some of these regions seem way too broad and could be better targeted by neighborhood or zip code (I had a similar issue with Blairite’s thread on the same subject). Even in relatively affluent areas there is a large amount of socioeconomic diversity.

I guess, but I'd say this is a little more broadly targeted?

For example, there are definitely fairly poor or middle class sections of Chicago in the North Side, and there are absolutely rich sections of the metro area outside of the favored quarter--jesus, look at Naperville! However, if you look at income maps of the region, you get a classic radiating wedge appearance where a large chunk of the richest communities in a metro area are in it.

[King of Kensington]

Income maps for 8 Canadian cities:

http://neighbourhoodchange.ca/documents/2015/12/maps-of-ct-incomes-eight-cmas-2012.pdf

Halifax:  South

Montreal:  West/SW

Ottawa:   Rockcliffe Park is wealthiest (east of Rideau Canal) but western suburbs somewhat wealthier than eastern suburbs

Toronto:  Affluent central corridor/northern sector, secondary wealth concentration in western GTA suburbs

Winnipeg: South

Calgary:  West

Vancouver:  West Side and North Shore suburbs

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I’m not familiar with every single city here, but some of these regions seem way too broad and could be better targeted by neighborhood or zip code (I had a similar issue with Blairite’s thread on the same subject). Even in relatively affluent areas there is a large amount of socioeconomic diversity.

I guess, but I'd say this is a little more broadly targeted?

For example, there are definitely fairly poor or middle class sections of Chicago in the North Side, and there are absolutely rich sections of the metro area outside of the favored quarter--jesus, look at Naperville! However, if you look at income maps of the region, you get a classic radiating wedge appearance where a large chunk of the richest communities in a metro area are in it.

I agree, and I also think it's worthwhile to look at the region in aggregate instead of microtargeting zip codes. Favored quarters as a whole differ from the rest of their regions, even after adjusting for income. It's worthwhile to see if common electoral trends apply to the whole wedge, and not just certain zip codes.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Seattle is definitely the area east of Lake Washington- this reflected both in the concentration of 1%ers on the east shore of the lake, and the bigger swings towards Biden in Redmond, Sammamish, and (to a slightly lesser extent) Bellevue than elsewhere in suburban King County.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastside_%28King_County,_Washington%29

[Alcibiades]

For New York, it is quite difficult to establish one. You have the Upper East Side and Upper West Side in Manhattan, but to link them with the wealthy suburban sections of Westchester (lfromnj is right that the east of the county is the wealthiest part, e.g. Rye, although the single wealthiest town is Bronxville in the south-centre, which is more of a conservative WASPy place along the lines of Darien or New Canaan) and Fairfield County, you have to go through the South Bronx (which is home to the poorest congressional district in the nation). Then of course you have other disconnected wealthy places on Long Island (many of which, such as Oyster Bay and Locust Valley, are still Republican) and in NJ.

In San Francisco, maybe the wealthy northern parts of the city such as Pacific Heights linked across the water to Marin County? But then you have the wealthy areas in Silicon Valley which can’t be connected.

For an international perspective, I think London has a pretty clear favoured quarter which radiates southwest from the city centre. From the centre outwards, it runs from the likes of Mayfair, Knightsbridge, Kensington and Chelsea, then crosses the river and takes in the leafy southwest London suburbs such as Putney, Wimbledon, Barnes and Richmond-upon-Thames, finishing in the ‘Stockbroker Belt’ towns in Surrey e.g. Esher, Oxshott and Cobham. There are of course other affluent areas outside of this wedge, such as Hampstead and Highgate in North London.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

In San Francisco, maybe the wealthy northern parts of the city such as Pacific Heights linked across the water to Marin County? But then you have the wealthy areas in Silicon Valley which can’t be connected.

Yeah, the idea of a favored quarter in the Bay Area radiating from Downtown SF is completely unworkable. It just doesn't make sense. That said, wealth does concentrate towards the Pacific, so the "belt" from Marin through the whole city and peninsula and along the western Silicon Valley (Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Los Gatos, etc.) is basically the closest comparison you're gonna get.

[Sol]

For New York, it is quite difficult to establish one. You have the Upper East Side and Upper West Side in Manhattan, but to link them with the wealthy suburban sections of Westchester (lfromnj is right that the east of the county is the wealthiest part, e.g. Rye, although the single wealthiest town is Bronxville in the south-centre, which is more of a conservative WASPy place along the lines of Darien or New Canaan) and Fairfield County, you have to go through the South Bronx (which is home to the poorest congressional district in the nation). Then of course you have other disconnected wealthy places on Long Island (many of which, such as Oyster Bay and Locust Valley, are still Republican) and in NJ.

The north also looks even weaker as a possibility when you turn back the clock fiftie-ish years to the Upper West Side of mid-20th century, which was pretty darn poor. Peggy Olson's apartment in a dangerous area on Mad Men is now in a very rich area.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Kind of irrelevant but I'm Italian so why not. The eight largest cities in Italy:

Turin: East side i.e. the nice hilly right bank of the River Po. Extends to the suburbs - Pino Torinese is in the top 10 richest municipalities in Italy. [also the historic centre and the immediately southward neighbourhood Crocetta, but that's less notable]
Genoa: East coast, especially near East (Albaro), plus the 19th century additions immediately north/east of the historic centre. It's absurdly clear. [the medieval centre itself is notably quite poor instead]
Milan: It doesn't exist, actually. Wealth pretty much decreases radially away from the centre.
Bologna: South side i.e. again, the nice hilly side - the very name of the neighbourhood is Colli (Hills). Starting out from the historic centre.
Florence: Unclear? It's easier to identify a "non-favoured quarter", which is the West side.
Rome: Near North side. Not the only place (there is also e.g. EUR, the home of the corporations, to the south) but overall it's fairly clear. Bougie Roma Nord vs. proletarian Roma Sud is a pretty famous meme. [the actual #proletariat lives outside the Great Ring Junction, but that's beside the point]
Naples: Near West side, though it's a bit complicated to describe because it has an extension protruding on the coast (Posillipo).
Palermo: Can't find any proper data, but I suspect it's something like centre-to-North-side.

[Battista Minola 1616]

For New York, it is quite difficult to establish one. You have the Upper East Side and Upper West Side in Manhattan, but to link them with the wealthy suburban sections of Westchester (lfromnj is right that the east of the county is the wealthiest part, e.g. Rye, although the single wealthiest town is Bronxville in the south-centre, which is more of a conservative WASPy place along the lines of Darien or New Canaan) and Fairfield County, you have to go through the South Bronx (which is home to the poorest congressional district in the nation). Then of course you have other disconnected wealthy places on Long Island (many of which, such as Oyster Bay and Locust Valley, are still Republican) and in NJ.

The north also looks even weaker as a possibility when you turn back the clock fiftie-ish years to the Upper West Side of mid-20th century, which was pretty darn poor. Peggy Olson's apartment in dangerous area on Mad Men is now in a very rich area.

West Side Story is set in the (1950's) Upper West Side. 'Nuff said.

[Alcibiades]

Kind of irrelevant but I'm Italian so why not. The eight largest cities in Italy:

Turin: East side i.e. the nice hilly right bank of the River Po. Extends to the suburbs - Pino Torinese is in the top 10 richest municipalities in Italy. [also the historic centre and the immediately southward neighbourhood Crocetta, but that's less notable]
Genoa: East coast, especially near East (Albaro), plus the 19th century additions immediately north/east of the historic centre. It's absurdly clear. [the medieval centre itself is notably quite poor instead]
Milan: It doesn't exist, actually. Wealth pretty much decreases radially away from the centre.
Bologna: South side i.e. again, the nice hilly side - the very name of the neighbourhood is Colli (Hills). Starting out from the historic centre.
Florence: Unclear? It's easier to identify a "non-favoured quarter", which is the West side.
Rome: Near North side. Not the only place (there is also e.g. EUR, the home of the corporations, to the south) but overall it's fairly clear. Bougie Roma Nord vs. proletarian Roma Sud is a pretty famous meme. [the actual #proletariat lives outside the Great Ring Junction, but that's beside the point]
Naples: Near West side, though it's a bit complicated to describe because it has an extension protruding on the coast (Posillipo).
Palermo: Can't find any proper data, but I suspect it's something like centre-to-North-side.

Speaking of hills, they are a very obvious place for wealthy neighbourhoods to be - in London, Richmond, Wimbledon, Hampstead and Highgate are all on hills. In terms of the US, LA and San Francisco immediately spring to mind as having a similar situation (and Portland, IIRC?) - any other US examples?

[Oryxslayer]

In San Francisco, maybe the wealthy northern parts of the city such as Pacific Heights linked across the water to Marin County? But then you have the wealthy areas in Silicon Valley which can’t be connected.

Yeah, the idea of a favored quarter in the Bay Area radiating from Downtown SF is completely unworkable. It just doesn't make sense. That said, wealth does concentrate towards the Pacific, so the "belt" from Marin through the whole city and peninsula and along the western Silicon Valley (Sunnyvale, Cupertino, Los Gatos, etc.) is basically the closest comparison you're gonna get.

I'm going to propose the argument that since the Tech boom in the 90s, nearly the entirety of SF is the favored quarter. The Bay Area is nearly geographically unique in the US (only comparable city is NYC and that has a bunch of other structural differences), which forces a bunch development differences upon the city. The multitude of Hills and Valleys form natural arteries and Residential quarters, which in turn promotes NIMBYism. Now yes, Pacific Heights and various other neighborhoods clustered in the NW were the home for old money, but the views, microclimates, and historically preserved buildings have led to the money spreading across the city. Now, there are plenty of long-term residents still in SF that carry on the feel of being comparatively less wealthy, particularly in the Sunset, but the wealth has diversified.

In turn, the poor parts of the city followed the European style of cities and ended up distant from the city center, since commuting around the hills or across a bridge was undesirable. The manufacturing, dockworking, and industrial jobs were in the east bay, and that's where the majority of low-income residents ended up. Down the peninsula you have areas like the Excelsior, Bayview-hunters point, Daly City, South SF, and other outlying suburbs with diverse and low-income residents. Some of the first SF suburbs were for low-income migrants south of the city who came for wartime industries.

The gap between SF and her immediate suburbs was a long-time thing, but tech only intensified it. The tenderloin got squeezed and residents cashed out on rising property values. Newer developments are full of those with the money to avoid long commutes. Those looking to make it end up in the east bay or peninsula developments and commute using BART/Caltrain. You have to go rather far down the peninsula to find the old retreats of the 19th century wealthy: Atherton, Palo Alto, Burlingame, Melo Park. But these are more San Jose/Silicon Valley suburbs that behave similar to other American development patterns.

[Battista Minola 1616]

Kind of irrelevant but I'm Italian so why not. The eight largest cities in Italy:

Turin: East side i.e. the nice hilly right bank of the River Po. Extends to the suburbs - Pino Torinese is in the top 10 richest municipalities in Italy. [also the historic centre and the immediately southward neighbourhood Crocetta, but that's less notable]
Genoa: East coast, especially near East (Albaro), plus the 19th century additions immediately north/east of the historic centre. It's absurdly clear. [the medieval centre itself is notably quite poor instead]
Milan: It doesn't exist, actually. Wealth pretty much decreases radially away from the centre.
Bologna: South side i.e. again, the nice hilly side - the very name of the neighbourhood is Colli (Hills). Starting out from the historic centre.
Florence: Unclear? It's easier to identify a "non-favoured quarter", which is the West side.
Rome: Near North side. Not the only place (there is also e.g. EUR, the home of the corporations, to the south) but overall it's fairly clear. Bougie Roma Nord vs. proletarian Roma Sud is a pretty famous meme. [the actual #proletariat lives outside the Great Ring Junction, but that's beside the point]
Naples: Near West side, though it's a bit complicated to describe because it has an extension protruding on the coast (Posillipo).
Palermo: Can't find any proper data, but I suspect it's something like centre-to-North-side.

Speaking of hills, they are a very obvious place for wealthy neighbourhoods to be - in London, Richmond, Wimbledon, Hampstead and Highgate are all on hills. In terms of the US, LA and San Francisco immediately spring to mind as having a similar situation (and Portland, IIRC?) - any other US examples?

Yes they are, and I suspect that one of the reasons why a proper favoured quarter doesn't exist in Milan is that everything is flat.

In the US Birmingham (Hoover) seems another obvious example. Maybe sorta kinda Boston or Atlanta? I don't know.

[Sol]

Kind of irrelevant but I'm Italian so why not. The eight largest cities in Italy:

Turin: East side i.e. the nice hilly right bank of the River Po. Extends to the suburbs - Pino Torinese is in the top 10 richest municipalities in Italy. [also the historic centre and the immediately southward neighbourhood Crocetta, but that's less notable]
Genoa: East coast, especially near East (Albaro), plus the 19th century additions immediately north/east of the historic centre. It's absurdly clear. [the medieval centre itself is notably quite poor instead]
Milan: It doesn't exist, actually. Wealth pretty much decreases radially away from the centre.
Bologna: South side i.e. again, the nice hilly side - the very name of the neighbourhood is Colli (Hills). Starting out from the historic centre.
Florence: Unclear? It's easier to identify a "non-favoured quarter", which is the West side.
Rome: Near North side. Not the only place (there is also e.g. EUR, the home of the corporations, to the south) but overall it's fairly clear. Bougie Roma Nord vs. proletarian Roma Sud is a pretty famous meme. [the actual #proletariat lives outside the Great Ring Junction, but that's beside the point]
Naples: Near West side, though it's a bit complicated to describe because it has an extension protruding on the coast (Posillipo).
Palermo: Can't find any proper data, but I suspect it's something like centre-to-North-side.

Speaking of hills, they are a very obvious place for wealthy neighbourhoods to be - in London, Richmond, Wimbledon, Hampstead and Highgate are all on hills. In terms of the US, LA and San Francisco immediately spring to mind as having a similar situation (and Portland, IIRC?) - any other US examples?

Pittsburgh, interestingly is sort of the opposite, though it isn't a perfect correlation. Some of the poorest neighborhoods in the city, like the Hill District or Glen Hazel, are in hillier areas. The correlation isn't perfect though.