Feb 3rd Primaries: How will they play?

[Gustaf]

I don't know about Clark worrying Bush so much. Are you talking about how the states holding primary elections in two weeks will vote in the general, or how they will vote in the primary?

[Gustaf]

I don't know about Clark worrying Bush so much. Are you talking about how the states holding primary elections in two weeks will vote in the general, or how they will vote in the primary?

Clark is the only one that has Bush scared.

It depends how one interpets the Iowa caucus--if one  can--Kerry getting it was a complete surprise to me.

If Iowans selected Kerry instead of Gearhart (favorite son type) or Dean (firebrand), as more on the basis if of beating Bush, rather that who they liked, it could mean that the other states may pick the best anti-Bush dem....... rather than who they "like"......

Yes, that might be the case. But watch out for "nothing to lose"-Edwards, who will pick up now.

[Gustaf]

For the past few months all the pundits (and myself) have been thinking and predicting that Howard Dean would run away with the contest and waltz his way to the nomination.  Now I think that Dean, Clark, Edwards, and Kerry could all go to the covention with less than a majority of delegates.  I certainly don't think there will be a presumptive nominee by March 2 as I once thought.

Of course, that suits me just fine.  I'd like to see the dems beat up on eachother until July while President Bush gets to look presidential.

I am not so sure. I don't think that there's room for all of them to do good on Feb 3. One of them will most likely have to drop out by then.

[Gustaf]

i doubt anyone will drop out after feb 3rd besides joe l, kuchinch and sharpton are in it till the end... but if dennis drops hell endorse edwards most likely

I thought Kucinich endorsement of Edwards meant that he had dropped out already?

I think Kerry and whoever wins NH will keep in the race after Feb 3rd. But if Clark does poorly in NH, he might do poorly on Feb 3rd and then he will have to drop out. Kerry and Edwards are looking good though, and Dean still stands a good chance in NH, which might keep him in the race.

[Gustaf]

No what dennis said was that if he couldnt get the 15% of people at a caucus when they should go and join the edwards side, he is still in the race

Aha. Thanks for clearing that up. Why don't he drop out then, if he backs another candidate, why not drop out, since we know he won't win?

[Gustaf]

basically no one knows... hes a loser, pretty much his whole public life hasnt been that great, i guess for publicy is the only reason i can think of

Well, that's what I guessed. But starting to give out endorsements is probably a certain way of killing an already staggering campaign.

[Gustaf]

My sense was Edwards, Sharpton, Braun, Kucin., were in the race for dual purposes: to pay their dues in developing name recognition for future races and/or possible VP to demonstrate their ability to campaign, get some votes, and staying in to try to help the party educate the public on the issues.   I saw Edwards as a natural for a future run for the Presidency, but he's making a strong showing in the polls, etc....he's a viable candidate in this race, and not just a pretty face.

Hearing Kerry speak tonight was an eye-opener--I liked what I heard, especially the phrasing on special int. groups holding hostage, the right wing going after civil liberties.....

Mossy, have you thought about registering to vote in the Atlas Forum fantasy elections? We need you to beat the Republicans!