ARG- New Hampshire tossup

[Beet]

New Hampshire
likely voters Jun 9 Apr 1
 
George W. Bush 46%
John Kerry 46%
Ralph Nader 2%
Undecided 6%

MoE +/- 4%.

In their last poll on April 1 it was Bush 48-43-3. Granted, Bush probably dipped and bottomed out in mid-May and is now recovering. Or given the MoE maybe there has been no change at all. But Republicans were 35% of this sample while Democrats were only 29%. That might have been balanced out by oversampling of independents however.

This is kind of a litmus test for Kerry because if he can't win in his own back yard he's going to have trouble.

[© tweed]

I think NH will be 3% above the national Kerry avreage.  Kerry wins it in a 50-50 election.

[MHS2002]

I would think NH would be one of the first (if not the first) Bush 2000 states to switch to Kerry.

[© tweed]

I would think NH would be one of the first (if not the first) Bush 2000 states to switch to Kerry.

It's the first.  It's radically trending Dem baby.

[zachman]

Both Bush's and Kerry's (but particularly Bush) numbers in this poll were particularly high. Kerry will win it though by 6-8%.

[ElectionAtlas]

This poll is now posted