Early NH Predictions

[Gustaf]

i doubt deans numbers are going to rise more thne a few points anywhere, your right his only place to go is down, down,down... from his speech tongiht he looks like he should just quit now... what an idiot he sounds like

I agree, I just posted that somewhere...can't remember where though...

[MAS117]

yeah, what do u do as atlas pres, and is this the first one ever

[Gustaf]

yeah, what do u do as atlas pres, and is this the first one ever

I believe this is the first on ever. Exactly what he does...eh, don't ask such stupid questions, he...ehhhh...well, it's a cool thing...and we don't want the Republicans to win, do we? No formal powers have been established, though his word might carry some exrta weight, I suppose.

[MAS117]

no we dont want the republicans to win, i would of ran, but i digned up on the site in late december

[Gustaf]

no we dont want the republicans to win, i would of ran, but i digned up on the site in late december

Well, sorry mate. Maybe next time...

It's basically just for fun and it also gives a picture of the forum member's party alignement.

[MAS117]

il have to wait my 4 more years

[Gustaf]

il have to wait my 4 more years

Hm, yes that might well be right, we probably will only hold these together with the presidential elections. There might be mid-terms though, lol!

[MAS117]

im announcing my candidacy for atlas senate then, how about that

[Gustaf]

im announcing my candidacy for atlas senate then, how about that

You're welcome to do so. I think the only other NJ inhabitant is a Rep though, so there might be a tight race with a long recount...

[MAS117]

someone who just reigstered to vote in the presidential election is a dem from NJ too

[MAS117]

gustaf, check out the atlas elections page. i made a poll in there about it

[Gustaf]

I did, voted and posted!

Here are my early NH predictions:

1. Kerry

2. Dean

3. Clark

4. Edwards

5. Lieberman

Kerry is gonna surge, and it will be a tough fight between him and Dean over the top spot. I believe in Kerry's current momentum, and I think it will  be enough to give it to him in a tight race.

Clark is not going anywhere, and will be distanced by Kerry and Dean. He still has enough support to hold the 3rd place though. I think.

Edwards is also gonna get a boost, it will not be enough to push him past Clark, but it will take him ahead of Lieberman, who has Clark's problems but not his support.

Lieberman might drop out after finishing 5th and Clark will be hurt by a 3rd place. If Dean doesn't win, he's out.

[Gustaf]

Here, btw, is the latest NH poll.

Dean 28%
Clark 20%
Kerry 19%
Edwards 8%
Lieberman 6%
Gephardt 3%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 0%

That is the latest American Research tracking poll for Jan 16-18.

Liberman is gonna get chrushed. Kerry will  beat Clark.

[NHPolitico]

im announcing my candidacy for atlas senate then, how about that

What kind of senator would you be?

[Inmate Trump]

My predictions:

Dean
Kerry
Edwards
Clark
Lieberman

[NHPolitico]

I did, voted and posted!

Here are my early NH predictions:

1. Kerry

2. Dean

3. Clark

4. Edwards

5. Lieberman

Kerry is gonna surge, and it will be a tough fight between him and Dean over the top spot. I believe in Kerry's current momentum, and I think it will  be enough to give it to him in a tight race.

Clark is not going anywhere, and will be distanced by Kerry and Dean. He still has enough support to hold the 3rd place though. I think.

Edwards is also gonna get a boost, it will not be enough to push him past Clark, but it will take him ahead of Lieberman, who has Clark's problems but not his support.

Lieberman might drop out after finishing 5th and Clark will be hurt by a 3rd place. If Dean doesn't win, he's out.

The thing is that New Hampshire is much more susceptible to waves like this.  If there is a contested election like Monday night, a victor can build momentum. Edwards was a winner.  You don't need massive organization. You just need support from partisans and undeclareds.  You can get that from the media attention. Edwards might beat on Clark's support, too.

I'll be the first, second, third whatever to say it. Kerry-Edwards '04. If not, Kerry-Shaheen, maybe.

[NHPolitico]

If Dean doesn't win, he's out.

I agree. Dean has to win here.  It'll be an exciting week.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I listened to the speech on the radio (Radio5 did a joint broadcast with a public radio station in Iowa) and Dean's speech was one of the worst I have ever heard (which contrasted with Edwards speech which was one of the best I've heard)
What was Dean thinking???

Triumphalism after getting utterly humiliated?
Crazy!

[Gustaf]

I did, voted and posted!

Here are my early NH predictions:

1. Kerry

2. Dean

3. Clark

4. Edwards

5. Lieberman

Kerry is gonna surge, and it will be a tough fight between him and Dean over the top spot. I believe in Kerry's current momentum, and I think it will  be enough to give it to him in a tight race.

Clark is not going anywhere, and will be distanced by Kerry and Dean. He still has enough support to hold the 3rd place though. I think.

Edwards is also gonna get a boost, it will not be enough to push him past Clark, but it will take him ahead of Lieberman, who has Clark's problems but not his support.

Lieberman might drop out after finishing 5th and Clark will be hurt by a 3rd place. If Dean doesn't win, he's out.

The thing is that New Hampshire is much more susceptible to waves like this.  If there is a contested election like Monday night, a victor can build momentum. Edwards was a winner.  You don't need massive organization. You just need support from partisans and undeclareds.  You can get that from the media attention. Edwards might beat on Clark's support, too.

I'll be the first, second, third whatever to say it. Kerry-Edwards '04. If not, Kerry-Shaheen, maybe.

Well, you're the local....
If you're right, then

Kerry

Dean

Edwards

Clark

Lieberman

is a possibility. If the tide is really turning, then Edwards running second woul even be possible. In that case I think Dean, Lieberman and Clark will all be dead.

[Justin]

I think it will go:

Kerry
Clark
Dean
Lieberman

[Gustaf]

im announcing my candidacy for atlas senate then, how about that

What kind of senator would you be?

A Democrat...a fantasy one...what do you mean?

[NHPolitico]

im announcing my candidacy for atlas senate then, how about that

What kind of senator would you be?

A Democrat...a fantasy one...what do you mean?

A maverick? A quiet policy wonk? Etc.

[Gustaf]

im announcing my candidacy for atlas senate then, how about that

What kind of senator would you be?

A Democrat...a fantasy one...what do you mean?

A maverick? A quiet policy wonk? Etc.

Ah, OK, I see.

[NHPolitico]

ARG post-Iowa poll of 302 likely Democratic primary voters.

Kerry: 29
Dean: 24
Clark: 18
Edwards: 10

Kerry's new support, BTW, is apparently not rock solid. They could shift to someone else.

Dean's favorable rating is down dramatically (39% favorable, 30% unfavorable, 31% undecided last night compared to 57% favorable, 19% unfavorable, 24% undecided for the 3 nights ending Jan 19), which is the first step that voters take in moving away from a candidate.

The pollster also noted that, on radio stations he's done interviews with on polling since Iowa, in South Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, and California, every radio station has played, some more creatively than others, parts of Dean's speech in Iowa either while I was waiting to go on the air or during the interview.

[Gustaf]

ARG post-Iowa poll of 302 likely Democratic primary voters.

Kerry: 29
Dean: 24
Clark: 18
Edwards: 10

Kerry's new support, BTW, is apparently not rock solid. They could shift to someone else.

Dean's favorable rating is down dramatically (39% favorable, 30% unfavorable, 31% undecided last night compared to 57% favorable, 19% unfavorable, 24% undecided for the 3 nights ending Jan 19), which is the first step that voters take in moving away from a candidate.

The pollster also noted that, on radio stations he's done interviews with on polling since Iowa, in South Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Texas, Oklahoma, Arizona, and California, every radio station has played, some more creatively than others, parts of Dean's speech in Iowa either while I was waiting to go on the air or during the interview.

Interesting...Edwards would still need tp pick up though.