Rocky Mountian: Kyl(R) is still under 50% against Pederson(D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Rocky Mountian on 2006-07-21

Summary: D: 27%, R: 45%, U: 25%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Adlai Stevenson]

By now I am beginning to move this race down the priority order for Democrats in November.  Pederson is self funding and they should just leave him to it, if he can't seem to close the gap in the polls then the DSCC should focus on Tennessee and Virginia as the two more long shot states.  I think Pederson will eventually start polling where Kerry was in 2004 but I don't see him winning now.  Kyl's quiet but effective record in the Senate is clearly enough for most Arizonans and in the end the election should break down party lines. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I disagree with you this race is still in play look at the New York  Times ratings. And Kyl can't get above 50%.

[Alcon]

Please be more careful when listing polls.  You did not include undecideds.

Also, being under 50% isn't all that relevant, especially when you are almost beating your opponent 2-to-1.  Kyl needs 3% more to win; Pederson needs 23%.  It could end up competitive, but right now, it just isn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well unless  he reaches that 55% mark, he is vulnerable, that is the safe zone for an incumbant. By the way AZ voted Dem in 1996 so I think it can be competetive and Charlie Cook has it listed as lean Republican not likely or safe Republican. It is Republican lean but not safe. And by the way this race is no less competetive than the WA that have a survey by Field poll that had her up 52-23% over McGavick. If Wa is competetive so is AZ.

[Flying Dog]

My Guess is that Pederson is at the high 30's while kyl is at low 50's

[Sam Spade]

Your polling link does not work.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I corrected it.

[AuH2O]

"Under 50%" is one way to put it. Destroying Pederson is another. This poll just didn't push respondents, lots of "undecideds."

Never was a race. Never will be.

[Sam Spade]

I corrected it.

Thank you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a race, it is a lean republican race just like VA. NY Times have it a closely watched race. Pederson has a lot of money and after the primary will make it a race. The NY Times ratings can be found onhttp://www.nytimes.com/ref/washington/2006ELECTIONGUIDE.html?currentDataSet=senANALYSIS. Like I said if Maria Cantwell's race is competetive and she had a lead of 52-23% then this can be a race as well.

[nini2287]

This is a race, it is a lean republican race just like VA. NY Times have it a closely watched race.

STOP THE PRESSES THE NEW YORK TIMES LISTS THIS AS A LEAN REPUBLICAN RACE OF COURSE PEDERSON COULD WIN.

The site only lists 7 seats as strong GOP--Mississippi (sorry Harry), Wyoming, Maine, Texas, Utah, Nevada and Indiana:  all of which are safer than Arizona.

The site includes Michigan and Nebraska as lean Democrat-the Democrats will easily win both seats.

So I fail to see your point about this being a competitive race.

[AuH2O]

It will be interesting to see who wins by more, Kyl or Allen. Those races "lean" in the same way a tree is "leaning" as it falls over. The outcome is the same. GOP wins both easily. There's a better chance the GOP wins in Connecticut (with a new candidate) than loses in either Arizona or Virginia.

[Eraserhead]

It will be interesting to see who wins by more, Kyl or Allen. Those races "lean" in the same way a tree is "leaning" as it falls over. The outcome is the same. GOP wins both easily. There's a better chance the GOP wins in Connecticut (with a new candidate) than loses in either Arizona or Virginia.

Uhh....no. Just no. Unless the new candidate is Jodi Rell herself or Mike Bloomberg moves to Connecticut.

[Tender Branson]

I think this race is pretty much over. Kyl´s approval isn´t that high but it´s ticking upwards. An average of the last 10 polls show him ahead 47,5 to 35,1. Because it will be a 2-way-race it would translate into a 57,5 to 42,5 win for Kyl in the general. Allthough I think he will win not by such a margin, everything points to it. AZ since 1995 has not elected a Dem. Senator and Kyl has a huge cash advantage. Comparing the electability of a democratic senator with the 1992 and 1996 wins of Clinton is nonsense. Senate and Presidential elections are 2 pairs of shoes. I may be proven wrong and there´s a long way to go until November, but I think that for the Dems bringing the WA, MT, MN, MO, OH, NJ, RI races over the finish line is far more important than AZ. Better focus on TN and VA or 2008. In 08 out of the 33 seats contested 21 will be Republican ones.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like I said, Cantwell have had substantial leads on McGavick, the same one, 52-23% and if that can be competetive, then so can AZ. Also, in the Zogby polls, Pederson was down by 8 and Webb down by 10. As far as the NY Times poll AZ is a closely watch race and Neb and MI isn't.

[MissCatholic]

this is the sleeper.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It still needs to be watch until Kyl reaches the 55% mark that is the safe zone for an incumbant Senator.