Bush approval rating drops

[Gustaf]

I wasn't sure about where to put this, so I decided to make a new thread for it!

Two recent polls show Bush approval rating dropping. ABC News and the Washington Post shows Bush overall job approval go down to 58-39, in favour of approve. That's still way too good to give the Dems a chance.

A Zogby poll was also released, and showed 50% negative and 49% positive on his job policies.

When asked to choose between a generic candidate and Bush, respondents chose the Democrat, 45-41.

When asked on whether Bush deserves reelection, the result was 48-41 in the negative favour (i.e. 48% wanted a new president).  

Is Zogby unreliable, or might Bush not have the lock on this election that we thought we had?

[Nation]

I've learned not to trust polls too much -- way too much time remaining to start thinking about approval ratings in regards to elections.

[Gustaf]

Ah, I misread the information in haste. Of course, both polls refer to overall job approval, I just mixed that up with policies on jobs when it came to the Zogby poll.

The ABC-poll shows Bush edging a generic Democrat 48-46 and when asked on who is best suited to handle the nation's problems, he leads 45-44.

58% thinks the economy is a bigger problem than terrorism, and 50% would prefer the Dems in congress to handle the economy, 43% would prefer Bush.

[NHPolitico]

I wasn't sure about where to put this, so I decided to make a new thread for it!

Two recent polls show Bush approval rating dropping. ABC News and the Washington Post shows Bush overall job approval go down to 58-39, in favour of approve. That's still way too good to give the Dems a chance.

A Zogby poll was also released, and showed 50% negative and 49% positive on his job policies.

When asked to choose between a generic candidate and Bush, respondents chose the Democrat, 45-41.

When asked on whether Bush deserves reelection, the result was 48-41 in the negative favour (i.e. 48% wanted a new president).  

Is Zogby unreliable, or might Bush not have the lock on this election that we thought we had?

Zogby uses a weird method where 100% of "fair" is considered disapproval.  Zogby also faired very poorly in the 2002 midterms.  Gallup pegged it perfectly in 2002. Just look at the Gallup job approval numbers. Re-elections are about firing the incumbent. If he's got good job approval numbers, he won't be fired.

[Nym90]

I agree that Gallup is the most reliable poll.

[Gustaf]

I agree that Gallup is the most reliable poll.

They messed up big time in Sweden though. In fact, so big that I will never trust them again.

[Nym90]

Ok, well then I stand corrected, and I'll say that they are the most accurate poll in the U.S.

They are also the oldest, having been around since 1936.

[Gustaf]

Ok, well then I stand corrected, and I'll say that they are the most accurate poll in the U.S.

They are also the oldest, having been around since 1936.

They did that classic telephone mistake with FDR, right? It's the same company in Sweden and the US, so I'm still suspicious of them...

[Nation]

They may be the most accurate poll, but that Frank Gallup guy on CNN or whatever his name is, he creeps me out.

[NHPolitico]

They may be the most accurate poll, but that Frank Gallup guy on CNN or whatever his name is, he creeps me out.

Frank Newport?



He's kind of a squirrelly guy.

[12th Doctor]

I wasn't sure about where to put this, so I decided to make a new thread for it!

Two recent polls show Bush approval rating dropping. ABC News and the Washington Post shows Bush overall job approval go down to 58-39, in favour of approve. That's still way too good to give the Dems a chance.

A Zogby poll was also released, and showed 50% negative and 49% positive on his job policies.

When asked to choose between a generic candidate and Bush, respondents chose the Democrat, 45-41.

When asked on whether Bush deserves reelection, the result was 48-41 in the negative favour (i.e. 48% wanted a new president).  

Is Zogby unreliable, or might Bush not have the lock on this election that we thought we had?

Zogby uses a weird method where 100% of "fair" is considered disapproval.  Zogby also faired very poorly in the 2002 midterms.  Gallup pegged it perfectly in 2002. Just look at the Gallup job approval numbers. Re-elections are about firing the incumbent. If he's got good job approval numbers, he won't be fired.

That's true and you have to remember that the state of the Union is tonight, so that number is bound to go up.

[Huckleberry Finn]

I'm now a little pessimistic. Few months ago I was sure that Bush is going to lose.  However, now economy and situation in Iraq seem good for him. Democrats must be very successful in their  campaign. I hope that they will.  

[NHPolitico]

That's true and you have to remember that the state of the Union is tonight, so that number is bound to go up.

Yeah, don't bet the farm on that. I just don't get a sense that that will be the case at all. I don't know why exactly, but I think people basicly are set with Bush. It's helpful to remind people of what he's done, but you can do that with ads, too.  Bush has a base of about 50% support and it goes up about 10 points and back down.  It varies based on what is on the news that day.  Bush is hoping for good news the week of Election Day.

[Justin]

I think it is still to early to predict who people will vote for, even when there hasn't been a democratic nominee selected yet. I'll wait till after the convention in Boston before I get worried.

[© tweed]

I'll say it again: poll don't matter until after both conventions.  the Dem could be up by 5-10% before the GOP convention and then Bush may pull ahead again.  Gore got a 10% bounce from his covention.

[NHPolitico]

I think it is still to early to predict who people will vote for, even when there hasn't been a democratic nominee selected yet. I'll wait till after the convention in Boston before I get worried.

You shouldn't be worried regardless of what happens in Boston or before then.  

[© tweed]

I think it is still to early to predict who people will vote for, even when there hasn't been a democratic nominee selected yet. I'll wait till after the convention in Boston before I get worried.

You shouldn't be worried regardless of what happens in Boston or before then.  

Why's that?

[Huckleberry Finn]

Gallup operate in Finland also. It is most  respected one. I worked there couple of months once. Salary wasn't very good indeed. But I was just student...so that I can handle it.

[Justin]

You shouldn't be worried regardless of what happens in Boston or before then.  

Maybe your're right. I shouldn't be worried. I am just a bit jittery that our state may go to to the Dems, I can't help it was NH that allowed Bush to have enough electoral votes to contest florida and  Bush nearly lost the state back in '00.

[Platypus]

Gallups Iowan, so of course its the best

[© tweed]

Gallups Iowan, so of course its the best

Iowans are proud of being Iowans?

[Gustaf]

Gallups Iowan, so of course its the best

Sorry to break this to you, but they suck. Period.

[© tweed]

New York is the best state.

[Gustaf]

New York is the best state.

No, Minnesota is.

[© tweed]

You aren't even from Minnesota.