Rasmussen: Kyl(R) still in command over Pederson(D)
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  Rasmussen: Kyl(R) still in command over Pederson(D)
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Author Topic: Rasmussen: Kyl(R) still in command over Pederson(D)  (Read 2863 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« on: August 02, 2006, 08:13:47 AM »
« edited: August 02, 2006, 08:55:07 AM by olawakandi »

New Poll: Arizona Senator by Rasmussen on 2006-07-18

Summary: D: 34%, R: 53%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2006, 08:47:27 AM »

Once again I believe that if this race had the potential to become competetive, it would have become so by now.  Pederson is not the best candidate and as I stated before, most Arizonans seem moderately satisfied by Kyl's record in the Senate.  I have to admit, from a constituiency point of view, it would be obviously be better to re-elect Kyl who has already been in the Senate for 12 years and established a record of accomplishments and serves on a number of committees.  Pederson, a party hack, does not have the same appeal legislatively. 

I wonder if the lack of closeness in the race is actually, strangely because the DNC has not funded it or taken an active part in the campaign.  Pederson's touted advantage was that he was a self-fundraiser who could make it competetive on his own because he knew the territory.  However, perhaps the lack of DSCC attention, funding and ads and visits means that the Pederson campaign is floundering.  Just a thought.  I suppose in the end Pederson will be lifted by Napolitano's almost certain landslide in the gubernatorial race.  He should really finish at about the same margin John Kerry did in 2004, around 44%-45% of the vote.

Finally, sorry to be picky but its Kyl.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2006, 08:55:47 AM »

Once again I believe that if this race had the potential to become competetive, it would have become so by now.  Pederson is not the best candidate and as I stated before, most Arizonans seem moderately satisfied by Kyl's record in the Senate.  I have to admit, from a constituiency point of view, it would be obviously be better to re-elect Kyl who has already been in the Senate for 12 years and established a record of accomplishments and serves on a number of committees.  Pederson, a party hack, does not have the same appeal legislatively. 

I wonder if the lack of closeness in the race is actually, strangely because the DNC has not funded it or taken an active part in the campaign.  Pederson's touted advantage was that he was a self-fundraiser who could make it competetive on his own because he knew the territory.  However, perhaps the lack of DSCC attention, funding and ads and visits means that the Pederson campaign is floundering.  Just a thought.  I suppose in the end Pederson will be lifted by Napolitano's almost certain landslide in the gubernatorial race.  He should really finish at about the same margin John Kerry did in 2004, around 44%-45% of the vote.

Finally, sorry to be picky but its Kyl.

Sorry, but the truth is the Kyl is widely respected across the spectrum in Arizona.

Heck, the Democrats didn't even bother to run a candidate against him six years ago.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2006, 09:04:02 AM »

I am waiting for a Univ of Arizona State poll comes out, and we will see how competetive this race is.
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2006, 09:04:21 AM »

Once again I believe that if this race had the potential to become competetive, it would have become so by now.  Pederson is not the best candidate and as I stated before, most Arizonans seem moderately satisfied by Kyl's record in the Senate.  I have to admit, from a constituiency point of view, it would be obviously be better to re-elect Kyl who has already been in the Senate for 12 years and established a record of accomplishments and serves on a number of committees.  Pederson, a party hack, does not have the same appeal legislatively. 

I wonder if the lack of closeness in the race is actually, strangely because the DNC has not funded it or taken an active part in the campaign.  Pederson's touted advantage was that he was a self-fundraiser who could make it competetive on his own because he knew the territory.  However, perhaps the lack of DSCC attention, funding and ads and visits means that the Pederson campaign is floundering.  Just a thought.  I suppose in the end Pederson will be lifted by Napolitano's almost certain landslide in the gubernatorial race.  He should really finish at about the same margin John Kerry did in 2004, around 44%-45% of the vote.

Finally, sorry to be picky but its Kyl.

Sorry, but the truth is the Kyl is widely respected across the spectrum in Arizona.

Heck, the Democrats didn't even bother to run a candidate against him six years ago.

Did you actually read my post?
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2006, 09:37:53 AM »

I'm still a Pederson believer.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2006, 11:00:55 AM »

Cook has it lean Republican, maybe after the primary Pederson will get some momentum. Kyl hasn't had any competetition recently and we don't know how he will respond to a decent challenge now.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2006, 12:40:06 PM »

Look, one of the problems that has not been mentioned here is that Pederson has already spent about $3 million on advertising and seems to be getting no traction, nor any upward tick in his numbers.  This makes it less likely (logically) that any future advertising is likely to change the numbers as well.

Compare the situation to Webb in VA who has had little advertising because he's been cash-poor.  If this situation changes and he starts receiving some funds and advertising, it is much more possible that he might receive a bump just from that.

This is really the main reason at this time why I rate VA as a better pick-up opportunity for Democrats than AZ and probably better than TN also for other reasons.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2006, 01:11:27 PM »

It seems the Dems desperatly want to get some hope in this race.....
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2006, 03:31:21 PM »

I want to see an Arizona State Univ poll before I give this race to Kyl.
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nini2287
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« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2006, 03:34:21 PM »

I want to see an Arizona State Univ poll before I give this race to Kyl.

So you want to see a generally inaccurate university poll before you make a prediction on a race that has shown a Republican incumbent in a conservative state leading  by large margins in every single poll so far?
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Adlai Stevenson
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« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2006, 04:23:55 PM »

It seems odd that Virginia, Tennessee and next-door Nevada all appear to be closer for Democratic candidates than this state.  I suppose there is a lack of a Democratic bench here.  Arizona has been Republican, with the exception of 1996, since 1952.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2006, 04:27:44 PM »

It seems odd that Virginia, Tennessee and next-door Nevada all appear to be closer for Democratic candidates than this state. 
Not surprising at all. (Well, except for Virginia maybe, and that's not really much different from Arizona).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2006, 04:36:13 PM »
« Edited: August 02, 2006, 05:23:35 PM by olawakandi »

Uh, Nina, you say that this race isn't competetive and VA is, well a couple of weeks back Survey USA had it a 12 point race and the Webb race a 19 point race. Rasmussen overstates republican support. Just like he says that most people favor the death tax repeal, and most people don't favor it.

All I am saying is that AZ, NV, and VA aren't vulnerable as of yet and we have see if they become vulnerable. The republicans in those 3 states have lopsided margins consistantly. Whether it is research 2000 showing a 20 point race for Ensign, Survey USA correctly showing a 19 point race for Allen, and Survey USA showing a correct 12 point lead for Kyl.
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nini2287
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« Reply #14 on: August 03, 2006, 01:59:56 PM »

Uh, Nina, you say that this race isn't competetive and VA is, well a couple of weeks back Survey USA had it a 12 point race and the Webb race a 19 point race. Rasmussen overstates republican support. Just like he says that most people favor the death tax repeal, and most people don't favor it.

All I am saying is that AZ, NV, and VA aren't vulnerable as of yet and we have see if they become vulnerable. The republicans in those 3 states have lopsided margins consistantly. Whether it is research 2000 showing a 20 point race for Ensign, Survey USA correctly showing a 19 point race for Allen, and Survey USA showing a correct 12 point lead for Kyl.

When I have said Virginia is vulnerable barring Allen being outted as a homosexual?

I think we can both agree that both Kyl and Allen are ahead right now somewhere in the margin of 10-20 points, although the "correct" numbers are unknown (and frankly irrelevant).

What "correct" polling numbers do you have that show a majority of Americans don't favor the estate tax (death tax is just a term coined by far-right conservatives) repeal?
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2006, 02:43:46 PM »

I am waiting for a Univ of Arizona State poll comes out, and we will see how competetive this race is.

The Crank poll is one of the most inaccurate in the state.

It consistently overstates Democrats by about 8 - 10 points.

If you look at the internals, they are consistently way off.
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2006, 02:47:19 PM »

Once again I believe that if this race had the potential to become competetive, it would have become so by now.  Pederson is not the best candidate and as I stated before, most Arizonans seem moderately satisfied by Kyl's record in the Senate.  I have to admit, from a constituiency point of view, it would be obviously be better to re-elect Kyl who has already been in the Senate for 12 years and established a record of accomplishments and serves on a number of committees.  Pederson, a party hack, does not have the same appeal legislatively. 

I wonder if the lack of closeness in the race is actually, strangely because the DNC has not funded it or taken an active part in the campaign.  Pederson's touted advantage was that he was a self-fundraiser who could make it competetive on his own because he knew the territory.  However, perhaps the lack of DSCC attention, funding and ads and visits means that the Pederson campaign is floundering.  Just a thought.  I suppose in the end Pederson will be lifted by Napolitano's almost certain landslide in the gubernatorial race.  He should really finish at about the same margin John Kerry did in 2004, around 44%-45% of the vote.

Finally, sorry to be picky but its Kyl.

Sorry, but the truth is the Kyl is widely respected across the spectrum in Arizona.

Heck, the Democrats didn't even bother to run a candidate against him six years ago.

Did you actually read my post?

Yes!

Kyl is very popular in the state.

He'll do better than Bush did in 04.
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