Senate Elections - 2004

[jravnsbo]

Martinez's Senate bid gets a boost
U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is backing Mel Martinez for Florida senator, putting her at odds with other Cuban-American Republicans in Congress.
BY LESLEY CLARK
lclark@herald.com

Breaking ranks with her Cuban-American Republican colleagues in Congress, U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is endorsing former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez for the U.S. Senate.

Ros-Lehtinen's fellow Miami Republicans, U.S. Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and Mario Diaz-Balart, months ago endorsed former U.S. Rep. Bill McCollum in the race, but Ros-Lehtinen said Wednesday she believes that Martinez, who is Cuban American, has a better shot at winning a general election.

''Mel is a better fit than any of the other candidates,'' Ros-Lehtinen said. ``I consider Bill [McCollum] a wonderful Republican, but I don't think he's got the bipartisan, reach-across-the-aisle appeal that Mel has.''

Ros-Lehtinen's backing is the latest in a flurry of endorsements of candidates in a crowded field vying to replace the retiring U.S. Sen. Bob Graham.

On Friday, the state's largest teachers union backed former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor in the Democratic primary, saying the one-time teacher ``can best deliver the message in favor of strong public education to the voters in the August primary and beyond.''

The teachers' backing comes with substantial grass-roots support, said Castor's campaign manager, Jeff Garcia. Castor leads her opponents in the polls but has not raised as much cash. Her rivals include U.S. Rep. Peter Deutsch of Lauderhill and Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas.

The teachers union, the Florida Education Association, which generally backs Democrats in the general election, has yet to make a recommendation in the Republican field.

Ros-Lehtinen, who will make her endorsement official Friday at the Little Havana Activities and Nutrition Center in Miami, said it is not unusual for her and the Diaz-Balart brothers to go different ways.

''We're definitely not triplets,'' she said, laughing. ``We're individuals.''

Martinez jumped into the race this month after prodding from President Bush's senior political advisors, who see the former Orange County chairman as someone who can carry his Central Florida home and appeal to Hispanic voters across the state.

In addition to McCollum, who leads in polls and fundraising, the Republican side includes state House Speaker Johnnie Byrd, state Sen. Daniel Webster, Miami attorney Larry Klayman and former U.S. Sen. Bob Smith of New Hampshire, now living in Longboat Key.
 

[NHPolitico]

WASHINGTON - Former Sen. Gary Hart likely won't run for the Senate this year, the Democratic Party's top Senate recruiter said Tuesday.

"Gary Hart has made it clear he probably won't run," said Sen. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

In a brief interview with The Denver Post, Corzine said Hart's reservations boiled down to "economics." He did not offer further specifics. Although Hart is a Denver lawyer who travels all over the world, he is not known to be wealthy.

Corzine's comments confirm what Democratic officials have been saying privately for weeks. It would appear to narrow the field of Democrats seeking to oust incumbent Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell to two political newcomers, Brad Freedberg and Mike Miles.

But state Democratic chairman Chris Gates said there are other potential candidates in the wings, although he declined to name them.

"There are other possible candidates," Gates said. "Once Gary makes a decision, there will be a window of time where people will make their decision."

Hart, who represented Colorado in the U.S. Senate for two terms after being elected in 1974, declined to comment through a spokeswoman at his law office. But Gates, who has fielded many media inquiries for Hart, emphasized there is no official decision by Hart.

"If he had decided, he certainly would have told me," Gates said.

Hart had told reporters and party officials he would make a decision by mid- January but missed that deadline and has made no public statements since about the race.

Freedberg, a Denver lawyer, said he has known for two weeks that Hart will not run. He said he made the decision to put $40,000 of his own money into the race after "someone close" to Hart called him and said Hart wouldn't run.

"He's out. It's Mike Miles and Brad Freedberg," Freedberg said. "The field is the same as it had been, but the uncertainty has been removed."

Larry E. Johnson of Boulder has also filed to run.

Miles, a Colorado Springs educator, said he thinks it's too late for anyone else to get into the race.

"I expect once Hart makes a decision, the field will be set," Miles said. "There are already a number of Democrats that are upset it's taken this long for the field to be set."

But Gates said it's still possible for another candidate to get in because Campbell's campaign has been lackluster.

"We are currently running against someone who is not raising money, who is not campaigning," Gates said. "He's made it clear he has no appetite for the political process."

Campbell has angrily denied Gates' claims that he might not run, and his spokeswoman, Cinamon Watson, said Tuesday that Campbell is "running strong all over the state."

"It doesn't matter who his opponent is," Watson said. "He's going to campaign on his record of accomplishment."

[jravnsbo]

sweet! 2 for 2.  Was hoping KA t harris wouldn't run adn Hart too.  I was thinking he wouldn't as time went on.  Safe GOP seat now for the only Native American US Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell ( R-CO)!

besides Hart is a has been.

WASHINGTON - Former Sen. Gary Hart likely won't run for the Senate this year, the Democratic Party's top Senate recruiter said Tuesday.

"Gary Hart has made it clear he probably won't run," said Sen. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

In a brief interview with The Denver Post, Corzine said Hart's reservations boiled down to "economics." He did not offer further specifics. Although Hart is a Denver lawyer who travels all over the world, he is not known to be wealthy.

Corzine's comments confirm what Democratic officials have been saying privately for weeks. It would appear to narrow the field of Democrats seeking to oust incumbent Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell to two political newcomers, Brad Freedberg and Mike Miles.

But state Democratic chairman Chris Gates said there are other potential candidates in the wings, although he declined to name them.

"There are other possible candidates," Gates said. "Once Gary makes a decision, there will be a window of time where people will make their decision."

Hart, who represented Colorado in the U.S. Senate for two terms after being elected in 1974, declined to comment through a spokeswoman at his law office. But Gates, who has fielded many media inquiries for Hart, emphasized there is no official decision by Hart.

"If he had decided, he certainly would have told me," Gates said.

Hart had told reporters and party officials he would make a decision by mid- January but missed that deadline and has made no public statements since about the race.

Freedberg, a Denver lawyer, said he has known for two weeks that Hart will not run. He said he made the decision to put $40,000 of his own money into the race after "someone close" to Hart called him and said Hart wouldn't run.

"He's out. It's Mike Miles and Brad Freedberg," Freedberg said. "The field is the same as it had been, but the uncertainty has been removed."

Larry E. Johnson of Boulder has also filed to run.

Miles, a Colorado Springs educator, said he thinks it's too late for anyone else to get into the race.

"I expect once Hart makes a decision, the field will be set," Miles said. "There are already a number of Democrats that are upset it's taken this long for the field to be set."

But Gates said it's still possible for another candidate to get in because Campbell's campaign has been lackluster.

"We are currently running against someone who is not raising money, who is not campaigning," Gates said. "He's made it clear he has no appetite for the political process."

Campbell has angrily denied Gates' claims that he might not run, and his spokeswoman, Cinamon Watson, said Tuesday that Campbell is "running strong all over the state."

"It doesn't matter who his opponent is," Watson said. "He's going to campaign on his record of accomplishment."

[NHPolitico]

Of course, what means more is how Vitter does head-to-head with John (which is probably still a toss-up), but at least Vitter will make the runoff...


A recent poll by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates Inc. shows Republican David Vitter leading the race for US Senate with his Democratic rivals Chris John and John Kennedy tied for second place. Vitter has 34 percent, John has 16 percent and Kennedy has 15 percent. Democrat Jim Bernhard polled 4 percent, and 31 percent of voters were undecided. The poll of 502 likely voters was conducted from Jan. 22-24. It's margin of error is +/-4.4 percent. The poll was commissioned by the Kennedy Campaign.

[jravnsbo]

any word if AG Inyouyeb(sp?)  is running yet or not?

Of course, what means more is how Vitter does head-to-head with John (which is probably still a toss-up), but at least Vitter will make the runoff...


A recent poll by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates Inc. shows Republican David Vitter leading the race for US Senate with his Democratic rivals Chris John and John Kennedy tied for second place. Vitter has 34 percent, John has 16 percent and Kennedy has 15 percent. Democrat Jim Bernhard polled 4 percent, and 31 percent of voters were undecided. The poll of 502 likely voters was conducted from Jan. 22-24. It's margin of error is +/-4.4 percent. The poll was commissioned by the Kennedy Campaign.

[jravnsbo]

Voinovich raises $5.9 million in U.S. Senate race

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Republican incumbent George Voinovich continues to hold a huge fund-raising edge in Ohio's 2004 U.S. Senate race.

New campaign finance reports show Voinovich has raised $5.9 million in total donations and has more than $4.6 million on hand as he prepares to battle Democrat state Sen. Eric Fingerhut.

Fingerhut, who served for one term in the U.S. House, has raised $515,000 total and has about $176,000 on hand, his campaign said.

Campaign finance reports for the three months that ended Dec. 31 are not due until Saturday night, but both campaigns released summaries to The Associated Press on Thursday.

Fingerhut's campaign, which raised almost $100,000 in the final quarter of 2003, said the fund raising had exceeded expectations. About 88 percent came from 3,380 individual donors, his campaign said.

His fledgling campaign is building momentum through grass-roots events such as bus tours and house parties, said campaign manager Raquel Whiting.

"In Ohio, because the Democrats have not been in power or won a statewide election in 10 years, it's really hard," Whiting said. "We are very proud of what we've been able to do."

During Voinovich's 1998 campaign for his seat, he spent $7.1 million to win 56 percent to 42 percent against Democrat Mary Boyle, who spent $2.2 million.

Voinovich is on track to raise that amount again. During the last quarter, he brought in $806,000 through events such as dinners, meet-and-greet gatherings and house parties, his campaign said. About 80 percent of the money he raised came from individual donors.

"We are extremely pleased with that number," campaign manager Matt Carle said. "The senator's strong fund-raising is a reflection of the strong support he has among Ohioans."

Former Cleveland City Council member Norbert Dennerll of Elyria has said he will run in the Democratic primary. His campaign finance reports were not immediately available.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voinovich is going to win big. If he gets under 60% I'd be suprised.

[jravnsbo]

I agree but a big win for him can't hurt Bush at all in Ohio.  

[NHPolitico]

Voinovich is going to win big. If he gets under 60% I'd be suprised.

Yep. It's all about taking races off the table. Slim pickings for the Dems.

[NHPolitico]

I agree but a big win for him can't hurt Bush at all in Ohio.  

He's had his differences over deficit reduction, but George is a steady backer of Bush's re-election.  He's like Specter. He's got a solid general election base. He only has to make it through the primaries, and he doesn't have an opponent there this year like Specter. I like George.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

DC's political report prediction

[Nation]

Any Democrats trying to grab Zell Miller's seat?

[jravnsbo]

just minor state rep/senators who have no money yet.

[© tweed]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

[opebo]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

Don't think you'll get AK.  As I've said before, its just too clearly against the real financial interests of everyone in the state.

[opebo]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

Wait, what about FL?  I think you'ld retain LA before FL.

[goobergunch]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

Don't think you'll get AK.  As I've said before, its just too clearly against the real financial interests of everyone in the state.

AK wouldn't suprise me at all as a Dem pick-up...in fact, it's probably the second most likely one.  And I don't think the Dems lose ND - you can't beat a Senator without a candidate.

In related news, a new KTTU-TV poll gives Knowles a 45%-41% lead with 3% for Sykes (Green).

[NHPolitico]

2-2-04

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Christopher "Kit" Bond appears to be in a comfortable position against his likely Democratic rival, state Treasurer Nancy Farmer.

Of those polled, 52 percent said they planned to vote for Bond, compared with 35 percent for Farmer. Only 13 percent said they were undecided.

Because Bond's "threshold of support is over 50 percent" and the undecided percentage is so low, Ali said, it could be tough for Farmer to defeat the senator.

Still, only 47 percent of those polled gave Bond a job approval rating of "excellent" or "good," which indicates that some voters might be persuaded to change their minds, Ali said.

Farmer's problem is that many voters don't know who she is. Only 28 percent said they had a "favorable" opinion of her, while 16 percent rated her unfavorable," and more than half - 56 percent - said they had no opinion.

Bond's "favorable" rating was 53 percent, while 38 percent gave him an "unfavorable" rating and only 9 percent had no opinion.

Lesage, for example, backs Bond, "partly because I don't know enough about the other person." She couldn't recall Farmer's name.

[opebo]

DC's prediction is a little...off.

I saw the Dems lose NC, SC, GA, LA, and ND, and we only pick up AK and IL.  Dems net -3 in my book.

Don't think you'll get AK.  As I've said before, its just too clearly against the real financial interests of everyone in the state.

AK wouldn't suprise me at all as a Dem pick-up...in fact, it's probably the second most likely one.  And I don't think the Dems lose ND - you can't beat a Senator without a candidate.

In related news, a new KTTU-TV poll gives Knowles a 45%-41% lead with 3% for Sykes (Green).

Yeah I agree about ND.. didn' t notice there in that quote.  But I'll be astounded if Murkowski can't remind Alaskans how much against their interests a Democratic Senator is by election day.  You just don't see many states where the issues are so narrow and so clearly defined by the national parties.  

[opebo]

2-2-04

Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Christopher "Kit" Bond appears to be in a comfortable position against his likely Democratic rival, state Treasurer Nancy Farmer.

Of those polled, 52 percent said they planned to vote for Bond, compared with 35 percent for Farmer. Only 13 percent said they were undecided.

Because Bond's "threshold of support is over 50 percent" and the undecided percentage is so low, Ali said, it could be tough for Farmer to defeat the senator.

Still, only 47 percent of those polled gave Bond a job approval rating of "excellent" or "good," which indicates that some voters might be persuaded to change their minds, Ali said.

Farmer's problem is that many voters don't know who she is. Only 28 percent said they had a "favorable" opinion of her, while 16 percent rated her unfavorable," and more than half - 56 percent - said they had no opinion.

Bond's "favorable" rating was 53 percent, while 38 percent gave him an "unfavorable" rating and only 9 percent had no opinion.

Lesage, for example, backs Bond, "partly because I don't know enough about the other person." She couldn't recall Farmer's name.

I think Bond always gets about 52-53%, so he's right on target.

[© tweed]

I've seen it that that Murkowski might even lose the primary.

No.  Not gonna happen, no prominent Republicans up there, really.

[jravnsbo]

Kerry’s Ascendancy Brings Louisiana GOP Opportunity

by Prof. Jeff Sadow
PoliticsLA.com columnist
posted by February 17, 2004
read bio

While on the national scene Election 2004 is getting less interesting – Democrats having practically no chance of taking control of either house of Congress, and, barring unusual circumstances, the incumbent president thrashing putative nominee Sen. John F. Kerry – it’s only getting more interesting in Louisiana.

Much of that has to do with Kerry’s consolidation of the Democrat Party’s presidential nod, a development for Louisiana Democrats that merits a “good news, bad news” appellation. The good news is that the Democrat standard-bearer now looks highly unlikely to be Howard Dean, who not only would not bring any coattails to aid Democrats running for national office in the state, but would actually subtract votes down the ballot as some people would vote for President Bush out of disgust for Dean and might feel compelled to throw in a vote for a Republican congressional candidate for good measure.

The bad news, of course, is that the Democrat standard-bearer now looks highly likely to be Kerry. He will be a drag on Democrat congressional forces in this state second only to Dean. Southerner John Edwards would do better, although likely he could not beat Bush in the state as well. When was the last time a non-Southern Democrat presidential won the state? That would be 1960, with John F. Kennedy, also a Massachusetts senator then and whose name Kerry tries to emulate.

But, Kerry’s no Kennedy, and it’s another Kennedy gives the GOP even more hope in the state for the fall. Treasurer John Kennedy has thrown his hat into the ring for the Senate seat being vacated by John Breaux. Joining him is the party’s favorite Rep. Chris John, and the Democrat side may become true chaos if populist Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell also enters the race.

With such a field, with Bush vs. Kerry at the top of the ticket, and a seemingly-united Republican Party behind Rep. David Vitter for the Senate seat, one possible scenario has Vitter scoring a primary knockout. Kerry’s presence also boosts the chances of Republican Hunt Downer (facing a split field of Democrats) to succeed the retiring Rep. Billy Tauzin, and putting another nail into the coffin of Democrat Rep. Rodney Alexander’s House career.

Anything could happen, of course, in the next nine months but Kerry’s placement makes for some good odds that the GOP will retain, inherit, or claim at least five of the state’s seven House seats (Jim McCrery and Richard Baker easily winning reelection, and Vitter’s seat almost certainly being kept in the party’s hands). John’s vacatation of his seat makes for good GOP chances in that district also, particularly if David Thibodeaux runs (who polled close to John when John first ran) and with state Sen. Don Cravins in the field (likely to make the general election but unlikely to win a runoff because he won’t get much support outside of the black community, Kerry’s wife being an African-American notwithstanding). Bill Jefferson could be the only Democrat left in the House delegation when 2005 comes calling, and for the first time in over a century no white Democrat will represent the state in the House.

And maybe not a white male Democrat in Congress, period, although, given the state’s weird blanket primary system that forces the general election to be a December runoff, the Democrats best bet may be to hope Vitter can’t win during the same election as the presidency’s, so then in the runoff fewer Democrat voters slough off than Republicans without a Bush/Kerry act headlining the ticket. Ironically, two years ago the GOP strategy was to flood the field against Sen. Mary Landrieu to force her into a runoff. This fall, with Kerry as the nominee, Louisiana Democrats’ only chance to hold onto that seat may be by following that strategy.

[YRABNNRM]

Anyone know whose running against the lovely Chuck Schumer?

[© tweed]

Anyone know whose running against the lovely Chuck Schumer?

No prominent Republican.  They basically have conceded that schument will win.  Peter King thought about it but decided against it.

A John Faso-type will run and get creamed.

[MarkDel]

Young Repub,

Unfortunately, it appears that my former home state will be stuck with Charles Shooma as our US Senator.