Each fifth voter in AZ is going to be a new one.

[Shira]

In 1984 Reagan got in AZ 7.65% more than nationally.
In 1988 Bush Sr. Got there 5.95% above his national number.
In 2000, Bush Jr. got in AZ  2.95% above his national figure.
Notice that the population growth in AZ is the highest in the nation - 3.4% per year.
Almost every fifth voter in 2004 will be new in AZ.
It is going to be interesting in all the three desert states:
NM, AZ and NV.

[Lunar]

How is 3.4% every fifth voter?

Even if it was 20%, which would translate into "every fifth voter" under your logic, it still wouldn't mean that.  Population growth includes many not allowed to vote, and many new people coming it won't be registered even if they're eligible.

[millwx]

How is 3.4% every fifth voter?

Lunar, I wont defend every point made by Shira, because you also raise some good points, but you do notice that there arefour years between presidential elections?  The rate of increase of 3.4% is annual.  Compounded over four years, that's nearly 15% (still not one in five... actually more like one in seven... but a far cry from the one in thirty the single year 3.4% yields).

[opebo]

Most AZ newcomers are elderly Republicans or young hispanics who don't vote.

[Lunar]

How is 3.4% every fifth voter?

Lunar, I wont defend every point made by Shira, because you also raise some good points, but you do notice that there arefour years between presidential elections?  The rate of increase of 3.4% is annual.  Compounded over four years, that's nearly 15% (still not one in five... actually more like one in seven... but a far cry from the one in thirty the single year 3.4% yields).

Oh, good point.  I forgot to take into account four years.

Since it is comulative, it might actually be closer to the numbers that Shira gave.  Assuming that 3.4% is the accurate number for each year, they would build on top of each other and make it 18.2%, pretty close to 1 in 5.

[Rococo4]

In 1984 Reagan got in AZ 7.65% more than nationally.
In 1988 Bush Sr. Got there 5.95% above his national number.
In 2000, Bush Jr. got in AZ  2.95% above his national figure.
Notice that the population growth in AZ is the highest in the nation - 3.4% per year.
Almost every fifth voter in 2004 will be new in AZ.
It is going to be interesting in all the three desert states:
NM, AZ and NV.

In all your posts you keep saying Bush Jr.  I am not sure who that is.  Maybe you mean George W. Bush, i dont know.  

[Shira]

The number of voters in the 2000 elections was 1,470,000
The number this time is going to be around 1,678,000 which is higher by 208,000 than the 2000’s one. Out of the 1,470,000 2000 voters approximately 100,000 have passed away during these four years, which means that the number of new voters would be around the 308,000.
Notice that the number of electoral votes in AZ grew from 8 to 10.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry Shira,

Speculation about voter turnout this years is, well, speculation.

Registered voters currently stand at 2,274.367, and at 2.045.835 at this same point four years ago, an increase of 11+%.

Lunar is quite correct  in that population growth does not translate into growth at the same rate in the number of actual voters.

[struct310]

The new voters coming in are 50/50.  The state wont change very much at all.  Most are strong to moderate republicans moved to AZ due to bad business climates in California.  The registration cut that the dem party is flouting is a fluke and only happened as a result of dem primaries.  Once the real race starts every thing goes back to normal, except Bush will increase his 6pt 2000 win to 8 or 10pt.