AP/Ipsos Poll Bush 46 / Kerry 45 / Nader 6

[The Vorlon]

http://www.wjla.com/news/stories/0604/152580.html

The results are 10 paragraphs in or so

[millwx]

Interesting talk about jobs in there.  One thing every article and analysis fails to examine, and I *think* the numbers are not adjusted for this... On average about 3 million new people enter the workforce (or try to) annually.  So, there's a reason 1.2 million new jobs in 6 months has no tangible impact.  About 1.5 million new people have entered the workforce.  So, about 300,000 more Americans are unemployed.  And this will also get missed by unemployment numbers, since I'd bet the vast majority of that 300,000 are from the 1.5 million new entries into the workforce; having not been employed previously, they're not eligible for unemployment benefits.

Point is, the 1.2 million new jobs is definitely an improvement, but until/unless that rate of job creation surpasses the rate of new workers entering the work force, average Americans won't see the improvement and Bush's numbers probably won't improve.

Though partisans on either side may disagree for a variety of reasons (some valid), which two president's in the last few decades are generally viewed the best from an economic standpoint... Reagan and Clinton.  Not surprisingly, out of the last 6 presidents, including the current one, the ONLY two presidents under which job creation surpassed new entries into the work force is Reagan and Clinton.  Interestingly, those were the only two to win re-election as well.  Point is... mere "job creation" is not good enough.  It needs to be brisk enough to compensate for new employees.  The present pace of job creation, though brisk, is not quite brisk enough.  As such, more Americans are actually unemployed, so Bush is having trouble gaining traction on this issue.

[CARLHAYDEN]

http://www.wjla.com/news/stories/0604/152580.html

The results are 10 paragraphs in or so

This is very interesting on several grounds.

First, I've been a little leary of Ipsos as their experience is primarily Canadian.  Still a little leary but they seem to be really working at putting out a quality product.

Second, given the underreporting of economic good news by the liberal media, the disconnect from reality is quite understadable.

Third, if the improvement in jobs continues, even the liberal media won't be able cover it up, as people will notice more help wanted signs, employers becoming a little nicer to existing employees, etc.

Fourth, I suspect that just as in economics, employment a a 'lagging' economic indicator, so recognition of an improved employment picture is, among the public, a 'lagging' political indicator (I postulate a three month lag).