Feb 3rd Primaries: How will they play?

[NHPolitico]

Looking at the primaries held on Feb. 3rd, these could be the most interesting ones of all.

Arizona
Delaware
Missouri
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Carolina

Depending on how it goes in Arizona, I have it currently in the Blue column.........but after tonight's surprising Iowa caucus, I'm going to change my map and should Clark get the nomination, I think he'll win Arizona by 2% points.

Another one that should go to Bush is S.C......and if the primary goes to Edwards, it will probably stay in the Blue.   But should it go to Clark, Bush better start worrying......

I think Dean will win NH, but it will be narrow and Kerry will win most of those states and Dean will be done, but he'll stay in. Edwards will win SC. Kerry will win OK, MO, NM, AZ.

[NHPolitico]

I don't know about Clark worrying Bush so much. Are you talking about how the states holding primary elections in two weeks will vote in the general, or how they will vote in the primary?

Clark is the only one that has Bush scared.

It depends how one interpets the Iowa caucus--if one  can--Kerry getting it was a complete surprise to me.

If Iowans selected Kerry instead of Gearhart (favorite son type) or Dean (firebrand), as more on the basis if of beating Bush, rather that who they liked, it could mean that the other states may pick the best anti-Bush dem....... rather than who they "like"......

I think Bush would want Clark before Kerry and Edwards.

[NHPolitico]

As far as the Feb. 3rd primaries play out from the endorsement standpoint. I think that whoever finishes strongly in NH will take alot of those primaries.

Yes, I agree.  Kerry doesn't have to win. If he moves from third to a hair-breadth close second, he gets momentum and wins well on 2/3.  He's got money to run in these states.

[NHPolitico]

For the past few months all the pundits (and myself) have been thinking and predicting that Howard Dean would run away with the contest and waltz his way to the nomination.  Now I think that Dean, Clark, Edwards, and Kerry could all go to the covention with less than a majority of delegates.  I certainly don't think there will be a presumptive nominee by March 2 as I once thought.

Of course, that suits me just fine.  I'd like to see the dems beat up on eachother until July while President Bush gets to look presidential.

I think Dean is a paper tiger. He spent huge amounts of resources in Iowa. If he can't pull it off in NH-- strongly-- he's a non-factor. That makes it less likely of a brokered convention.

[NHPolitico]

I'm gonna wait until NH before making any further predictions.

Where's the fun in that?!

[NHPolitico]

if you look at dicks www it basically says he is dropping out tommorrow

At least he's bowing out gracefully.

He's still running ads here in NH. I guess the TV stations haven't gotten the word, yet, from last night that he's out.

[NHPolitico]

it wasnt offical till today

He could have pulled out publicly last night and then had a rally for his supporters in St. Louis today. I don't know why he'd wait to make it official.

[NHPolitico]

My sense was Edwards, Sharpton, Braun, Kucin., were in the race for dual purposes: to pay their dues in developing name recognition for future races and/or possible VP to demonstrate their ability to campaign, get some votes, and staying in to try to help the party educate the public on the issues.   I saw Edwards as a natural for a future run for the Presidency, but he's making a strong showing in the polls, etc....he's a viable candidate in this race, and not just a pretty face.

Hearing Kerry speak tonight was an eye-opener--I liked what I heard, especially the phrasing on special int. groups holding hostage, the right wing going after civil liberties.....

Sharpton and Kucinich and Braun are in it for speaking fees.